Final ARG Tracking Poll NH: Bernie 53% (-1) Hillary 44% (+6)

[book_worm]

Since the start of the tracking poll a week ago Bernie is down 1 and HRC is up 6.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/nhdem.html

[Iliyah]

1. What I keep reading is that NH is unpredictable

and if Indies appear to see a close race in the GOP's race, they will focus on that.

[book_worm]

2. Given his 20-30 point lead in several polls, if Hillary even were to lose

by 10 or less that could be spoken of as a moral victory in Bernie's backyard.

[MarianJack]

10. Is that were to happen,...

...I'd love to watch the Berniebots heads EXPLODE if Hillary called it a "virtual tie!".

PEACE! I

[fleabiscuit]

12. Good idea.

There is no fundamental difference between BS supporters and Dump supporters.

Saying it is the new reality with BS believers. So I'll be saying that no matter what the number below 50% is.

If any.

[Cha]

3. Thank you for this, bookworm!

[Stuckinthebush]

4. I'm betting 7

Hillary will be down by single digits. That's a win for her in PR

[still_one]

5. Thanks book_worm

[NurseJackie]

6. It's not an outright win, but it's MUCH BETTER than I imagined ...

... especially considering the makeup of New Hampshire. It's a tailor-made state that plays into Bernie's strengths, he really should have done better than this.

This doesn't bode well for how he'd perform in a national election. Good thing Bernie will not be the nominee!!

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[cosmicone]

7. Undecideds are breaking for Hill yay!

[SunSeeker]

8. Wow. Hillary up 6 points in one week!

[George II]

9. If that holds it will give Sanders 13, Clinton 11. This means...

....we're back to the beginning again - Clinton 34, Sanders 34. But after New Hampshire (and Vermont on March 1), Sander's "firewall" is shattered. It'll be just a matter of how fast Clinton can get enough delegates to convince Sanders to concede.

[Treant]

11. Not quite the beginning...

Clinton holds the advantage with superdelegates in both states. An all-over tie between the first two states also shows severe weaknesses in the Sanders campaign and means the tie won't hold for more than two weeks or so...

[George II]

13. True. I've stopped counting Super Delegates for now because I get pounced upon...

....by some who seem to thin (hope?) that they're going to change their endorsements en masse.

If we were to include them then Clinton got 29 delegates last week in Iowa and regardless of the vote today in New Hampshire, she'll have more delegates than Sanders there, too.

The bottom line is that even with two of Sanders' three strongest states (Vermont being the other one, and Clinton already has three Super Delegates there, too!) Hillary Clinton has more delegates than Sanders.

[Treant]

14. Interesting...

The difference between land line and cell phone/other isn't that extreme. Given probable MOE, I doubt there's any statistical difference there at all!

It puts the whole "oversampled land line" story severely in question when the Bernie people use it.