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BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:17 PM Feb 2016

Could Trump Save Hillary in New Hampshire? A Primary Vote Scenario That Could Defy the Polls

In N.H., independent voters can vote in either primary — and Trump could snag some of the voters Sanders needs.

I'm not really counting on this. But I am perfectly happy to be pleasantly surprised. It could happen.

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/could-trump-save-hillary-new-hampshire-electoral-primary-scenario-could-defy-polls

... Everyone has an opinion about Trump, either for or against. And so the more of the voters, regardless of which way they are leaning on the Trump question, vote in the Republican primary rather than the Democratic one, the better the chances are for Hillary Clinton.

Democratic partisans like her far more than independent voters do, and in a primary purged of as many unaffiliated voters as possible, Clinton has a shot at an upset, especially considering the fact that her opponent isn’t even a Democrat at all.

That’s because in the New Hampshire primary, voters who aren’t aligned with either the Democratic or Republican Party can still vote in either party primary. Independents make up 43 percent of all New Hampshire primary voters, a figure that dwarfs the percentage of registered Democrats (who make up 26 percent of the vote) or registered Republicans (who make 30 percent). And political operatives with long experience in New Hampshire politics say that the group tends to decide late not only whom to support, but which primary to participate in. And they tend, in the words of Tom Rath, a consigliere to a host of GOP presidential contenders trying to navigate New Hampshire, “to go where the action is.”

Sanders and Clinton may trade barbs over healthcare policy or whose plan to regulate the banks is more robust, but the real action is on the Republican side. It’s not just Trump and his Van Halen reunion tour-size crowds and carnival barker insults. It’s all of them who sound like they brought Triumph the Insult Comic Dog to a debate: Chris Christie calling Marco Rubio a boy in a bubble, Jeb Bush calling Ted Cruz a backbencher, Ted Cruz inveighing against the Washington cartel and John Kasich calling out the whole lot of them for calling out each other. Democrats are debating the meaning of what it means to be progressive; Republicans are talking about ISIS chopping off heads, religious liberty, killing babies and carpet-bombing the Middle East.


******* Thank you to the very kind souls who have sent me hearts today! You and they are much appreciated.*******

22 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Could Trump Save Hillary in New Hampshire? A Primary Vote Scenario That Could Defy the Polls (Original Post) BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 OP
RE: Your Hearts rocktivity Feb 2016 #1
Done! :) eom BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #6
Whyever not? Treant Feb 2016 #2
Keeping the faith here ... BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #4
Let's hope so! Treant Feb 2016 #8
I heard one of the Trump/Bernie-bros call in to NPR this a.m. This was precisely his dilemma. Tarheel_Dem Feb 2016 #3
Agreed. BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #5
Hey, us white males have it tough. Treant Feb 2016 #7
Yeah! And we can't sit with our legs wide open on subways anymore! Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #10
I don't know that I would put it that way ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #12
In relation to other groups, I stand by "sought to ensure his success". His grand daddy, his Daddy Tarheel_Dem Feb 2016 #15
Okay. I see what you mean. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #16
Recent editorial romana Feb 2016 #18
Excellent article. It's been posted in the AA Group. "Fear" is driving the BS/Trump train, and that Tarheel_Dem Feb 2016 #22
Isn't it possible mainstreetonce Feb 2016 #9
Either way, I believe that you BlueMTexpat Feb 2016 #11
Absolutely ... I think the point of the piece was ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #13
I definitely think that could be a factor 72DejaVu Feb 2016 #19
I hope the stars are aligned for Hillary tomorrow, BlueMTex! Cha Feb 2016 #14
Yes. Dawson Leery Feb 2016 #17
It's possible.. HillDawg Feb 2016 #20
K & R Iliyah Feb 2016 #21

Treant

(1,968 posts)
2. Whyever not?
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:24 PM
Feb 2016

NH is so unpredictable due to the huge number of Independents, as we saw in 2008 when Clinton unexpectedly beat Obama in NH.

It could happen again, since the Republican field is no less insane and certainly the better circus, just as in 2008.

While I still expect Sanders +15 tomorrow, that certainly isn't writ in stone. The weather striking the Northeast (I'm so looking forward to it!) should tend to have some impact as well.

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)
4. Keeping the faith here ...
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:29 PM
Feb 2016


I sincerely believe that Hillary will be within single digits - if she does not eke out a win. She has momentum going into the vote tomorrow, much as her opponent's supporters like to dismiss that.

NH (and IA) both receive disproportionate attention and always have. Every time it happens, we all realize this, but nothing ever changes.

What will be, will be - and we will all live to fight another day.

Treant

(1,968 posts)
8. Let's hope so!
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:36 PM
Feb 2016

Regardless of the outcome, NH is Sanders territory. The worm turns again in NV and SC.

Then Clinton runs the table on Super Tuesday except for a couple minor states.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,234 posts)
3. I heard one of the Trump/Bernie-bros call in to NPR this a.m. This was precisely his dilemma.
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:26 PM
Feb 2016

He didn't know whether to vote for Trump or BS. These are his choices. He ended the call by saying that it's time someone looked out for the white working class. Although he was a college student, he seemed very adamant that nobody's looking out for his particular demographic.

They don't seem to grasp that the system has always, from its inception, sought to ensure his success. Now that others like BLM, the Dreamers, Women, LGBT, etc. are stepping up to demand those same privileges, they're feeling slighted. White male privilege lives on.

Treant

(1,968 posts)
7. Hey, us white males have it tough.
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:35 PM
Feb 2016

Why, just today I didn't get proper deference at the grocery store. I had to call the Earl. That's one checkout person who won't forget to bow again, I can tell you that.

Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
10. Yeah! And we can't sit with our legs wide open on subways anymore!
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:38 PM
Feb 2016

Who is looking out for us? Huh?!






I'd be very happy if the knucklehead Bernie Bros go where their hearts lead....to Trump.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
12. I don't know that I would put it that way ...
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:48 PM
Feb 2016
They don't seem to grasp that the system has always, from its inception, sought to ensure his success.


Not "ensure his success"; but rather, "the system has always, from its inception, sought not to impede his success.

But yes ... white male privilege lives on.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,234 posts)
15. In relation to other groups, I stand by "sought to ensure his success". His grand daddy, his Daddy
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 07:02 PM
Feb 2016

and all that came before him were assured success if they "worked hard" & "pulled themselves up by their bootstraps". At least they had boots.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,234 posts)
22. Excellent article. It's been posted in the AA Group. "Fear" is driving the BS/Trump train, and that
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 07:33 PM
Feb 2016

should scare the hell out of anyone claiming to be a reasonable, rational, thinking being. I sometimes get the feeling that these people would just as easily back Cliven Bundy, given their angst over the "changing demographics". I had a person/co-worker, whom I thought was a friend, who wouldn't vote for Obama's re-election because she felt he was the cause of the "all the racial stuff", and it "unsettled" her.

Trust me, there's a very disturbing flipside to the Donald Trump coin, and that's as much as I'll say about that.

mainstreetonce

(4,178 posts)
9. Isn't it possible
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:37 PM
Feb 2016

that Hillary could be helped by an anti Trump vote?

Independents who don't want to see Trump nominated may vote
R for anyone of the other candidates.

If .I were in NH I might think that way.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
13. Absolutely ... I think the point of the piece was ...
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 06:51 PM
Feb 2016

whether the independents vote, at all in the republican primary, it helps HRC ... whether they vote for trump or any of the other republicans, and for whatever reason, as they, then, will not be voting for Bernie in the Democratic Party.

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