This analysis was before the Iowa Primary, but it highlights why Hillary will be the nominee

[still_one]

regardless what happens in Iowa and NH:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/can-bernie-find-a-way-to-win-in-red-states.html

"Bernie Sanders's potential "path to the nomination" is obvious enough at its beginning: He needs to win or do better than expected in Iowa on February 1, then win New Hampshire eight days later. This will give him an overwhelming head of steam as the contest moves to — oh, wait.

Yes, the race moves south after a brief detour to Nevada (a caucus state where Clinton has a 3-2 lead in the two polls taken so far and heavy labor support). South Carolina kicks things off on February 27, quickly followed by the so-called SEC Primary (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia). Yes, four non-southern states (Alaska, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Sanders's own Vermont) will also hold contests that day, but the southern states have nearly four times as many total delegates and will get the lion's share of attention. Michigan and Mississippi follow on March 8, and then, on March 15, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. What these March 8 and March 15 states share with the South is a relatively heavy presence of minority voters in Democratic primaries.

And therein lies Bernie's problem: a complete lack of any demonstrated ability to appeal to African-American and Latino voters, as compared to Hillary Clinton's long-standing ties to minority communities and their leaders."

[stonecutter357]

1. K&R!

[Thinkingabout]

2. Hillary will be on a roll after NH, she will be collecting delegates at a faster rate than Sanders,

ergo, he will be the nominee. She will be gaining super delegates also. His campaign may have breached her database but they were not able to steal her workers.

[Cary]

3. How awful of you to state objective truth

[Lil Missy]

4. alerted

rational discussion of facts favoring HRC is not permitted on DU. Take it to a Democratic website instead.

wait, wut?

[still_one]

5. LOL, I wouldn't be surprised

[BlueCaliDem]

7. LOL! Nearly spat out my coffee, Lil Missy! eom

[Treant]

8. You're wicked.

Come over here and sit by me, we'll dish.

[leftofcool]

22. Stop it Lil Missy or you will be cleaning off my monitor!

[George II]

6. Of the 49 remaining states, Sanders is ahead in only two of them. There's no....

....."path to the nomination" if one can't finish ahead of one's opponent in more than 3 states.

After March 15 Clinton will have more than half the delegates needed to nominate.

[NurseJackie]

9. Do Bernie's fans not know this already? Are they ignoring it because it's too "real" to contemplate?

Is all the aggressive "enthusiasm" just whistling-past-the-graveyard? Do they think it will just magically go away if they pretend it doesn't exist? Do they honestly believe that IA, NH and VT are representative of the rest of the country?

Honestly, the behavior I've seen from them makes no sense to me.

[LannyDeVaney]

11. They are totally ignoring it ...

But I'm waiting until March to throw it up in their face so much they can't ignore it.

[still_one]

12. I think they may believe a staff will be raised, the red sea will open, and all Hillary supporters

will exit from the remaining primaries.

[NurseJackie]

13. Well... if they're pinning all their hopes and dreams on those three states ...

... it's little wonder why they were so desperate to characterize Bernie's LOSS as a "win". I have very little doubt that he'll win NH and VT ... but at the same time, I'm exceedingly confident that neither of these states will have ANY effect at all on SC or NV and/or the Super Tuesday states.

I've noticed that the "Just-Like-2008" meme (taunt?) has quickly faded. So, in that regard, perhaps their confidence is a little shaken.

Perhaps this explains the OVER-compensatory aggressiveness that some here (and elsewhere) are exhibiting. It's not just your ordinary "rah-rah" enthusiasm. It's definitely got that "oh-no, now what do we do?" appearance to it.

[Treant]

14. This.

Since Iowa, the most obnoxious Bernie people have been amazingly quiet on another site I visit. When they do say something, it's very clearly disengaged from reality or simply refuses to address the topic at hand entirely.

No, Bernie will not carry NH +30. No, he will not win the entire remaining 49 states. It's not going to happen.

Protest votes are fine, I applaud them, but when the recipient of your protest becomes a viable contender, it's no longer a protest. It's also time to take a look at what he stands for. And when they do, support seems to erode.

[George II]

16. The only remaining states where he has any chance of winning are NH an VT, with a total of...

....38 delegates, less than the 44 in Iowa on Monday.

IF he gets even 60% of those 38, his three strongest states will net him only SIX more delegates than Clinton in those three states, the ONLY states in which he is even close.

But even before Vermont votes (on Super Tuesday), Clinton will have out-tallied Sanders in Nevada and South Carolina by roughly 50-30. That means going into Super Tuesday she'll be ahead by 15+ delegates.

[NurseJackie]

18. I like those numbers. Someone REALLY should tell Bernie's fans very soon ...

... so that they can begin to adjust their expectations now, to prepare for his inevitable loss when it arrives.

I have a feeling that many of them are going to have a very difficult time of it when they finally realize that Bernie will not be the nominee.

[George II]

19. Well, at one point late in the summer it was claimed. ....

...that he was leading in all 50 states, so I don't think telling them the reality will change any minds.

[NurseJackie]

28. I'll bring the tissues...

... and the mop.

[leftofcool]

23. Well, Bernie has been compared to John the Baptist!

A voice crying in the wilderness and all. Why not Moses.

[still_one]

26. I guess you saw that movie also

[Lil Missy]

15. They honestly believe he will magically win the nomination, despite evidence to the contrary.

Last edited Thu Feb 4, 2016, 05:19 PM - Edit history (1)

Think about it - from the beginning they have been saying "he's winning", when he was 30 - 40 points behind!! Delusional? I think so! And my favorite was that we Hillary supporters were "shakin' in our boots" afraid of Bernie. Say whaaa??

Oh! And if he doesn't win, there will be a conspiracy theory to explain it, and the usual whining will ensue.

My feeling is that THEY (the rude ones) are the ones that are scared, otherwise they wouldn't have to be so rude and hateful to anything and everything HRC.

Just my 2 cents.

One more thing - I think the overall tone on DU will improve after Super Tuesday; I trust DU will not be the cesspool it is now in perpetuity.

[JohnnyLib2]

10. Bookmarked for bad days!

K & R. What a refreshing, long term look at the primaries. Thank you.

[Cha]

17. But, cornel west! Dissing President Obama.. surely that's gonna help!

Bill R ?@cmpnwtr
#BernieSanders strategy to diminish @POTUS @BarackObama -
6:34 PM - 3 Feb 2016
3 3 Retweets 4 4 likes

http://theobamadiary.com/2016/02/03/the-presidents-history-making-day/

Mahalo stillone!

[still_one]

20. Thanks Cha. This is exactly where he stands. I will save this information

[Cha]

21. You're welcome.. it's from The Obama Diary.. and they're pissed.

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. NC is here to undo the unthinkable if it happens.

[still_one]

25. Thank you North Carolina

[Jackie Wilson Said]

27. Something very important is missing. If the enthusiasm of the youth for Bernie is real, and

he is attracting more of them than Hillary, there needs to be a plan in place for when Hillary is the nominee to get this youth vote to still show up on election day.

This assumes she wins, of course.

These "yoots" are important and need to understand how important voting is.

[still_one]

29. You do realize this is the Hillary group don't you? Go peddle your wares elsewhere

Funny how some Sanders' supporters cannot abide by the rules of a special group.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

30. I thought I was being sincere and acknowledging her likely win. My post was in no way

meant to be critical of her or her campaign, only to point out this fact.

I want her to win if she is the nominee as much as anybody.

I mean if the polling shows the younger votes are choosing Bernie in larger numbers, doesnt Hillary's campaign know this and intend to deal with it?

I realize you are not on her campaign staff but I am speaking as a Democrat who simply wants to win the election.

[still_one]

31. Your sarcasm was noted in your original post: "This assumes she wins, of course", along with your

"favorite group" in your profile as being the Sanders' group.

So who are you trying to kid?

Obviously, you knew where you were posting, so it wasn't an accident

As a response to your original OP, if "if Sanders was the nominee", obviously something would need to be done to motivate Hillary supporters to come out and vote for him in the general election, since there are some who proclaim they are Sanders' supporters who have called Hillary every name in the book.

Double edged sword there bud, deal with that

[Jackie Wilson Said]

32. Now wait, favorite group? Is that a mathematical condition based on how many posts?

I at no time chose a favorite group.

And assumes she wins, am I supposed to know she will win no matter what?

Everything is assumes, until the election is over, right?

You are barking up the wrong tree here, trust me.

I want Hillary to be our next president if she is the Democratic Nominee, and to that end I am concerned about these polls and the youth vote and I was wondering out loud what the campaign had planned.

Given the youth vote is not very reliable historically. I am discussing what her campaign is surely discussing.

p.s. I have seen the endless attacks of Hillary and her supporters here by a certain group, so I get your defensive position, but trust me you dont need it with me.

BTW,. if you check now, this is my favorite group. So it is just a post count condition.

[still_one]

33. If so, then I apologize for thinking otherwise

[Jackie Wilson Said]

34. That's cool...I was just looking at this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1107&pid=41540


And I can barely withold my anger, this is unacceptable here.

[still_one]

35. I really am sorry I jumped at you. No excuse for what I did. However, the link you provided refers

to another link in the Sanders group, and that is their group to spin whatever conspiracy they want, ignoring of course the fact that 44% in NH are undeclared

[Jackie Wilson Said]

36. The link I was trying to take you to was a Hillary person calling out the Bernie group alleging

Hillary Clinton campaign is going to steal election.

I think that is what it is.

And I am outraged that this crap is tolerated here, alleging the Clinton campaign will steal the election, bullshit.

[still_one]

37. I understood your point