Bets on NH Primary? (Hillary Clinton Group)

[Treant]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/

538 currently has NH at +12.8 Sanders.

Does anybody want to pitch in an estimate at this point? I'm betting the race tightens, and I'm putting a gentleperson's bet on Sanders +10 when all is said and done.

[leftofcool]

1. Hillary has so much momentum, I think she wins or the race is within 6.2

She has already narrowed his lead and the women in NH control the Democrats. They are out in force for Hills.

[Treant]

2. I would say that

if she wins, or if the primary turns out at Sanders +5 or weaker, the Primary is pretty much over at that point. Sanders will have lost too much momentum/popularity to come back.

[Walk away]

3. Plus, they are pretty pragmatic....

they may prefer a realist to a revolutionary. I'm putting my dime on 6.5 for Bernie and that will be an embarrassment for him.

[George II]

4. If he wins by 12.8% (54.8 to 42.0) then Sanders will get about 14 delegates to Clinton's 10....

....but it could be two delegates either way. With the two largest (I should put that in quotes) homogeneous and rural states over and down with, the delegate count will Clinton 33 and Sanders 35. Other than Vermont, these two are Sanders' strongest.

My guess is that Sanders will win by under 15 points.

[comradebillyboy]

5. I will be pleased if she narrows the gap to single digits

and will be doing cartwheels for joy if she wins.

[Godhumor]

6. I'm going really wide range. He will win by 10 to 20

I don't think he will win by the 30+, but the demographics so favor him in NH that he should win comfortably.

Then comes two weeks of all the posts about how "Camp Weathervane" is freaking out. After that comes NV and SC and those voices will be quieted.

[NurseJackie]

7. He'll win the state, but Hillary will win the battle.

It's yet another state that's tailor-made to his strengths. Sadly for him, it's NOT AT ALL representative of what the rest of the country looks like. If he's having THIS MUCH trouble squeaking out a "virtual tie" (ie: LOSS) in Iowa, then he's got NO CHANCE AT ALL of winning the nomination... much less a General Election.

[yallerdawg]

9. Hillary and Bill are pounding NH!

City Hall tonight, debate tomorrow...

Put him down now - there is no tomorrow!

New Hampshire likes to rock the boat!

[LexVegas]

10. I think she closes to single digits. Within 8 pts. Then we can claim its a virtual tie. nt

[wildeyed]

12. If she does better than predicted

it will be the same as winning!

[Treant]

14. Yes. Yes it will.

So let's go into NH estimating Sanders at a kajillion points advantage and Clinton will win, in spirit, no matter what.

[pandr32]

18. Ha-ha!

[wildeyed]

11. No polls new polls since after IA.

Some were released, but none were actually taken since Monday according to Nate Silver. And O'Malley dropped out too. Where do his voters go? So I feel like I really need to see a few new polls before I commit to a prediction.

BUT. Clinton did WAY over preform there in 2008. ALL the final polls had Obama up. RCP final prediction was Obama +8, but the final result was Clinton +3. Off by almost 11 points! And the current NH polls are ALL over the place. So pending more info, I am going with a Sanders win in the single digits.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

[Treant]

15. New Hampshire polling

always seems to be way off. I think people enjoy flat out playing with the pollsters' emotions.

And it's never wise to sell Hillary Clinton short.

[wildeyed]

16. It is a regular primary?

Just statewide majority? And how do they register voters there? Is there a deadline or do they do same day registration? In my state, I always watch the registration totals and demographics to see which way the chips are falling. Then we have early vote and that gives some clues too. I can just go to my regular early vote site most years and figure out who is ahead by the demographics of who is in line.

[jmowreader]

17. Let me throw a wrench in the works

Sanders' supporters act a LOT like Free Staters - the anarchists who are currently trying to take over New Hampshire, and who have worn New Hampshire residents' patience very thin. Much more Bernie Bro Bullshit and it's very possible that Sanders could get stomped in a backlash against the Bros.

No Bernie Bro backlash: Sanders by 7
Bernie Bro backlash: Clinton by 5

[book_worm]

19. Bernie wins NH by 8-10 points

much closer than most polls have indicated.

[Stuckinthebush]

20. I'm with you, Book Worm

I think it will be within 10. Per Sanders supporters math, that's a win for Hillary!