Ignore the horse race silliness

[Stuckinthebush]

Last edited Wed Feb 3, 2016, 06:18 PM - Edit history (1)

If it was a horse race then our horse would be at the first turn while theirs was just coming out of the gate.

Let's go to the delegate numbers again....

After Iowa
Clinton: 385
Sanders: 29

Assume that Sanders wins NH by 30 points (it won't happen but go with it). So, a total of 24 pledged delegates would be divided accordingly. He'd get 16 and she'd get 8. SO...

After NH
Clinton 393
Sanders 45

Then, let's go to Nevada. Bernie has the MO, baby! Let's be kind and say he only loses by 6 and gets 47%. Clinton gets 52%. Those 35 delegates are awarded proportionately and we have:

After NV
Clinton: 411
Sanders: 61

Then....SC. Yikes. It's going to be nasty for Bernie there. He loses by 30 but let's be kind and say he only loses by 20 (60% vs 40%). SC has 53 delegates.

After SC
Clinton: 443
Sanders: 82

Then the big day arrives. Super Tuesday! A whopping 865 delegates are awarded. Given the demographics Clinton will easily win 60% of these. But let's be conservative Say she gets 55% of the delegates. She would have 476 and Sanders at 45% would have 389.

After Super Tuesday
Clinton: 919
Sanders: 471

These projections don't even take into account the new endorsements by super delegates. Let's be gracious and give Sanders another 29 which will bring him up to 500 and Clinton another 81 to get her to 1000.

You need 2,383 to win the nomination. By the end of March 1st, Hillary Clinton will at 42% of her goal and Sanders at 21% of his goal. The march in March continues to the point where, conservatively, Clinton will have around 1700 delegates and Sanders around 980. At the end of March Hillary will be at 71% of her goal while Sanders is at 41%

I'm being conservative here. This isn't 2008. Sanders can't get the POC vote in the remaining states that he needs NOR the super delegates because he isn't a true Dem. The majority of supers will support their party and that support goes with Clinton.

It's over before it started.

You will hear the other side laugh at our confidence and scoff at "coronation". They will opine that Sanders' movement of unicorns and college students will turn those very real and solid number upside down. That he will win all the remaining races (which he needs to do). That he will get the super delegates to switch support from their party stalwart Hillary Clinton to the Independent Bernie Sanders. That he has a movement we just don't understand......

It is all rubbish. The math doesn't work for Sanders.

Smile. March is coming.

[BigGLiberal]

1. It can't come soon enough.

In the mean time, we can listen to Bernie supporters go off the deep end when they call Hillary a liar at his rallies. I wonder if he knows how much damage they are doing to his campaign?

[workinclasszero]

12. They need the people they call liars and tools of wall street

to win the nomination.

Haters and idiots will be the death of bernie sanders pipedream.

Death by bros LOL

[kennetha]

2. K&R

[Lucinda]

3. MOM is already gone.

But your post is solid...it all about the numbahs.

[Stuckinthebush]

13. You are correct

I totally missed (or forgot) about that.

[pandr32]

4. It's the math Stupid!

So says the saying!

[Treant]

5. How many Sanders friendly states

are there, really? I had initially said IA, but he lost that in the end.

NH, VT, MA, and ME are really the only reliable ones. NV is a maybe, probably not. Minnesota is a coin flip (hopefully not literally because, wow, the screaming).

[Stuckinthebush]

6. But he won Iowa!!,

Not many. It's all an illusion.

[Treant]

7. Nyah, Nyah,

no he di'nt!

It's the first time I've seen walking out with 2 fewer delegates called "a win."

[Stuckinthebush]

9. It's sad

But they are in need of something for hope.

It's going to be a brutal March for them!

[Stuckinthebush]

8. I'm getting DU mail from a suspended member

I don't think they understand how this works. She/he is ignoring super delegates and saying that the delegate total is a lie.

Folks, this is what we are up against. Dreamers and people who don't understand the process.

Oh, my.

[Thinkingabout]

10. Furthermore elections are about majorities, I hear about democracy and we the people,

then when the majority of the people speaks then the decision should be accepted

[workinclasszero]

11. It is all rubbish. The math doesn't work for Sanders.

Every dog has his day. Bernie and his bros will be NH.

Its all downhill from there.

If the primaries started in large diverse states that actually resemble most of america, Bernie would be a forgotten election footnote already.

[mainstreetonce]

14. I can't wait to come to DU

and not read about Bernie all over the front page.

Go Hillary!

[Stuckinthebush]

15. It's going to be fabulous

Soon. Very soon!