Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumThere Was No Tie In Iowa. Clinton Won.
First, about Iowa. I see a lot of talk about how Bernie outperformed the polls. This is not true. He actually under performed. Opinion polls measure the overall likelihood of support from the statewide populace. However, in Iowa, that is not how the contest is measured. The Iowa caucus last night determined the number of delegates from individual precincts that would be sent on to the next caucus. Thats right. There are two more caucuses in Iowa before we know the number of national delegates going to the Democratic National Convention, and who they will be for.
...
So the actual number of delegates is actually not known until later in the process. However, since there are rarely dramatic shifts in delegate alignment later in the process, traditionally we are able to make a good estimate of the number of national delegates and who they will be for. Which brings us to the actual percentage for Clintons victory: 52.3%.
Thats right. Of the delegates that were apportioned last night in the first in nation caucus, 23 out of 44 went to Clinton. A clear victory.
It is a great blog that discusses the arcane system and point out...
So now it is important for Clinton supporters to turn to those states where Clinton has a commanding lead (which is most of them), and to the national conversation, to protect the delegate lead and to counter the anti-Clinton tea party narrative being delivered by Bernie and his supporters.
pandr32
(11,588 posts)Let's deal in reality, and while we are at it, some gracious or gentlemanly behavior from Sanders would be nice.
72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)When the woman gets more votes, it's a tie.
Cha
(297,305 posts)Cha
(297,305 posts)And Bernie still has no path to the nomination.
First, about Iowa. I see a lot of talk about how Bernie outperformed the polls. This is not true. He actually under performed. Opinion polls measure the overall likelihood of support from the statewide populace. However, in Iowa, that is not how the contest is measured. The Iowa caucus last night determined the number of delegates from individual precincts that would be sent on to the next caucus. Thats right. There are two more caucuses in Iowa before we know the number of national delegates going to the Democratic National Convention, and who they will be for.
snip//
So now it is important for Clinton supporters to turn to those states where Clinton has a commanding lead (which is most of them), and to the national conversation, to protect the delegate lead and to counter the anti-Clinton tea party narrative being delivered by Bernie and his supporters.
Innuendo, smears, and implications are not legitimate policy comparisons. There is nothing wrong with being paid for a speech, unless you are saying that Clinton is corrupt. These tea party innuendos have no place on the left or in the Democratic party.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Cha
(297,305 posts)And, excellent advice!
George II
(67,782 posts)....of how voters going into the various caucus sites were likely to vote, state-wide.
Two things they do not take into account are:
Breakdown of voters in each district
Effect of the caucus itself - the short speeches by each candidate's representative.
Sanders had very strong support in a few districts where there were many college students and much weaker support in many of the other districts. Clinton, on the other hand had more uniform support throughout the state.
So, Sanders could have won his few strong districts by 90-10 (an exaggeration) but lost in most of his weak districts by 52-48 (another exaggeration). But all the "excess" support in those few districts was essentially "wasted" because he'd already won those districts.
This is a bizarre analogy (please don't laugh at me!), but let's look at the 1960 World Series between the NY Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates. Think of each game as an Iowa district.
Here are the scores:
New York Yankees 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 6
New York Yankees 16, Pittsburgh Pirates 3
Pittsburgh Pirates 0, New York Yankees 10
Pittsburgh Pirates 3, New York Yankees 2
Pittsburgh Pirates 5, New York Yankees 2
New York Yankees 12, Pittsburgh Pirates 0
New York Yankees 9, Pittsburgh Pirates 10
The Yankees scored more than twice the runs than the Pirates, yet they lost the World Series because they won three games by huge scores (+13, +10, +12!) while the Pirates won four games by smaller margins (+2, +1, +3, +1)
The result is that even though outscored overall by 30 runs the Pirates won the World Series. That, to an extreme, is how things went in Iowa on Monday. Sanders won some districts by huge margins, but Clinton won more districts by smaller margins.
Cha
(297,305 posts)Unions, Dems, and POC went for Hillary.. not the other guy.
A majority of Democratic caucus-goers, 55 percent, said the next president should generally follow Barack Obamas policies, rather than pursue more liberal or less liberal approaches. And those who lined up with Obama were an especially strong group for Clinton, 68-26 percent vs. Sanders.
LOve it!
"Finally in the Democratic contest theres the question of race. Whites accounted for 91 percent of Democratic caucus-goers a lot, even if low by Iowa Democratic caucus standards. Whites also dominate in New Hampshire. But they accounted for 65 percent of voters across all Democratic primaries in 2008. And among the 9 percent of non-white Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa on Monday, Clinton won by a wide margin, 58-34 percent."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/schisms-carve-iowa-contests-leaving-murky-political-calculus/story?id=36656482
Unions~
Ari Melber
✔ ?@AriMelber
And Clinton beat Sanders among union households by 9 points, undercutting some conventional wisdom.
7:38 PM - 1 Feb 2016
189 189 Retweets 153 153 likes
SEIU
✔ ?@SEIU
@HillaryClinton won this close, hard battle with strong SEIU ground support & turn out! #ImWithHer #SEIUForHillary https://twitter.com/AriMelber/status/694394551327391744
4:05 AM - 2 Feb 2016
25 25 Retweets 34 34 likes
http://theobamadiary.com/2016/02/02/early-bird-chat-655/#comments
Cha
(297,305 posts)I got on and thanked them for what they had to say about Hillary.
The first poster there is an AA girl.. she said this.. I Liked it.
Mochaloca 13 hours ago
He was supposed to win that state to have a path to victory. Instead we made History with a woman and a Clinton winning in Iowa!
I cannot wait for the South so we can end this primary.
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)But somehow when I state that Hillary still did win, I'm castigated by the Bernie supporters as being part of the conspiracy.
comradebillyboy
(10,154 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Some real gems there.
Treant
(1,968 posts)I'm glad it was posted, I'm rather enjoying this.