Why is Super Tuesday called a firewall? Well, just look at the odds by state

[Godhumor]

Alabama
H - 85%
B - 15%

Arkansas
H - 87%
B - 13%

Colorado
H - 56%
B - 44%

Georgia
H - 86%
B - 14%

Massachusetts
H - 64%
B - 36%

Minnesota
H - 58%
B - 42%

Oklahoma
H - 82%
B - 18%

Tennessee
H - 84%
B - 16%

Texas
H - 85%
B - 15%

Vermont
B - 92%
H - 8%

Virginia
H - 82%
B - 18%

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-primaries#March1DEM

Posted the same info in GDP, but, yeah. We're going to have to deal with a lot of horserace stories over the next month, especially after Bernie wins NH (He will, but the margin of victory is still uncertain), but all that changes the morning of March 2nd.

[Cha]

1. Thank you for this, GH! I wonder what the percentages are in NY where Hillary was Senator?

I see Arkansas where she was First Lady is all in for Hillary!

Hillary WON Iowa~We WON!

[DURHAM D]

2. just going to add a little more info

Alabama - Open primary
Arkansas - Open primary
Colorado - Closed caucus
Georgia - Open primary
Massachusetts - Semi-closed primary
Minnesota - Open caucus
Oklahoma Semi-closed primary
Tennessee - Open primary
Texas - Open primary
Vermont - Open primary
Virginia - Open primary
American Samoa - closed caucus
Democrats abroad - closed primary

ETA:
Delegates from each state (pledged)
Alabama 52
American Samoa 4
Arkansas 32
Colorado 64
Democrats abroad 13
Georgia 98
Massachusetts 95
Minnesota 78
Oklahoma 38
Tennessee 68
Texas 208
Vermont 15
Virginia 95

[beachbum bob]

3. the open primary can be a concern if any significant GOP crossovers to impact

by voting for bernie...likelihood not great as they have their internal fights going on with split sport across several candidates....but can not be discounted for sure

[DURHAM D]

4. True.

That is why I hope the Rep. primary drags on and on.

[LannyDeVaney]

6. Exactly ...

lots of folks have their heads in the sand, and the media is just pushing a "horserace" for ratings.

If one takes a step back and looks at the numbers, as well as the delegate math, Sanders has almost no shot at the nomination.

Let the Sanders supporters have their tartar sauce for the next 4 weeks. It's a small price to pay for the nation's first female President, as Mrs. Clinton returns to the White House in '17, with a Democratic Senate in tow.

[Walk away]

7. The demographics of most of those states reflect the Democratic party.

We are a big tent ethnically and racially. The first two primaries don't reflect our real party makeup.

[Hekate]

18. I keep telling "them" that the Dem Party is a big tent, but they keep trying to define it...

...as smaller and smaller and smaller, down to a pup tent full of "revolutionaries" who are pure of heart and are the only "true" progressives, liberals, and Democrats in the country. Led by Sanders, of course.

Our diversity is our strength -- diversity of ethnicity, gender, economic class, social class, and opinion.

[Walk away]

21. It is why their will be a Democratic President for decades to come.

Republicans will never be able to change the bigoted, intolerant face of their party.

[GusBob]

8. You're a poll guy, so devil's advocate question.....

how did the final results in IOWA compare to the polls?

and how would one account for the differences?

and why should these ST polls be trusted?

[William769]

10. The last poll in Iowa was within the margin of error for what happened.

So yes I would say the polls can be trusted.

[Stuckinthebush]

16. Which polls were closest?

I wonder who had the best prediction. Of course, caucuses are weird and things can change based on the 15% rule which can mess up poll predictions.

[GusBob]

9. Prediction

SBS will take Vermont fer sure and will be more competitive in Colo, Minn, and Mass than these polls suggest

he may actually win Colo and Minn

[Godhumor]

12. To clarify, these aren't polls, they're odds on winning the state

Not whether they'd be close wins or not, just the chance of winning.

[GusBob]

14. D'oh!! Thanks for the info

[Walk away]

22. I thought Colorado was a closed primary state.

Almost 20% of Bernie's votes last night were from Independents. If Iowa had been closed to folks outside the party, Hillary would have won by a landslide.

[William769]

11. Well thats one firewall to stop the Bern!

[book_worm]

13. Super Tuesday only sure state for Bernie is Vermont...

outside chance I would say in Colorado & Minnesota, but I believe everything else (even MA--where even in 2008 Hillary bucked the Kennedy's endorsement of President Obama) is solidly for Hillary.

[NurseJackie]

15. Looking at these numbers, it's easy to see that Bernie will not be the nominee. But I wonder ...

... is there some other data that Bernie's fans are looking at that makes them believe so strongly otherwise? (I mean, OTHER than "rally size" vs "town hall" size and OTHER than counting bumper stickers.)

[book_worm]

19. I don't think so--they touted his huge rally in Des Moines with pictures comparing and contrasting

it with a smaller key Hillary rally and yet Des Moines (Polk County) went solidly for Hillary--in fact, it more than provided her victory margin--so why didn't that huge rally translate into votes? because as we have said many times--rally crowds don't translate into votes. If they did we would have had President McGovern who routinely got bigger crowds than Nixon did in 1972, for example.

[Bleacher Creature]

23. I don't think so either.

They're focusing on the fact that he's leading in NH and was extremely competitive in IA and assuming that the other states will follow suit once the focus shifts. It's an argument that completely ignores demographics.

[Stuckinthebush]

17. This is why Sanders is toast

They don't like to hear that because they believe his momentum from this loss-win will switch the states above from Clinton to Sanders massive wins. They really don't want to see the math. It's kind of sad.

[Bleacher Creature]

20. I have nothing against the citizens of IA and NH.

But giving those states such a disproportionate amount of influence is ridiculous. If they voted at the same time as everyone else, the way the race would be covered by the media would be completely different.

HRC is still in an extremely strong position. And yet all we are hearing about is whether she underperformed in IA, and how she's an underdog in NH.