Iowa Caucus thread # 1 Add what you want

[riversedge]

Governor Mark Dayton and 2 others follow
Luke Hellier ?@lukehellier 1m1 minute ago

Standing Room Only. Clive, IA. #iacaucus

[riversedge]

1. See the results come in here:

Scott Sanborn ?@sanborn_scott 3m3 minutes ago

See the results come in here: http://cbs2iowa.com/news/elections
#IACaucus @LiveonCBS2

[stonecutter357]

2. K&R!

[workinclasszero]

3. Cnn, CBSN and MSNBC

All say Hillary has a lead!

[riversedge]

5. i am a do not count the chicks till hatched but

I am ready to SCREAM --madam president

[workinclasszero]

8. Me too!

[asuhornets]

22. Me three!!!

[OhZone]

47. Me 4!

But so far so good! OHYEAH!

[riversedge]

4. All sorts of ANECDOTAL reports on my text line – long lines, running out of voter registration mater

LOOK---Huma is following also.





Huma Abedin and 16 others follow
O. Kay Henderson ?@okayhenderson 5m5 minutes ago

All sorts of ANECDOTAL reports on my text line – long lines, running out of voter registration materials @ #IACaucus sites
1 retweet 0 likes

Sean Gallitz and 3 others follow
Jared Small ?@jaredsmall 5m5 minutes ago

Hearing one Mills county precinct has TRIPLE number of participants than they did in 2012. That's aggressive. #iacaucus

[workinclasszero]

6. Bad news Bernie

KingFlorez

14. These are the entrance poll numbers

CNN is saying that the number of first time caucus goers is way down from 2008, where 60% of caucus goers were new. Only about 42% are new this time around. Not great news for Sanders


This from KingFlorez.....bad news for Bernie!

[riversedge]

9. well...

yes but maybe some of these folks will vote for Hillary

[riversedge]

7. uuuuu...

Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 8m8 minutes ago

DSM 118: 2-1 Sanders advantage, standing room only #IACaucus
4 retweets 3 likes

[johnp3907]

10. Caucus!!!

https://m.

[workinclasszero]

11. Nothing but good numbers for Hillary so far

Just heard on cbsn!

[riversedge]

13. I keep hearing high turnout also

[BlueCaliDem]

17. Just head Steve Kornacki on MSNBC say it's around 44% for first-time caucus goers.

[riversedge]

12. 43% of Repubs (and 41% of Dems) who are attending caucuses tonight are doing so for the first time e

Frank Luntz Verified account ?@FrankLuntz 15m15 minutes ago

43% of Repubs (and 41% of Dems) who are attending caucuses tonight are doing so for the first time ever.

[riversedge]

14. 60% Clinton 35% Sanders

@IAStartingLine
DSM 65 (south side): Big turnout, current guess of support:
60% Clinton
35% Sanders
5% O'Malley
#IaCaucus

[riversedge]

15. tweets...

Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 8m8 minutes ago

WDM 115: "Tonight we have an opportunity to send a message that it's not the same-old, same-old" Sanders rep
Embedded image permalink
4 retweets 17 likes

Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 10m10 minutes ago

.@BernieSanders rep up to speak, just heard he was doing it. Reads off message I think from campaign #IACaucus
View photo
3 retweets 9 likes

Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 11m11 minutes ago

DSM 80: biggest turnout my friend has ever seen. Ran out of reg forms. Seems evenly split early on #IACaucus

[riversedge]

16. CBS releasing this estimate. Looking fantastic for HRC. Crossing everything for this to be correct.

Dylan H Morris. ?@dylanhm 6m6 minutes ago

CBS releasing this estimate. Looking fantastic for HRC. Crossing everything for this to be correct. #IACaucus
View photo
1 retweet 2 likes




Greg Neumann ?@gneumann_wkow 9m9 minutes ago Johnston, IA

The caucus still has not started at this Democratic Precinct due to the long lines. #iacaucus #WKOW

[riversedge]

18. Top news View all Link to headline article Entrance polls: Early edge to Trump, Clinton Blue-collar

Top news

Entrance polls: Early edge to Trump, Clinton
Blue-collar voters are propelling Trump.



Feb 01, 2016
Search results

Photos
View all
Image gallery thumbnail

[GusBob]

19. Crossing everything, ,,,,had think about that

Crossing fingers for luck,,,,took me a bit

[72DejaVu]

20. Kornacki says only 17% young voters

WAY under youth turnout in '08

[riversedge]

21. I heard that too but was not sure I heard correctly....

te he. one of my hearing aids battery is peeping. I need to find a new one.

[riversedge]

23. @FiveThirtyEight 17-to-29-year-olds on the Democratic side are going 91 percent to 8 percent for

FiveThirtyEight Verified account
?@FiveThirtyEight

17-to-29-year-olds on the Democratic side are going 91 percent to 8 percent for Sanders over Clinton: http://53eig.ht/1SzwzjX #IACaucus

[riversedge]

25. 6 percent in, it’s Clinton 52.5 percent to Sanders 46.6 percent:

FiveThirtyEight ?@FiveThirtyEight 3m3 minutes ago

So far, with 6 percent in, it’s Clinton 52.5 percent to Sanders 46.6 percent: http://53eig.ht/23FpzXW #IACaucus

[Treant]

24. Looks good for Hills...

College voters didn't go home, concentrating Sanders' support. Youth vote around 17%, turnout high.

[riversedge]

28. 10%: 52.8 Hillary, 46.6 Bernie, .6 O'Malley

10%: 52.8 Hillary, 46.6 Bernie, .6 O'Malley

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

[Treant]

30. Ten percent of precincts.

The larger ones tend to be later, so that could easily be overwhelmed!

But a good start, good start!

[displacedtexan]

26. Per CNN, with 9% reporting

Clinton 53%
Sanders 46%

Plus, the vast majority of Dems in attendance want to continue Obama's policies... NOT go farther left of center. Hmmm.

[nolabear]

27. I am so happy to see her ahead. Youth didn't support only him and we old people vote!

I hope this holds.

[Agnosticsherbet]

29. This is idpcaucuses.com for Democrats

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

[riversedge]

31. a few results......

Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 8m8 minutes ago

DSM Precinct 52 went 39 Bernie, 33 Hillary. 3 delegates to Bernie, 2 to Hillary. #IACaucus
10 retweets 15 likes

Madam President and 2 others follow
Nathan Williams ?@nathanmwilliams 9m9 minutes ago

@IAStartingLine "Recruit 34 attendees from Sanders to win another delegate."
View conversation
0 retweets 0 likes
Matt Bennett ?@BennettInWA 9m9 minutes ago

@JChaseWilliams @IAStartingLine Line up your number of posts anti-Sanders versus Hillary support.
View conversation
0 retweets 0 likes
Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 9m9 minutes ago

WDM 315: 117 Hillary 84 Bernie O'Malley unviable #IACaucus
24 retweets 11 likes

[riversedge]

35. Clinton is leading in considerably more counties than Bernie Sanders:

FiveThirtyEight ?@FiveThirtyEight 3m3 minutes ago

Hillary Clinton is leading in considerably more counties than Bernie Sanders: http://53eig.ht/1nBaCoO #IACaucus

[yallerdawg]

32. CNN just reported an 2008 Obama victory caucus site...

in Des Moines just went 57% Hillary, 42% Sanders!

Somebody is no Obama?

[GusBob]

33. 2008 this ain't !

Can bury that meme now

[CajunBlazer]

36. How about: Bernie Sanders is no Barack Obama

That's my favorite!

[GusBob]

44. Mine too

[Politicub]

39. I think most everyone knew Sanders is no Obama

Unless they've been berned by the light or whatever.

[sheshe2]

43. Lol!

Truism!

[riversedge]

46. :-)

[CajunBlazer]

34. CNN: 21% of Caucus sites in:

Hillary - 53%

Sanders - 47%

O'malley - 0%

[CajunBlazer]

40. Now 25%

Still:

Hillary - 53%

Sanders - 47%

O'malley - 0%

[Politicub]

37. Go, Hillary, go!!

It was great listening to Progress on XM on the way home from work. There were a lot of people positive about Hillary and some positive about Bernie. I didn't hear one person that said they would withhold their vote if their chosen candidate doesn't win.

I'm glad I turned in. I'm proud of our candidate, and hope she comes out on top in Iowa this evening.

[riversedge]

38. Hillary Clinton6 52.9% 117 Bernie Sanders 46.6% 103 391 of 1,681 precincts reportingSource: Associa

Democrats

CANDIDATESDELEGATES PERCENTAGE VOTES

Hillary Clinton6 52.9% 117

Bernie Sanders 46.6% 103

Martin O'Malley 0.5% 1

Other 0.0% 0

Uncommitted2 0.0% 0

391 of 1,681 precincts reportingSource: Associated Press

Vote totals for Democratic caucuses are S

[riversedge]

42. WDM 115: Clinton wins 4-2 delegates over Sanders #IACaucus and pic...

Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 9m9 minutes ago

WDM 115: Clinton wins 4-2 delegates over Sanders #IACaucus

[riversedge]

45. Johnson Cty being reported and shown now by msnbc in detail..

Rather huge crowd for Sanders


Hope they show one with Hillary crowd. optics not good for me

[BlueStateLib]

41. Nerve wracking

[riversedge]

48. Sanders is closing as more votes have been reported:

I need a break. I swore i was not going to do this and here I am doing it!


Harry Enten 9:11 PM

I should point out that Sanders is closing as more votes have been reported. Clinton is up 51.8 percent to Sanders 47.6 percent. That’s with 34 percent of precincts reporting. And literally as I refresh it’s 36 percent of precincts and now it’s 51.5 percent to 48 percent.




FiveThirtyEight ?@FiveThirtyEight 6m6 minutes ago

Sanders is closing as more votes have been reported: http://53eig.ht/1PR7jH4 #IACaucus

[yallerdawg]

49. 1st in State - Lucas County 100% reporting!

60% Hillary, 40% Sanders!

[riversedge]

50. ernie wins Davenport D42 precinct 75-62. Bernie will get 3 delegates, Hillary 2, O'Malley nonviable.

progressive phd and 9 others follow
Daniel Foley ?@dfoley75 10m10 minutes ago

Bernie wins Davenport D42 precinct 75-62. Bernie will get 3 delegates, Hillary 2, O'Malley nonviable. @IAStartingLine

[riversedge]

51. 55.32% reporting 51.2% Hillary Clinton % reflects del. strength 48.35% Bernie Sanders

Latest Contests
Iowa CAUCUS (d) | Results
55.32% reporting
51.2%
Hillary Clinton
% reflects del. strength
48.35%
Bernie Sanders
% reflects del. strength
0.45%
Martin O'Malley
% reflects del. strength

[riversedge]

52. slight different web page for Des moines Reg....

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/elections-results-primaries-2016/#/

[72DejaVu]

53. David Wasserman on 538

The Democratic race looks extremely close, with Clinton leading Sanders 51 percent to 48 percent. BUT, it’s going to be very difficult for Sanders to make up that deficit. There simply aren’t a lot of “Bernie blowout” zones. In very liberal, academic Iowa City (Johnson County), Bernie is leading by 15 percentage points, but that’s not as huge a lead as he might have expected there. And his leads elsewhere aren’t nearly as large. Plus, there’s still a good chunk of Clinton-friendly Polk (Des Moines) still out.

[riversedge]

54. good for Hilllary--some Rural counties..

Nik Roybal liked
Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 4m4 minutes ago

Other rural counties w/ high % pcts reporting:
Carroll: Clinton 64% (84% in)
Palo Alto: Clinton 56% (83% in)
Keokuk: Clinton 63% (80% in)

[riversedge]

55. There’s still a good chuck of Hillary-friendly Polk (Des Moines) still out:

FiveThirtyEight ?@FiveThirtyEight 11m11 minutes ago

There’s still a good chuck of Hillary-friendly Polk (Des Moines) still out: http://53eig.ht/1o0xNJV #IACaucus

[Treant]

56. Pretty much a done deal

Mrs. Clinton +2 or so, with the Sanders heavy areas weighted out by the Polk areas still to come in.

Once again Selzer was really, really accurate!

[riversedge]

57. Ames Precinct 2-3 Caucus Results

[riversedge]

58. Clinton camp declaring Victory --msnbc not saying yet

[sheshe2]

61. Please please please. nt

[book_worm]

59. A win is a win and I think Hillary will win this one

but the closeness will only embolden the Bernie folks and I expect he will win New Hampshire. But Hillary should be able to come back strong in Nevada and particularly SC.

[72DejaVu]

60. Bottom line will be:

Bernie couldn't win in one of the best possible states for him.

[Treant]

63. This.

I've downgraded his chances to winning five states--VT, of course, NH, MA, and two random Northeastern or inter-mountain states.

[72DejaVu]

64. I hate to say it

but, if he's still in the race after Super Tuesday, he will win Maine.

[book_worm]

68. What about Minnesota?

[Treant]

70. I still say

that in the end, it comes home to Clinton. Not by much, but some.

[riversedge]

62. Clinton 50.1 percent, Sanders 49.3 percent with 85 percent in:

FiveThirtyEight ?@FiveThirtyEight 2m2 minutes ago

Clinton 50.1 percent, Sanders 49.3 percent with 85 percent in: http://53eig.ht/1QVIAQF #IACaucus

[Hekate]

65. Omg, she should not have announced. It's a tie.

NOW I'm biting my nails.

[sheshe2]

66. actually I am too.

[Treant]

67. Polk still sitting out

20% of Polk county is still to come in. I actually expect that Sanders may take a slight lead before losing it again.

[book_worm]

69. What about the delegates?

[Treant]

71. Close to 22 each.

If it's 21/23 for Sanders or Clinton, that's about the limit, really.

Keep in mind...Clinton walks in with the superdelegates, having done quite well in a Sanders-friendly state.

[book_worm]

72. Hillary can thank Polk County (Des Moines) for probably winning this narrowly...

Still over 20 precients to report in. Bernie can thank Johnson County (Iowa City) for making this as close as it is--he won Johnson by nearly 20 points with 100% reporting in.

[riversedge]

73. This is the one and only time that Bernie needs the 1%.

paris martineau
?@martineauparis

This is the one and only time that Bernie needs the 1%. #IowaCaucus

[riversedge]

74. Whatever else happens, Clinton has a nice 53-48% lead in Polk County. Suburbs really helped out #IAC

Iowa Starting Line ?@IAStartingLine 3m3 minutes ago

Whatever else happens, Clinton has a nice 53-48% lead in Polk County. Suburbs really helped out #IACaucus

[riversedge]

75. Hillary and bill and Chelsia take the stage in IOWA

[riversedge]

76. 92.8% reporting 50.15% Hillary Clinton % reflects del. strength 49.32%.......

Latest Contests
Iowa CAUCUS (d) | Results
92.8% reporting
50.15%
Hillary Clinton
% reflects del. strength
49.32%
Bernie Sanders

[GusBob]

77. Close call

Boy the Hillary hate is ramping up in GDP right now

[riversedge]

78. I agree with this tweet...

Mo Elleithee ?@MoElleithee 13m13 minutes ago

Clinton showing fight w/ this speech. This is what Dems have been wanting. Not disruption for its own sake. Someone who'll fight for them.

[riversedge]

79. 94.11% reporting 49.89% Hillary Clinton % reflects del. strength 49.58% Bernie Sanders

Latest Contests
Iowa CAUCUS (d) | Results
94.11% reporting
49.89%
Hillary Clinton
% reflects del. strength
49.58%
Bernie Sanders

[riversedge]

81. .@HillaryClinton to supporters, "I am a progressive who gets things done" #

CNN ?@CNN 30m30 minutes ago

.@HillaryClinton to supporters, "I am a progressive who gets things done" #IowaCaucus http://cnn.it/1PbYlyz

[Agnosticsherbet]

80. 96 preceincts left...

[Agnosticsherbet]

82. 82 preceincts left, 22 in Polk County...

[jomin41]

83. A tie is a GOOD thing.

This is the best POSSIBLE outcome. We now have much more of a horse race. The coverage of both Bernie and Hillary is going to go way up. Which means that coverage of OUR issues is going to go UP for MONTHS. That's a good thing! This could be a great year for the Democratic party. We've got the best message, by far. We've got a great president in office. Now the media either covers our horse race or courts even more irrelevance. Party On!

[Agnosticsherbet]

84. Adding three debates ( I believe) is an even bigger help.

Republicans gained a lot of press with every debate that we did not .

[CajunBlazer]

85. Caucuses not yet reporting

Studying the on-line Iowa maps, right now there are approximately 42 caucuses not yet reporting.

Of these:

31 are in counties where Clinton is winning so far

11 are in counties where Sanders is winning so far.

You still don't know how particular caucuses are going to vote - even in counties where one or the other of the candidates won big, some caucuses went for other candidate. So you really don't know how the missing caucus will vote.

However, with figures like this, I really like our chances.

Update: Now with 99% of the vote in. Still leading by 02% I think this is over.

Going to bed.

[CajunBlazer]

86. Update: Caucuses not yet reporting

Update: Studying the on-line Iowa maps with 99% of the vote in - right now there are approximately 12 caucuses not yet reporting.

Of these:

10 are in counties where Clinton is winning so far

2 are in counties where Sanders is winning so far.

Looking good: Now I am really going to bed.

[CajunBlazer]

87. Update: Caucuses not yet reporting

Update: Studying the on-line Iowa maps with 99% of the vote in - right now there are approximately 4 caucuses not yet reporting.

Of these:

All are in counties where Clinton is winning so far

None are in counties where Sanders is winning so far.

Looking good: Now I am really going to bed.