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Mon Dec 28, 2015, 09:30 PM

About that Overtime Politics Poll that shows...

Last edited Mon Dec 28, 2015, 10:08 PM - Edit history (1)

HRC and SBS in a dead heat in AR. It was posted in the SBS group so I can't respond ( I got the ) but I thought this might be interesting to HRC supporters so I'm posting it here. Don't ban me! I'm on your side!

Here is the report -
http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-edging-sanders-47-42-in-arkansas/

Here is the methodology disclosure -
http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comDec19-23DemocraticPrimaryPoll-Arkansas.pdf

If you have looked through these disclosures before you will be suprised at how skimpy it is. Another curious asspect of this organization is that they are conducting 2 to 3 polls per week. All of this casts a bit of doubt on the quality of their efforts.

In correspondence with them this response was received:

Hi [Name Redacted],

I have a staff of 3 independent contractors who do everything on the phones. Without the crosstab information, the process goes much faster, it's a simple matter of "Are you planning on voting in either the Dem or Rep primary in (whatever state)", if they say yes, they get asked the nominee question depending on whether they said D or R.

From what I gather from my contractors, they can get around 20-25 responses an hour. Once they hit the D or R limit, depending on how each state voted in the last 2 elections, it goes even faster. When I get the last spreadsheet, it's just a matter of copy/pasting the information into 1 spreadsheet and adding everything up.

Without the extra demographic information, the report can be written up extremely quickly and the results can be published.

I realize this isn't perfect, but it's at least getting some information out there.

Starting in January, I'm going to have a question about personal income on the script as well. To me, if I'm going to add something that is going to increase the time spent both calling people and getting the reports ready, it should be a demo that not everyone provides.

I hope I've answered your questions.

- Fred

4 replies, 2143 views

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Reply About that Overtime Politics Poll that shows... (Original post)
reACTIONary Dec 2015 OP
Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #1
reACTIONary Dec 2015 #2
NastyRiffraff Dec 2015 #3
Tarheel_Dem Dec 2015 #4

Response to reACTIONary (Original post)

Mon Dec 28, 2015, 09:45 PM

1. Damn, got confused, said dead heat in AK and found it wasnt

Alaska but Arkansas.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #1)

Mon Dec 28, 2015, 10:09 PM

2. Fixed. Sorry. Just don't ban me! eom

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Response to reACTIONary (Original post)

Tue Dec 29, 2015, 02:13 PM

3. Thanks!

OvertimePolitics is getting something of a rep, and that is not a good thing for them. Godhumor has posted more about this bunch here

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Response to reACTIONary (Original post)

Tue Dec 29, 2015, 05:22 PM

4. Crap pollster. Nate Silver hasn't even bothered to rate them.

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