Several weeks ago I speculated that Sanders could win Iowa and NH

[question everything]

Iowa caucus goers are two sides of the extreme. And New Hampshire is a neighbor.

However once we move to Nevada and South Carolina, Hillary will win.

What is important is not to let the optics? (I hate this word) discourage anyone.

In 2008 Obama win in Iowa was, indeed a coronation. And then, supposedly, Hillary regained her place by winning New Hampshire.

Thus, no doubt, the media and others here on DU will make a big issue of Sanders winning both states that do not represent the country.

So it will be important to keep the perspective.

[workinclasszero]

1. It's pretty obvious to me

Why Bernie is polling well in NH and Iowa.

Hillary will be way stronger in the rest of the country especially the south and I'm not talking two small, low population states either.

Many large diverse states.

[Kath1]

2. Yes, she will.

No worries now.

[VanillaRhapsody]

4. Absolutely right...she is over the 50 point range in both Florida and Georgia as of Saturday...

with strong leads in both...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

As the princess in Frozen sings..."Let it go...Let it go..."

[VanillaRhapsody]

3. I keep telling them....

I just saw them cheering that Bernie is taking Cornell West to South Carolina!!!

Cracked me right up....take the one guy that regularly insults the First Black President to South Carolina and expect to "Win friends and Influence People"....please proceed Mr. Sanders!

[LuvLoogie]

5. I think for Bernie it's a class war, mainly.

He is definitely riding anti-Hillary coattails and using the Democratic primary process to legitimize his candidacy. He has no interest in being a Democrat, per se.

What he wants is autocratic rule. He is not interested in change via the legislative process. Yet, in session, he is a typical politician in that respect. He voted for the ACA. He stated that single-player was unrealistic given Congress' make up.

He wants a "revolution," but how does he translate that into law? Where is the down-ticket strategy? Does he expect it to occur via osmosis?

[VanillaRhapsody]

6. Apparently they do...

And he wants to ride the anti hillary coat tail so badly that he loses focus and invites an Anti Obama nutter to South Carolina to supposedly try to win some Black voters....I dont think he gets that they are not opposed to HRC and the Anti Obama rhetoric is not going to fly. Its almost a tone deaf move.

Yeah...while they are demanding Hillary demand more debates for them......they don't realize they dont seem too revolutionary if they cannot even make THAT happen! How are they going to change the "Democratic Machine" as they call it......if they cannot even change that.....without demanding someone else do it for them.....they look so very revolutionary! And then they think they can make Congress and Senate change by just yelling "UNFAIR"! Good luck...

[murielm99]

13. What is this "Democratic machine" business

they speak of? Isn't it what Bernie is using? He is using Democratic resources to run for President when he says he is running for the Democratic nomination.

[FloridaBlues]

7. So true. Good post

[Rose Siding]

9. He's been a big fish in a small pond for a very long time

When/if the national media get hold of him, it will be bloody.

Still, maybe a relief from their caricature of The Ambitious Woman.

[yallerdawg]

8. The big picture!

Still looks the same!

Green: Hillary Clinton ahead, 26 states + 1 shared

Blue: Bernie Sanders ahead, 1 state + 1 shared

Gray: No polling data in last six months, 22 states & D.C. (Why bother!)



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

[Amimnoch]

11. Neither of his starts are even swing states.

Especially Ohio. No president has been elected without Ohio's Electoral college votes since Kennedy.

[ellisonz]

10. Polls with Biden in them aren't very useful. n/t

[Gothmog]

12. According to Nate Silver, neither Iowa nor New Hampshire will affect the Democratic race

Go read Nate Silver. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.

There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasn’t won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators haven’t changed over the past month.

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

[katmille]

14. Good article

And Bernie is an Independent and like I've said several times, he won't run as an Independent, not beause he doesn't want to siphon votes away from a Democrat, but BECAUSE he wants to USE the Democrats. He won't admit to being a Democrat (though he caucauses with them in the Senate), but wants the Democratic nomination.
I don't think so!!

[question everything]

15. And a story from the Washington Post confirming

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251601759

[Capn Sunshine]

16. I posted this in GDP regarding the Bernie movement

Look, fair disclosure, I work for the DNC. My task is to advise the Sanders Campaign for the purpose of keeping the young activated and reaching out for Hillary after the primaries are over.

Unless she commits a HUGE GIGANTIC GAFFE larger than Trumps ego, the Sanders flame will burn out after New Hampshire. Here's my post from a while back:

Here are the cold facts:

On Ground Take:
1st or 2nd in New Hampshah
1st or 2nd in Iowa

Then what?

Nevada? you're polling @ 26%

S Carolina: average as of 8/3
Clinton 67.0
Biden 10.5
Sanders 9.0
O'Malley 2.0
Webb 1.5

Spread Clinton +56.5

You'll need a major miracle there

Then Comes

Alabama - last poll
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
78% 34%<------this is an oultlier, most Bernie at 10% but I'm staying positive
Better hit the ground running, tomorrow

Arkansas- Hillary is at 70% in her home state

Colorado -we have bigger problems there structurally; Rubio is leading any Dem. The latest is
Hillary 38 Bernie 37 - so a toss up

Georgia
Hillary 51%
Bernie 24%

Massachusetts
Hillary 43%
Bernie 34% ---- Sanders gaining at last flash poll taken Friday

Minnesota
Hillary 50%
Bernie 34% -- some forward momentum in the last Flash Poll, 9/1

N. Carolina
Hillary 55%
Bernie 20%

Oklahoma
Damned if there's enough Democrats to poll..no data available


That only takes you through March 1. Seeing a trend? If you hope to prevail beyond IA and NH, you have your work cut out for you. A HUGE GIGANTIC ground effort is needed. NOW. ASAP. This isn't happening by magic. And conservatively, you'll need to raise another 12 million to keep the machine going.

I'm not trying to harsh your buzz, just wake you up. If I were you, I'd stop posting about Hillary being a such bad person and start working on a real world real time plan to match the grand pronouncements being made by DU Sanders partisans. You need a proactive, flexible, boom movement that gets the buzz really going with active voters at street level. Block by block, precinct by precinct. Right now it's just not up to snuff.

The Sanders Campaign is checking in tonight so we'll see how much of my advice they took.