From FiveThirtyEight: Senator Sanders, You're No Barack Obama (HILLARY GROUP)

[DeepModem Mom]

Is the 2016 Democratic primary a sequel of 2008?....(W)e have plenty of data to see a number of problems with comparing Sanders’s rise to President Obama’s toppling of Hillary Clinton in 2008.

There are clear differences between the Sanders and Obama campaigns. Most obvious is that Obama won 82 percent of the black vote in the 2008 primary, while Sanders continues to pick up less than 10 percent of black voters’ support. But the two Clinton campaigns have big differences too. The best data we have — polling, endorsements and fundraising — says Clinton is in a much stronger position now than she was at this point in the 2008 cycle.

* Polling

....Clinton is doing better in every single state. On average, she’s doing 21 percentage points better. Nationally, she’s 18 percentage points ahead of her old mark. (This shrinks to 12 percentage points if you just look at August data.)...

Simply put, Clinton has more support from Democratic primary voters this summer than she did in 2007. Moreover, no one in her polling position has lost a primary in the modern era.

* Endorsements

We talk about the endorsement primary a lot at FiveThirtyEight. That’s because no other variable has been as consistently predictive of who becomes the nominee. Obama was trailing Clinton in endorsements in 2007, but he still had plenty of support from governors, House members and senators. Sanders hasn’t yet received a single endorsement from anyone in those groups.

....Clinton has more than twice the support within the party as she did at this point in the 2008 cycle.

* Fundraising

....Through June of this year, Clinton had raised 73 percent of all money donated to Democratic presidential candidates. Sanders had raised 23 percent. Clinton also has plenty of PAC and super PAC money behind her, and Sanders has chosen not to rely on super PAC support....

***

By pretty much every metric, Clinton is in a stronger position than she was at this point eight years ago. That doesn’t mean she is guaranteed to win, but the 2016 Democratic presidential primary is not the 2008 primary.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-youre-no-barack-obama/ via FiveThirtyEight

[shenmue]

1. Yeah!

[postatomic]

2. Sanders has chosen not to rely on super PAC support....

But he's already had couple Super PACs being formed. The Sanders campaign response; "it's a free country, they can do what they want".

Sanders denies knowledge of these Super PACs. Yea, right.

[postatomic]

3. The importance of this is being lost on some people

Amazon must have sold all their Rose Colored Glasses.

[SunSeeker]

4. "...no one in her polling position has lost a primary in the modern era."

[Jamaal510]

5. What O also had

working in his favor was that he hailed from a unique background and caught the media's attention through many ways. He ran to be the country's first president of color and was raised in a multi-racial family, he was born in Hawaii, and he had experience as a community organizer and as a professor in addition to serving as an Illinois senator. To top it all off, his campaign was Internet-savvy, and his messages were powerful, yet positive and hopeful in a time where the country was in a couple of wars and shedding jobs. He was a once-in-a-lifetime candidate who was able to captivate the hearts of millions of people worldwide.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. Indeed. Hope and Change!!! n/t

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. ^^^^^ TRUTH ^^^^^ n/t

[Cha]

11. Mahalo for that analysis, Jamaal! Pres Obama's story is so unique.. and he came through with

Hope and Change.. so much.

those who don't know this are on the wrong side of history.

[ellisonz]

14. ^^^^

This

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. Thanks. I just used this article in rebuttal to some strongly held misconceptions.

[DeepModem Mom]

9. Delighted!

[leftofcool]

10. She is a winner!

Nate is correct on all points.

[Gothmog]

12. I love Nate Silver

Nate is correct in that Bernie is not close to being a threat to Hillary Clinton

[Thinkingabout]

13. I'll stand behind the endorsement list before the big crowd numbers, these are people who have

worked with Hillary and Bernie, it is a vote of confidence for Hillary.

[ericson00]

15. the comparison of Sanders to Obama is dumber than Dan Quayle

n/t