California Field Poll: 45-43 HRC over Sanders

[WI_DEM]

Hillary Clinton’s lead has withered to the narrowest of margins over Sen. Bernie Sanders in what is shaping up to be a ballot-box barn burner in Tuesday’s California Democratic primary, a new Field Poll showed Thursday

Clinton has leads of 49 to 40 percent among both women and registered Democrats, while men back Sanders by 48 to 39 percent. Decline-to-state voters, who can vote in the Democratic primary, back Sanders by 54 to 27 percent, according to the poll.

“Clinton does lead among the registered Democrats, but Sanders is getting very close because of the strong support of the independents,” DiCamillo said.

The poll also showed that even as the candidates travel around the state, many people have already cast a ballot. Twenty-three percent of those surveyed had already voted early or by mail. Among those voters, Clinton leads Sanders by nine points, DiCamillo said.

Among those who had not yet voted, 45 percent back Sanders and 44 percent are behind Clinton.

http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Field-Poll-finds-Clinton-s-California-lead-down-7958398.php

[WI_DEM]

3. Good, you should do a seperate thread about it so it gets

the exposure it deserves.

[still_one]

7. Field is a good pollster. I believe California will results will be within a 10 point spread

No one is going to win by 30% more votes than the other candidate

[WI_DEM]

2. Here are some demographics from the Field Poll

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf

LA County--51-41 HRC
Other Southern California--43-47 Bernie
San Francisco Bay Area--41-49 Bernie
Central Valley/Sierras--47-33 HRC

Latinos 46-42 HRC
African-Americans--57-36 HRC
Asians--34-47 Bernie
White--44-43 HRC

[Jitter65]

5. The 8 point lead by BS in SFBay Area is surprising to me.

If these numbers are good...HRC should win this by 6 points. What am I missing?

[TwilightZone]

8. "Asians--34-47 Bernie" - similar to the PPI poll

Asians are roughly 13% of the population in CA, so that's partly why it's so close.

[BootinUp]

9. I'M surprised.

Wonder what their thinking is.

[still_one]

6. Field is a good pollster. What this indicates to me is that it will be close, and that

no one will have a blow-out win in California.

No surprise that those who have been registered Democrats since the last election are going with Hillary.

This is the final push weekend for call banking and canvassing

This poll pretty much confirms no blow-out that the sanders campaign has been spewing for a month

[TwilightZone]

10. Hopefully, it doesn't indicate a shift that's still ongoing.

Not that it matters much. I'd just like to see Hillary win CA to help put a damper on the contested convention nonsense.

[still_one]

11. I don't think so. Also, at least 20% will vote by mail, and Hillary is leading in

that group.

[still_one]

16. I know, but other factors are at play. Actually the last 4 polls confirm the Field poll

3 polls including the Field poll give Hillary a 2 point lead, and one gives her an 18 point lead. That implies the 18 point lead is probably an outlier:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

Hillary has a good chance to pull this off, but I just don't see that it will be a blow-out, and essentially a push

[still_one]

21. The link I provided listed the last four recent polls

NBC/WSJ/Marist +2
Field +2
KABC/SurveySA +18
PPIC +2

[DLCWIdem]

25. do you know the dates of the Survey/kABC poll. if it was earlier maybe the early voting

Skewered it.

[LonePirate]

26. Field's last CA poll in 2008 had Clinton up by 2. She won by almost 10.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html#polls

[TwilightZone]

12. The polls are all over the place.

I have no idea what to think. Field's a good org though, so it's probably as close as they're indicating.

Further indication that we should have closed primaries. The "decline-to-state" voters are a primary reason why it's even close.

[still_one]

15. Nate Silver has the odds of Hillary pulling off a victory 94% to 6%

That is a reflection of a win or lose, not the final voting

No blowout will happen in California, and more and more people, especially those who work have been moving toward voting by mail.

Also, this year vote by mail is postage paid

[caquillo]

13. For what it's worth

In 2008, the RCP Average had Obama leading by +1.2 heading into Super Tuesday (when CA voted then), but Hillary ended up winning the state by 8 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html

[still_one]

17. and I think the final results will be within a 10 point spread.

[William769]

18. I do not believe these polls.

Hillary Clinton will win with a comfortable margin.

[still_one]

24. Registered Democrats will vote for Hillary, no question about it, and there are a lot of us out here

It is the newly registered that are the wild card.

What the polls indicate is that Hillary has a slight advantage. They also indicate that if Sanders wins, it won't be a landslide victory, which means he loses.

In reality we already know that regardless of what happens in California, the race is over, Hillary is the nominee.

A win in California would be icing on the cake

I can tell you Hillary volunteers are working their butts off doing canvassing and phone banking, and there are a lot of folks who are pumped up about voting for Hillary. I hear a lot of enthusiasm when I am making phone calls for Hillary

[still_one]

19. and that early voting favors Hillary, and that 23% of early voters are a strong indicator why

California will not be a blowout

[BobbyDrake]

22. I read somewhere the "first time voters" block was only making up 15% of CA's electorate.

In other words, the youth vote is blowing it again for Bernie Sanders.

[texstad79]

27. Bad demographic model

They have oversampled whites, who are 46% of the CA population, but 56% of this sample.