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Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumKrugman's making sense again
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/30/opinion/feel-the-math.html?_r=1
Now, Im not a political scientist or polling expert, nor do I even try to play one on TV. But I am fairly numerate, and I assiduously follow real experts like The Timess Nate Cohn. And theyve taught me some basic rules that I keep seeing violated.
First, at a certain point you have to stop reporting about the race for a partys nomination as if its mainly about narrative and momentum. That may be true at an early stage, when candidates are competing for credibility and dollars. Eventually, however, it all becomes a simple, concrete matter of delegate counts.
Thats why Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee; she locked it up over a month ago with her big Mid-Atlantic wins, leaving Bernie Sanders no way to overtake her without gigantic, implausible landslides winning two-thirds of the vote! in states with large nonwhite populations, which have supported Mrs. Clinton by huge margins throughout the campaign.
And no, saying that the race is effectively over isnt somehow aiding a nefarious plot to shut it down by prematurely declaring victory. Nate Silver recently summed it up: Clinton strategy is to persuade more people to vote for her, hence producing majority of delegates. You may think those people chose the wrong candidate, but choose her they did.
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Krugman's making sense again (Original Post)
charlyvi
May 2016
OP
He's being pragmatic, and pragmatism has no place in the realm where the fringies think they live.
BlueCaliDem
May 2016
#3
And he outed himself as a hack with "...I am fairly numerate..." obviously. Math!
fleabiscuit
May 2016
#4
Gothmog
(145,344 posts)1. Prof. Krugman is correct in his analysis
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)2. He usually is.
But too many people ignore him because they don't want to hear it.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)3. He's being pragmatic, and pragmatism has no place in the realm where the fringies think they live.
Hence the GOP nomination of the Lyin'-Don and BS' "popularity".
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)4. And he outed himself as a hack with "...I am fairly numerate..." obviously. Math!
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)5. KNR Thank you!