Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumThat new CA poll from PPIC might be an outlier.
Project 538 has a polling average of 55/38, with Hillary trending upward, updated yesterday.
They're forecasting a rather optimistic (in my opinion) 62/36.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/
PPIC shows it at 46/44 Clinton. However:
"The poll was conducted over a relatively long period of time May 13-22 and surveyed 552 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-clinton-and-sanders-in-dead-heat-in-california-223580
It looks like an outlier, though it's hard to tell. It was also taken over 10 days, which is somewhat unusual.
Edit: the math also looks a little shaky: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1107145478#post7
SurveyUSA has it 57/38, taken 5/19-5/22, the later part of the same time frame.
http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/
Arkansas Granny
(31,525 posts)TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)538 doesn't have this one listed yet. It'll be interesting to see if their forecast changes later today.
Just a little nervous that there isn't much data and what's available is all over the place.
It shouldn't matter after NJ, but a clear CA win by Hillary would help shut down some of the nonsense.
ismnotwasm
(41,999 posts)I love to see a California win by a comfortable margin, but even a close loss isn't going to change a thing.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)The poll has Hillary up 6 with whites, 9 with Hispanics, and presumably even more with African Americans. There is no way anyone who isn't inept at math can look at those numbers and say the total margin is far less than with any of those groups, since they combine to make up the vast majority of Californians.
Either that poll's data or conclusions are pure garbage.
TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)Whites: 47/41 Hillary
Latinos: 52/43 Hillary
"Other" would have to be heavily Sanders to get to 46/44 overall, probably at least 60/40.
Unless I'm missing something, I can't find where "Other" is listed or broken down. Presumably, it's mostly African Americans and Asian Americans, plus a few percentage points for various others considering the demographics in CA. African Americans are presumably going to be heavily Hillary, so Asian Americans and the others would have to be something like 80/20 Sanders for the math to work.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)wryter2000
(46,077 posts)Putting African Americans in "other"? That is seriously effed up.
TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)Last edited Thu May 26, 2016, 11:00 AM - Edit history (1)
I think it's mostly for space purposes on the survey report, though they usually have them broken down somewhere. As of 2014, whites and Latinos were a little under 80% of the population. Asians were around 13%; AA were 6% or so.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/01/24/in-2014-latinos-will-surpass-whites-as-largest-racialethnic-group-in-california/
taught_me_patience
(5,477 posts)Hillary is in the wheelhouse for Asians. Asians love Obama and like Hillary.
TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)Favorables:
Clinton: 62%
Sanders: 48%
Granted, that's more than just CA, but considering how Sanders did in HI, CA must be pro-Clinton.
This (the PPIC) is one screwy poll.
TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)win, lose...she has the delegate and popular vote leads that can't be overcome
wryter2000
(46,077 posts)If Sanders were to win CA, his bots would never shut up. I'd rather see wins, huge if possible, in both NJ and CA to crush their delusions. Sanders needs to come out strongly for Hillary before the convention.
TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)A comfortable win in CA would help shut down the nonsense and make it easier for Sanders to pack it in.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)zealots don't go away quietly I am afraid
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)which is the respected poll (like that of the Selzer organization for the Des Moines Register in Iowa) of the state.
TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)They also oversampled women a bit, 56/44.
Hopefully, they'll do another one before the primary. Today would be nice. haha
Link, just because: http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2531.pdf
BootinUp
(47,179 posts)TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)lol
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Let's take a couple:
College Grad vs less than College:
Sanders is +8% amongst the less educated segment (243) while Clinton is +19% amongst the more educated segment (303)
.08*243=19
.19*303=57
57-19=38
38/549 (total respondents per survey)=7%
Or, let's take home owners vs renters:
Sanders leads amongst renters by 20% (174 respondents) while Clinton leads amongst homeowners (359) by 17%
.2*174=35
.17*359=61
61-35=26 (which doesn't tie out to the education breakdown)
Still, 26/549=5%
TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)Household income looks like it's pretty much right on. College/non-college, right next to it, is 5 points off. Odd.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Basically split for 55+, with Trump winning white voters?
Trump winning men by 10%?
no.
TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)Can't tell which are right and which are wrong or which ones were used in calculating the 46/44, so looks like we'll just wait for a better one to be released. Field should be along before too long.