What To Expect In The Democratic Primaries In Kentucky And Oregon

[BlueMTexpat]

From 538's Harry Enten. I'm hoping that results for Hillary will be better than this, but a dose of reality won't hurt. The consensus is that whatever happens tonight will still not change the dynamics of this primary and Hillary will ultimately be the Dem nominee.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-expect-in-the-democratic-primaries-in-kentucky-and-oregon/

Today’s Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon are the last meaningful ones of the month.1 Hillary Clinton is a slight favorite in Kentucky (with 55 delegates at stake), and Bernie Sanders has a good shot at taking Oregon (with 61 delegates at stake). Overall, Sanders probably won’t make much of a dent in Clinton’s lead of 280 elected delegates, because all Democratic primaries allocate their delegates proportionally. Unless Sanders wins by a very large margin, which is unlikely, he won’t pick up many more delegates than Clinton will.

Kentucky doesn’t line up particularly well for either candidate demographically. My colleague Nate Silver’s demographic model, released in late April, projects that Clinton will win the state by about 2 percentage points. Why? In the last general election with an exit poll in every state (2008), whites made up about 75 percent of Barack Obama voters in Kentucky. That’s good — but not great — news for Sanders, who has done better with white voters than nonwhite voters. Blacks, meanwhile, made up about 25 percent. What could turn the tide for Clinton is that Kentucky is a closed primary, which means only registered Democrats can vote. Sanders has done better among unaffiliated voters in open primaries. There’s been limited polling in Kentucky, but the last poll released there (in early March) had Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points.

Oregon is different. Nate’s demographic model gives Sanders an edge of about 15 percentage points. That’s because whites made up about 90 percent of Obama voters in the 2008 general election. Keep in mind too that Sanders won next door in the Washington caucuses in March by about 45 percentage points. Clinton is expected to do better in Oregon because, unlike Washington, Oregon is a primary and is closed to non-Democrats. I should note that the only two polls taken this year, including one taken this month, have shown Clinton ahead, so it’s possible that she’ll pull it out.

[Her Sister]

1. ... this translates into Sanders cutting his elected delegate deficit by about eight! ~300 minus 8 =

Of course, the only thing that matters is delegates. If Clinton wins Kentucky by 2 percentage points and Sanders wins Oregon by 15 percentage points, this translates into Sanders cutting his elected delegate deficit by about eight. That would leave Clinton with a lead of 272 elected delegates with very few primaries left.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-expect-in-the-democratic-primaries-in-kentucky-and-oregon/

[BlueMTexpat]

6. Hillary has met her 538 delegate targets

for BOTH states and could possibly exceed them.

Right now, per some counts, her total delegates (pledged and unpledged) = 2,291 and we're still waiting for the vote-counting to finish in OR! That's only 92 delegates short of the nomination - at a maximum.

YEESSSSS!!!

[texstad79]

2. Who wins

these states is really not relevant as long its not a landslide. The key point is that after this round there will be fewer states left to make up ground. Hillary is running out the clock at this point.

[wisteria]

3. Would be nice to see a win for Clinton.

It would be stop the momentum bs from the Sander's people.

[kstewart33]

4. If she wins Kentucky, she'll be fine. nt

[BlueMTexpat]

5. The networks have called Kentucky

for Clinton (VERY close result) and Oregon for Sanders.

Now we're just waiting to see the size of the margin in OR. Right now, it's only seven percentage points. If that holds, Bernie essentially loses. As of now, Hillary has met her 538 delegate targets (27 in KY and 24 in OR) and she could possibly exceed them. Fingers crossed!

Our girl is doing just GREAT!