New Poll Out of Oregon; Hillary up 15, 48-33 ..Hoping both dreams comes true for us..yikes
Last edited Mon May 16, 2016, 07:12 AM - Edit history (7)
A bombshell to close out your weekend in style: Hillary up fifteen in Oregon.
★★★
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/15/1526708/-New-Poll-Out-of-Oregon-Hillary-up-15-48-33
The Oregon primary is on Tuesday, May 17th.
If the numbers from a newly released poll of the OR Democratic primary are accurate and hold steady for a week, it’s over. Team Sanders is banking on a twenty-plus percent win in Oregon (which wouldn’t narrow her lead, but would have value for the sake of appearances) – a defeat of this magnitude on friendly ground could sound his bell’s last tolling.
The poll (by Portland’s DHM Research) calculates the outcomes of two scenarios, one based on higher Democratic turnout, the other on average turnout. n=304, MoE 5.6%.
Both scenarios show a statistically significant lead for Hillary Clinton outside the poll’s MoE.
In the high turnout model [.pdf], she leads by 7%, 45% to 38%, in the average turnout model [.pdf] by 15%, 48% to 33%.
After Oregon, 930 pledged delegates remain on the table.
★★★
Hillary Clinton may have a big surprise coming up this week with polls from Oregon showing her ahead in a state many thought would be a cake walk for Bernie Sanders.
Desperately needing momentum in his bid to pull off an upset in the Democratic primary, Sanders has been looking to Oregon as a chance to take a big chunk out of Clinton’s delegate lead. It is a progressive state with demographics favorable to Sanders, and he has drawn some huge crowds during his campaigning there. [...]
Supporters of Bernie Sanders believed the same way with many rallying to reach voters through phone banking in an effort to give Sanders a big win, hoping to be by 20 points or more.
But, the polls don’t reflect that. [Portland-based pollster] Horvick’s firm, DHM Research, showed that Hillary Clinton is actually leading Bernie Sanders and by a margin of 15 points. The poll had Clinton ahead 48 percent to 33 percent.
The Los Angeles Times has more:
Like everyone else in Oregon, pollster John Horvick has watched as Bernie Sanders draws massive crowds by capitalizing on liberal dissatisfaction in this left-leaning state.
“It felt like this is Bernie Sanders country,” he said.
That’s why the latest poll results from his firm, DHM Research, were something of a surprise. Hillary Clinton led 48% to 33% , a gap much larger than the margin of error of 5.6 percentage points. [...]
Now, some reasons to believe Clinton could pull off a victory here.
Oregon has a closed primary, meaning only registered Democrats can vote, and Sanders hasn't won a closed primary yet in this campaign. Older voters are much more likely than their younger counterparts to be registered with a party, and they’re more likely to favor Clinton, giving her an edge.
In addition, Horvick’s team calculated a second set of numbers based on a potential turnout where young voters and new voters cast ballots in higher numbers than normal .
Even then, Clinton had a lead that exceeded the margin of error, 45% to 38%.
I was unable to find any polling whatsoever of Oregon’s primary, and assumed (along with everyone else) – the demographics being favorable to Sanders – that he would carry the state. Not by enough to gain a lead or even whittle away substantially at his delegate and vote deficit by all that much, but a win is a win.
If an expected win however becomes an unexpected double-digit loss, it becomes difficult to imagine what believable rationale the Sanders campaign might concoct to keep its donor spigots open and troops motivated.
With seventy four delegates, Oregon represents the third-largest electoral reservoir remaining, after California (546) and New Jersey (142).
★★★
So what comes next? Assuming Sanders loses Oregon by these margins, he would have to win all remaining primaries by ~ 70% to 30%, a vote share he has not reached outside of his home state of Vermont and that is not evident in the polling we have of the contests to come. All things are possible under heaven, this precise eventuality however strikes me at least as somewhat unlikely to occur.
This is done yesterday ...I hope its a win for her...
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Keep Your Fingers Cross........
And Let It Be........Hillary
And dreams come true Paul is coming to our hometown after 52 yrs and we are going,we might have chance to present my art to him as we did Ringo yrs ago same arena the arena is working on it not sure yet but it would be our dream for me and hubby.... Just one day before our wedding anniversary.....he will be here . yikes for us Beatles fans its a dream come true as Hillary winning......
So hope for Hillary to win....dreams can come true.....
= new reply since forum marked as read
They'll become even more unhinged.
But I am not afraid to hope that they are true.
I just hope for the best outcome for Hillary and glad we don't have to worry about her not getting the nom.
It would be Wonderful if Hillary won Oregon but as far as these polls are concerned.. ? We shall see real soon, won't we?
BlueMT~
Cha!!
Congratulations to you! 
Thank-you its not much some do alot of post in a day ,but I have art projects to work on,so I try to jump in and post as I can....
But i think if they know who the nominee is going to be by now,,,,,,they might just start thinking,to vote for her...I surely hope so we are sitting on
