Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumQuestion about CA
Where is the polling data showing that Sanders is going to sweep California big time? 538 lists 14 polls taken from January through April and he is not leading in any of them. Closing in, yes, he may even win it, but the polls don't indicate anything like the landslide Sanders will need to make a dent in Hillary's pledged delegate lead. Dem primaries award delegates proportionately, not winner take all. So where are these magic campaign saving numbers that will catapult Sanders into the White House?
RandySF
(58,900 posts)If he can't make it there, he can't make it anywhere.
shenmue
(38,506 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)No math support anything but a Hillary nomination... Sanders can stay to convention really not an issue but he has start being gracious...and start convincing his supporters too....we have bigger battle brewing for November...
pandr32
(11,588 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)...has her ahead by 9%, with a 78% chance of winning.
Sanders needs to win ALL of the remaining 10 states by an average of 30% (i.e., 65-35) to get the nomination.
No amount of appearances by Jeff Weaver and Tad Devine will change that.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)Not only win, but do so in a landslide. There's no evidence at all that I can find that indicates anything close to one.
Treant
(1,968 posts)I've been assured that, since everybody they know is voting for Bernie, therefore there will be no Clinton votes in California.
Yeah, well, they said the same about Pennsylvania (due to State College). She won here handily.
Indiana looks like a minor Clinton win (although it could still swing the other way), and that closes the door a bit more on a Sanders nomination. He should do well in Oregon...but +30? It seems unlikely.
California, of course, leans Clinton right now. New Jersey should mirror NY and PA and be around Clinton +10. And those are the three remaining large contests and one medium large.
No path remains that even the most agile mountain goat could navigate.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)0 + 0 = victory
Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)not sure how well he'll do
We have a huge immigrant, multi-cultural population.
With more than half of the state by 'area' being conservative.
Hillary did well here before.
We are very much a 'decline to state' environment (thats the independents).
But the decline to states tend to vote like their partisan neighbors
Its fairly easy to register to vote.
In my area we are using paper ballots although those ballots are read by machine.
Based on where my voting station is....we're in the middle volume of polling sites.
That is I'm regularly voting at three different locations.
This primary they are sending me to the middling volume site...(neither the low turnout nor the high turnout site)
Democratic primary is an open primary: GOP primary is closed.
Most of the big cities are very liberal...but san diego and orange county can be pretty conservative.
I guess San Diego because of the major influence of the military.
The big college towns will be very liberal but some of them are in conservative counties (inland empire)
LenaBaby61
(6,974 posts)And although Bernie Sanders has REALLY cut Hillary Clinton's lead down quite a bit here in California, the polling I've seen as of late consistently has Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders anywhere from 6.7 % points (As of 4/7-4/21 2016 Real Clear Politics averages of recent polling). The Democratic primaries are about 1 month and a bit away, so we'll have to wait and see how much enthusiasm Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders supporters has when June rolls around, especially given the fact that Bernie Sanders as per the AP, has no chance to win the race with pledged delegates, even if Hillary Clinton were to lose every remaining state left in the primary race.
I was talking with a friend whose a die-hard Bernie Sanders supporter from New York late last night, and she says that Bernie needs to leave the race and start coalescing behind Hillary Clinton (She is voting for Hillary in the general--always intended to if Bernie Sanders didn't win the Democratic nomination for President). But I told her that I feel that Bernie Sanders shouldn't leave the race, because he's earned the right for himself and for those supporting him to go all the way to the end of the primary process.
I'm sitting here now laughing to myself thinking that late last night, I told a Bernie Supporter that the candidate she's endorsing and supports should not leave the race until HE wants to leave or until the end of the primary process
still_one
(92,219 posts)won't give him enough delegates.
To a different point to those who say Hillary would lose against Trump in the general election, I believe they are in a bubble.
My brother is a staunch republican, and politically we are complete opposites. We usually try to avoid discussing politics, but when he related to me that if Trump or Cruz are the republican nominees, he will vote for Hillary in that case, I almost fell off my chair.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)And he's a staunch Fox channel viewer. I felt like taking him to the ER.
still_one
(92,219 posts)stopbush
(24,396 posts)because I don't see much Sanders signage and nobody I've talked to takes him seriously.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)themselves "Nixon Republicans". They HATE Trump and Cruz. If Trump or Cruz gets the nom, they will vote for Hillary Clinton. I was blown away. I thought they'd surely support a Cruz candidacy at the very least. But nope.
Consequently, they dislike Sanders with a passion - it's that "socialist" thing they dislike the most and his "free stuff" platform they believe he's running on.
still_one
(92,219 posts)but there is no data indicating that Sanders is going to win big time. It will probably be close though, but it isn't going to be a blowout, and even if it was, it still won't garner him the nomination.
The Sanders' campaign was pushing that theme with regard to New York, and that didn't work out too well for them either.
While Sanders most likely well within his demographic group, what they are missing is there are a hell of a lot of Hillary supporters in California that they seem to ignore.
Anecdotally I was at a dinner last Saturday where there were about 15 guests, where there was a good distribution of all voting age groups, including millennials. Everyone of them were voting for Hillary in the primaries.
That is the problem with some people who support Sanders. They only pay attention to the media hype and support Sanders has, and ignore the diversified support that Hillary has.
That is probably Hillary's greatest strength. Her supporters are a much more diversified segment than those that support Sanders.
A President needs to act like a President, and be responsible. When Sanders starts making blanket attacks against ALL corporations as being corrupt and "evil", he is not providing solutions to the problems affecting the country. This editorial I believe encapsulates why Sanders is not equipped to be President:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ge-ceo-bernie-sanders-says-were-destroying-the-moral-fabric-of-america-hes-wrong/2016/04/06/8499bc8c-fc23-11e5-80e4-c381214de1a3_story.html
Pathwalker
(6,598 posts)n/t
savalez
(3,517 posts)BS email soliciting donations. So it must be true.
(do I even need the sarcasm thingy?)
displacedtexan
(15,696 posts)He's winning all of the facebook polls in groups they belong to.
Oops, I forgot to add: the vast majority of corporations and businesses in CA are owned and run by Dems who have strong ties to the party, not just to some random candidate with no coattails.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)That's different then!
displacedtexan
(15,696 posts)and claim it was just a database glitch.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... some online poll.
skylucy
(3,739 posts)I think Hillary will win California. I am little annoyed at the pundits who keep saying that Hillary could lose all the next states even California and still get the nomination. People should not get the idea that they can vote Bernie to "send a message" and feel comfortable "knowing" that Hillary will still win the nomination. Dems who want Hillary to be the nominee, need to vote for her. As I intend to do! Hillary 2016! P.S. Just watched Trump's totally bogus foreign policy speech. He's definitely pivoted to the general election and Dems need to do the same. Unbelievable that Republicans are trying to make it sound like President Obama was the one who got us into the Iraq War. Wow.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)They also try to blame the financial meltdown on him, even though it happened on Bush's watch. Pitiful.