Explaining the "dip" in Obama approval rating: They polled more Republicans!

[UrbScotty]

http://www.thepeoplesview.net/2012/03/explaining-dip-obama-approval-rating.html

If you watch any of the morning news shows on TV, or read the news first thing with your morning coffee, you know today's poll narrative in the media: In the midst of rising gas prices, Obama's approval ratings dip. That is the headline from the ABC News/Washington Post poll released today, showing President Obama's approval rating at 46% and disapproval at 50%, a reversal of fortunes from early February. Hell, it even shows Romney beating Obama by a point. The explanation offered by pundits and headlines? Gas prices, which 66% of Americans are very concerned about, the poll finds.

But what's behind the headlines? What's beyond the pundits and the pontifications? Why did President Obama's approval numbers really go down? Or did it even actually go down? What really accounts for the reversal from last month? The real answer: they polled more Republicans this time than last. Ta-da! I decided to compare the party ID numbers attached to this poll vs. the ones attached to the last poll. Look what I found:

...

From the last poll to this one, there is a net 7 point gain for GOP identified voters as opposed to Democratic ones, and there is a net 8 point loss in the President's approval rating. Hmm, looks like an awfully close correlation to me. If we assume that independents lean roughly the same way as the party ID numbers (really, very few voters are truly independent), GOP and GOP lean voters get a representation bump another 3 percentage points net, moving the GOP party ID vs. Democrats to a net +10 points as compared to the last poll. Given that about 80% of GOP and GOP-leaning voters oppose President Obama, the entire 8 point swing in the poll can be accounted for by the additional representation of Republican and Republican leaning voters.

But what are the real numbers on voter registration in this country? From the most current data from states that allow registration by party, Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 12 point margin, 43% to 31%, with independents coming in at 24%. Granted, only 29 states and DC allow registration by party, so take that data with that caveat, but I will note that the February poll had a much closer party ID difference (D +11) to the known actual national data (D +12). In this poll, that has dwindled down to a D +4, which is obviously a significant over-representation Republican and GOP-leaning voters, and an equally significant under-representation of Democratic voter registration advantage.

[grantcart]

1. I wish everybody would chill about the polls

Right now the only polls that have any meaning are

1) National day by day polls like Gallup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

and

2) Indepth polls that go into negative perceptions like this one by PPP in Maine which shows him up by 23 points

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-standing-much-improved-in-maine.html


or this one in Pennsylvania which shows him up by 10

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-doing-better-in-pennsylvania.html



In political science 'approval polls' are rarely used as a meaningful index. This is because 'approval' is very ambiguous and superficial when compared with 'disapproval' that reflects a much stronger expressed opinion. An approval can turn into a 'disapproval' fairly easily but a disapproval is hard to turn into an 'approval'.

If Romney gets the nomination he will enter the GE with the lowest negatives and the biggest negative/approval gap in modern history, worse than Dole.


http://www.11alive.com/news/article/231330/40/NBCWSJ-Poll-Primary-season-takes-corrosive-toll-on-GOP

In fact, Romney's image right now is worse than almost all other recent candidates who went on to win their party's presidential nomination: Obama was 51/28 percent and John McCain was 47/27, per the March 2008 NBC/WSJ poll; John Kerry was at 42/30 at this point in 2004; George W. Bush was 43/32 in 2000; and Bob Dole was 35/39 in March 1996.

[nofurylike]

3. thank you for adding that, grantcart.

am i reading this wrong? :

"If Romney gets the nomination he will enter the GE with the lowest negatives and the biggest negative/approval gap in modern history, worse than Dole."

i must be. still your point is clear, and helpful, thanks again.

[nofurylike]

2. thank you for posting that, UrbScotty.

but then, maybe it will nudge a couple of the lazy people to actually bother to vote.

wishful, ah?