Will Blairites cross floor to the Tories?

[T_i_B]

They could defect to the Lib Dems as well, or they could oust Corbyn in an internal coup. Myself, I just wish they would accept the result of the leadership contest and look at how they can make themselves more apeallinjg to the electorate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34267886

So here is the chatter: that one or a number of the New Labour Blairite ultras could cross the floor to the Tories, because of their personal relationship with Osborne - to whom they feel closer, in a political and social sense, than they do to Labour's new leader, Jeremy Corbyn

Osborne mixes in the same modish London metropolitan elite circles as them. He takes their calls, responds to their emails, and is fully abreast of their current agony. And they admire him. More than once I've been told, by a couple of their gang, that Osborne is the most impressive politician of the moment. Naturally it would be quite a coup for the Tories if the ascent of Corbyn led to Labour defections to their ranks.

To be clear, the Blairites are already closer to Osborne than Corbyn on a whole range of issues they regard as basic - from membership of Nato, preserving the independence of the Bank of England, nationalisation, and the propriety of singing the national anthem on state occasions.

So will one or a number of Blairites find themselves on the Tory side of the house?

[djean111]

1. I read something yesterday, need to find it again, wherein a pundit was bemoaning the fact that

Corbyn was elected. said, yeah, austerity sucks for some people, but electing someone like Corbyn was an overreaction and people should want and expect and elect slower change, because too much progressive stuff all at once was Not Good. Ridiculous twaddle. What is really wanted at the top is for people to elect politicians who LIE about being progressive. I think "pragmatic" now means "will work for the banks while mouthing lies about being progressive".

[TubbersUK]

2. It would be surprising if a few didn't defect

I was amused the other day to see a couple of them resigning from shadow cabinet posts they hadn't even been offered - such egos.

[LeftishBrit]

3. Bloody hope not

I wouldn't be surprised if some went independent, LibDem or gave up politics for something more lucrative under present circumstances - perhaps crossing the pond rather than the floor for the purpose. But anyone who feels politically close to George Osborne - well, I have to control myself to avoid using Blairite rhetoric, such as that they might need a heart or brain transplant. Which they couldn't get from Osborne, as he has neither!

[Ken Burch]

10. My main regret about Osborne...

...is that Dickens isn't here to write a novel based on him...

[non sociopath skin]

4. One wonders if they've shared their angst and their "Dear George" calls and emails ...

... with their Constituency Parties or the people who elected them.

I suspect not.

The Skin

[T_i_B]

5. My guess is that "sharing their angst" with their local party...

....will have only driven people further into Corbyn's arms. Just look at the likes of Simon Danczuk and John Mann as examples of anti-Corbyn Labour MP's who did their cause more harm than good.

[non sociopath skin]

7. I'd like to be a fly on the wall if they did.

"Sorry, folks but I can't be doing with a man who voices ordinary people's concerns at PMQ and doesn't sing the National Anthem. I think I owe it to you to add this constituency to Cameron's majority".

The Skin

[T_i_B]

8. This brings us to another point

How many of these MP's will have safe Labour seats where anti-Tory sentiment is very strong? Can't imagine that joining with the Tories will play well with the electorate for many of these people.

[MisterP]

6. can the Tories afford to swing that far right?

[Ken Burch]

9. Not sure the Tories would take them.

I think Cameron and Osborne realize that taking in Blairite defectors would do more to unify Labour supporters, even those on the Labour right, in determination to get them out in 2020 than than any other possible step.

Any such defectors would bring almost no actual former Labour voters with them, for that matter. The Blairite argument had been that they, and ONLY they, could beat the Tories and keep them out of power. Actually aligning with the same people the Blairites were supposedly determined to defeat only a few short years earlier would destroy any remaining personal credibility those people might have.

Not sure attempting to recreate the 1980's "Alliance" would work for the Blairites either. All Corbyn or any other possible Labour would have to do to defeat would be to remind the electorate that all the Liberal/SDP achieved in 1983 and 1987 was to give the Tories a better-than-100 seat majority. Pretty sure the voters have learned from that.

[T_i_B]

11. Don't be surprised if moderate Labour voters are regarded as being up for grabs.

If the Tories and Lib Dems think they can gain from moderates deserting the Labour party then they will try and get those voters on board. And to be brutally honest I can see a few moderate voters heading elsewhere if Corbyn is still Labour leader in 2020.

The only problem is that the decline of the moderate left in recent times has been due in part to how poor the politicians purporting to represent the moderate left have been.

And on another note, here's Tim Farron on the subject of possible defections.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/sep/17/lib-dem-leader-playing-agony-aunt-to-distressed-labour-mps?CMP=share_btn_fb

[Ken Burch]

12. I suspect that a lot of those voters who self-identify as "moderate left"

Are actually a lot more radical in their views than the politicians who identify as "moderate left&quot or "center-left", as the Blairites prefer-by which they mean "we represent the only allowable degree of divergence with the Conservative Party and we're prepared to help keep the Conservatives in power if our own party's peasants...I mean our rank-and-file party members...dare to keep defying us and continue to deny us the control of the Labour Party which is our liege right&quot .

The fact that Corbyn presents on television as such a calm, reasonable person will work against these types...and may help Corbyn and what I propose we call Next Labour to redefine what the terms "moderate left" and even "moderate" are taken to mean.

If any Blairites did cross over, I suspect Cameron or Osborne would give them peerages rather than let them stand as Tory candidates. Their presence on the hustings in 2020 would be the greatest motivator Labour could ask for.

I read an article about Farron's response to this earlier...he seems like a decent guy, and I think he's more bemused(or secretly amused)by the Labourites contacting him to whinge(he compared his role over the weekend to being an "agony aunt" or advice columnist)than anything else. Given how personally hated a lot of the Blairites are among Labour people and the left in general, I'm guessing Farron will be inclined to steer clear of them for the time being. None of the possible defectors have the stature that Shirley Williams, David Owen, Roy Jenkins and William Rodgers had at the time of their breakaway in the Eighties(and before they defected, none of those four were despised with the passion that people like Mandelson, Jack Straw, or Alistair Darling inspire now).
And those who formed the SDP had nothing to defend from their tenures in Cabinet that is remotely comparable to the Iraq War.

[T_i_B]

13. I disagree

Even if Corbyn does come across as calm, even reasonable, many of his views will continue to be regarded as being quite batty. From his views on Ukraine to reopening the coal mines, there's a lot that will put off segments of Labour's current support.

I think the hope is that the votes Corbyn loses to the Tories will be balanced by the votes gained from the Greens, SNP and those currently not voting.