Nicola Sturgeon challenges May with second referendum bill

[muriel_volestrangler]

Nicola Sturgeon is to publish a draft bill calling for a second Scottish independence referendum next week in a direct challenge to Theresa May’s hardline stance on leaving the EU.

The first minister told the Scottish National party conference in Glasgow she had a powerful political mandate to defend Scotland’s vote in favour of remaining in the EU in June’s referendum.

But the UK government’s recent rhetoric and policies on immigration and remaining within the EU single market made it clear the Tory party had now been taken over by its “rampant” and xenophobic right wing.

To applause, Sturgeon told the prime minister: “Hear this – if you think for one single second that I’m not serious about doing what it takes to protect Scotland’s interests, then think again.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/13/nicola-sturgeon-challenges-may-with-second-referendum-bill-scottish-independence-snp-conference

I didn't expect that this soon.

[non sociopath skin]

1. Inevitable, no?

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. At some time; but the polls don't seem to have moved on independence

eg https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/davidson-now-more-popular-sturgeon-scotland/

[Denzil_DC]

3. Well, they've certainly fluctuated!

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

Then:

Scots favour second independence referendum following Brexit, poll finds

That was a Survation poll at the end of June, which put support for an independence referendum at 47% for, 42% against (can't necessarily equate that to support for independence itself, though I'm dubious that Unionists would want a referendum; most of their energy seems devoted to shrieking at the prospect). An earlier poll run by the same outfit just after the Brexit referendum found: "53.7 per cent of Scots now want independence compared to just 46.3 who do not".

This is from today: Poll: One in 10 swayed to back independence by Brexit vote

It's worth bearing in mind that support for independence ran in the low 20% range two years before the 2014 referendum, climbing to its final figure of around 45% over the course of the campaign.

Since then, some of the hardline unionist press (and not a few high-public profile "Better Together" supporters) have changed their tack to supporting (more or less tentatively) independence. This is not insignificant, since the concerted (near 100%) anti-independence media onslaught in 2014 is no longer guaranteed. A number of key trump cards in Better Together's pack no longer seem so potent: e.g. "you can't have the pound", "certainty v. uncertainty", "you'll have no pension", and not least "you'd be out of the EU, adrift on yer own, mateys".

With so much uncertainty over what Brexit actually means (let alone what independence for Scotland would mean in that context), it's a hard one to poll at all reliably.

As for that YouGov poll you linked: Wings over Scotland (recently polled as "most trusted media outlet" in Scotland) fisked a similar Ipsos Mori poll that declared that Ruth Davidson (+21%) has a better approval rating that Nicola Sturgeon (+20% - not too shoddy for someone actually in power): http://wingsoverscotland.com/dissatisfaction-guaranteed/ Methodology is all, then there's the headlines trumpeted on the basis of the results.

I can't see the cross-tabs on the YouGov poll. If they don't include those aged 16+, then it's worthless, since people of that age were allowed a vote in indyref1, and I can't see that being different in a future one (the engagement and quality of debate from younger people put many adults to shame). {ETA: I now see the poll was of "1039 Scottish adults", so my comment about its worthlessness stands. There's also a BMG poll newly out "New poll shows 55% support for independence referendum if Tories pursue hard Brexit". The headline from the YouGov report also seems to be the answer to whether people want to see an indyref before Brexit, not at all!}

FWIW, I'm not in a rush for another indyref myself - in fact, there seems to be a surprising degree of patience among independence activists (I wouldn't count myself among them) about the timescale. Sturgeon's just getting her ducks in a row, as per the SNP's election manifesto.