Here's when COVID-19 could peak in Washington

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

An institute creating projections used by the White House coronavirus task force is estimating Washington could see more than 900 COVID-19 deaths before the end of the outbreak.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which is part of the University of Washington, entered the headlines on Tuesday when Dr. Deborah Birx said 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus pandemic are possible if social distancing is maintained. Her statement was backed up by data and projections from the institute.

IHME has its forecast published on its website. The projections are broken down by state and include estimated hospital and ICU beds needed, deaths per day and total deaths.

The estimates for Washington say the state will hit the peak of its curve for deaths per day on April 9. At that time, IHME estimates 22 people from Washington will die from COVID-19 every day.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/heres-when-covid-19-could-peak-in-washington/ar-BB128S79

[Canoe52]

1. I've been hitting the IHME website for a week now and their projections seemed light to me,

especially for the southern states. So I ran calculations based on the current doubling rate for a sampling of a handful of them and it just didn’t add up,

Then I noticed at the top of the screen it says “COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020”. As Rick Perry would say...“oops”.

Even if the state has issued stay at home orders, they are still allowing church services to go on, plus these are the states where they have been owning the libs by continuing to gather together this whole time, plus these are the states where 1/3 of the population has underlying health issues. If the governors have been going off the projections of the IHME, they may have ignored the basic assumption that these figures are derived from, ie FULL social distancing.