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Virginia Democrats Went Easy on Trump. Will It Cost Them the Governor's Race?
Retweeted by Dave Weigel: https://twitter.com/daveweigel
“Northam is the one who let Ed up off the mat.”
My latest on the #VAGov campaign:
Link to tweet
Virginia Democrats Went Easy on Trump. Will It Cost Them the Governor’s Race?
It’s Ralph Northam’s election to lose. And he just might.
ANDY KROLL NOV. 1, 2017 6:00 AM
“Why Gillespie Cannot Win.” ... That was the title of a two-page memo that circulated among a dozen Republican donors and activists in Virginia. It was late June. Ed Gillespie, the former Republican National Committee chairman and veteran lobbyist, had just squeaked out a victory in the GOP primary for governor over a Confederacy-loving county official he was expected to trounce.
The memo—shared with Mother Jones—laid out why Gillespie stood little chance of beating the Democratic nominee, Lt. Governor Ralph Northam. It described four key voting blocs in Virginia: northern Virginia suburbanites, voters in rural and semi-rural counties, heavily concentrated pockets of black voters around the state, and swing voters in counties such as Henrico, Loudoun, and Hanover. Republicans typically struggle in the suburbs and with black voters. To win statewide, the memo concluded, a GOP candidate needed to run up a net margin of at least 210,000 votes in 82 reliably Republican areas.
Trump won those 82 areas last year by 416,863 votes, the memo said. But Gillespie had lost all but a small number of them in this year’s Republican primary. And he hadn’t fared much better in his 2014 run for US Senate, racking up a paltry 182,000-vote margin in these places. Unless he drastically changed course, the memo said, Gillespie was toast in the governor’s race.
Fast-forward to today. The election is seven days away. The Virginia governor’s race has tightened to within several points. Northam, a pediatric neurologist and Army veteran, is the favorite, in a political climate favorable to Democrats, but Gillespie remains within striking distance. And as the race enters its final week, Democrats and Republicans alike are questioning what they see as a costly—and inexplicable—decision by Northam’s campaign: refusing to make the race more about Trump.
It’s Ralph Northam’s election to lose. And he just might.
ANDY KROLL NOV. 1, 2017 6:00 AM
“Why Gillespie Cannot Win.” ... That was the title of a two-page memo that circulated among a dozen Republican donors and activists in Virginia. It was late June. Ed Gillespie, the former Republican National Committee chairman and veteran lobbyist, had just squeaked out a victory in the GOP primary for governor over a Confederacy-loving county official he was expected to trounce.
The memo—shared with Mother Jones—laid out why Gillespie stood little chance of beating the Democratic nominee, Lt. Governor Ralph Northam. It described four key voting blocs in Virginia: northern Virginia suburbanites, voters in rural and semi-rural counties, heavily concentrated pockets of black voters around the state, and swing voters in counties such as Henrico, Loudoun, and Hanover. Republicans typically struggle in the suburbs and with black voters. To win statewide, the memo concluded, a GOP candidate needed to run up a net margin of at least 210,000 votes in 82 reliably Republican areas.
Trump won those 82 areas last year by 416,863 votes, the memo said. But Gillespie had lost all but a small number of them in this year’s Republican primary. And he hadn’t fared much better in his 2014 run for US Senate, racking up a paltry 182,000-vote margin in these places. Unless he drastically changed course, the memo said, Gillespie was toast in the governor’s race.
Fast-forward to today. The election is seven days away. The Virginia governor’s race has tightened to within several points. Northam, a pediatric neurologist and Army veteran, is the favorite, in a political climate favorable to Democrats, but Gillespie remains within striking distance. And as the race enters its final week, Democrats and Republicans alike are questioning what they see as a costly—and inexplicable—decision by Northam’s campaign: refusing to make the race more about Trump.
