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mmonk

(52,589 posts)
Sat Mar 16, 2013, 10:17 AM Mar 2013

News & Observer Report Confirms Our Call

North Carolina’s Government Has Been Betting on a Bubble.


In a report by John Murawski titled, “Pipeline expansions could leave NC awash in shale gas“, Murawski details the pipeline expansion plans of Transco to add a reverse transit of its pipeline which runs from the Barnett shale region of the gulf to New York City. This is being done to handle the over-production of natural gas from the Marcellus shale region. The Wall Street driven over-production of natural gas has dropped the price levels whereby more exploration would not be profitable in the short term and would move drilling in North Carolina to the back of line in priority. North Carolina’s natural gas utilities Piedmont Natural Gas and PSNC Energy have signed onto long term deals with Transco.

In our website report, “Is North Carolina’s Government and the Energy Companies It Represents Betting Our Future on a Bubble? Who will be left with the damage?”, we reported the following:


The people providing us with reports on a natural gas bubble are as follows:

Art Berman-A petroleum geologist and consultant to the energy sector; editorial board member of The Oil Drum; Associate Editor of the AAPG Bulletin; and Director of The Association for the Study of Peak Oil.

David Hughes-A geoscientist who has studied the energy resources of Canada including the Geological Survey of Canada; developed the National Coal Inventory (Canada); Team Leader for Unconventional Gas on the Canadian Gas Potential Committee; has published, researched, and lectured widely on global energy and sustainability issues in North America and internationally.

Deborah Rogers-Started her financial career in London in investment banking; returned to US as a financial consultant for several Wall Street firms; appointed primary member to the US Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, an advisory committee within the Department of Interior; appointed to a task force reviewing placement of air monitors in the Barnett Shale region by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

What do these reports tell us? They present the following points:

In 2011, shale mergers accounted for $46.5 Billion in deals for Wall Street investment banks.

This occurred while shale wells underperformed in dollar terms.

Investment banks’ push and promotion created glut and new lows for natural gas prices.

Supply exceeded demand by a factor of four.

Price declines opened door for transactional deals worth billions securing large fees for investment bankers.

Created largest profit centers in investment banks’ energy portfolios since 2010.

Overproduction pushed in order to meet financial analysts’ production targets and support cash flow to operators’ imprudent leverage positions.

Citizens need to address the short-sighted and ideological influence of ALEC in the North Carolina General Assembly.

As we reported in, “Government Under The Influence. When private monopoly and government combine.”, Rep. Mike Hager, a former Duke Engineer and member of the corporate bill mill ALEC (American Legislative Exchange Council) has introduced a bill called the Affordable and Reliable Energy Act which repeals sections of Senate Bill 3 dealing with North Carolina’s Renewable Energy and Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS). This is an assault on North Carolina’s clean and renewable energy industry. Renewable energy sources employ around 15,000 North Carolinians currently and is growing. In the 4th quarter of 2012, North Carolina ranked number 1 in the country in creating clean energy jobs. Tell Mr. Hager and other ALEC members in the North Carolina Legislature not to kill off real clean energy jobs for imaginary dirty energy jobs.


Original with links (I'm the author).

4 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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News & Observer Report Confirms Our Call (Original Post) mmonk Mar 2013 OP
January 10, 2013 littlemissmartypants Mar 2013 #1
March 15, 2013 littlemissmartypants Mar 2013 #2
Many of the wells in Pa. haven't come on line yet. mmonk Mar 2013 #3
If the fracking bubble bursts supernova Mar 2013 #4

littlemissmartypants

(22,692 posts)
1. January 10, 2013
Sat Mar 16, 2013, 02:15 PM
Mar 2013
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-10/why-natural-gas-will-stay-cheap-in-2013

Six weeks ago, natural gas bulls were riding high. By Thanksgiving, prices had more than doubled since hitting a decade low of $1.90 per million BTUs in April. Heading into what was supposed to be a cold winter for the U.S.—at least compared with last year—the consensus view was that natural gas prices would be higher in 2013, since about half of all U.S. households heat their homes with natural gas. By the end of December, the median forecast of 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was that natural gas would average $3.75 for 2013.

A few weeks of warm weather later, and a lot of those forecasts look way too optimistic. Prices have fallen more than 20 percent since peaking at $3.90 per million BTUs in late November. With the National Weather Service predicting above-normal temperatures over the next 10 days for the eastern third of the U.S., that downward pressure is likely to continue. “We’re going to see a lot of guys coming in and changing their forecasts,” says Laurent Key, an energy analyst at Societe Generale (SCGLY) in New York. Key expects prices to bottom out around an average of $3.16 in the second quarter before climbing.

“If we end up repeating 2012, those expectations need to come down by about a buck,” says Scott Hanold, an energy analyst at RBC Capital Markets (RY) in Minneapolis. Goldman Sachs (GS) just lowered its 2013 price target by 50 cents, from $4.25 per million BTUs, to $3.75, still above the current price of $3.12.

littlemissmartypants

(22,692 posts)
2. March 15, 2013
Sat Mar 16, 2013, 02:16 PM
Mar 2013
On Thursday, prices got a good shake, with April natural gas (US:NGJ13) jumping nearly 4% to $3.81 per million British thermal units, the highest settlement since Nov. 27. The United States Natural Gas Fund (US:UNG) , an exchange-traded fund that tracks movements in natural-gas prices, has rallied 9.7% month to date.


The rally followed a U.S. Energy Information Administration report showing a bigger-than-expected 145 billion-cubic-foot drop in weekly natural-gas supplies, which took total supplies below 2 trillion cubic feet for the first time since mid-May 2011. Inventories are down 440 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level.


http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-03-15/markets/37725566_1_natural-gas-prices-natural-gas-shale-gas-wells

mmonk

(52,589 posts)
3. Many of the wells in Pa. haven't come on line yet.
Sat Mar 16, 2013, 02:43 PM
Mar 2013

With NC's more speculative well drilling, that will wait for the remaining Marcellus ones to get to market.

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