Polling, voting data, history indicate Democrats can win in NC this November

[littlemissmartypants]

This is the latest email from Progress NC Action, Patrick Zarcone. https://progressncaction.org/

The Weekly Memo is an email from Progress NC Action featuring messaging, talking points, and links of interest for the week ahead.

If you tune in to cable news or open up a newspaper, chances are that you’ve heard or read that President Joe Biden has no shot to beat Donald Trump in this fall’s election.

Not only is that untrue, but Biden and other Democrats on the ballot have a serious chance of winning, at least according to the latest polling, voting data and North Carolina’s recent electoral history.

A new Marist poll released earlier this week looking at both North Carolina registered voters and those who say they definitely plan to vote in November’s election shows just how close the race will be in North Carolina. The poll looks at the presidential election and gubernatorial race, with both showing very tight margins.

Trump holds a slight lead of three points, 51 to 48, over Biden, with one percent saying they are undecided. The poll also shows that Trump is leading Biden among independent voters, 52 to 46.

The good news is that Biden has gained support among white voters in North Carolina since 2020 with 41% support now, compared to 33% support four years ago.

While that's the good news, there is also some concerning news – Biden has lost support among Black voters (79% compared to 92% in 2020) and Trump has gained ground with voters aged 18-29 (49% vs. 40% in 2020) and 30-44 (51% vs. 43% in 2020).

As for the state’s gubernatorial race, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein holds a narrow lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, according to the Marist poll. Stein had the support of 49% of polled voters, compared to 47% for Robinson. Three percent said they are undecided.

Looking back over the past decade of elections in North Carolina, these close poll numbers should be no surprise. Democrats have fallen short in federal statewide elections by an average of fewer than two points - Kay Hagan received 49.2% of the vote in her 2014 U.S. Senate race, Hillary Clinton finished with 48.1% of the vote in 2016, Biden received 49.3% of the vote in 2020 and Cheri Beasley had the support of 48.1% of voters in her 2022 U.S. Senate race.

The current voter registration numbers in North Carolina show that neither party has an advantage among registered voters – there are 2.7 million unaffiliated voters compared to 2.4 million registered Democratic voters and 2.2 million Republican voters. There are also around 60,000 voters registered with other parties.

Right-wing MAGA extremist candidates like Robinson, NCDPI superintendent candidate Michele Morrow, the election-denying attorney general candidate Rep. Dan Bishop, and others are too dangerous and too extreme – and they must be defeated. These candidates are so extreme that even some North Carolina Republicans have said they’re too dangerous to vote for.

Democrats can’t rely on “moderate” Republicans to push them to victory, though. Instead, Democrats need to focus on the more than 800,000 unregistered eligible likely Democratic voters in North Carolina. Biden lost North Carolina by around 75,000 votes in 2020, even getting 10% of those 800,000 voters to register and vote for him could be enough to win here in November.

If Democrats can increase their numbers among key groups by just a few points, the path to victory will be right in front of them. The voter turnout data from the last presidential election tells the tale.

A look at the data shows that Black or African American turnout was 68% in 2020 (1,038,375 voters), but if Democrats can increase the turnout by even just three percent, based on current voter registration totals, that would give them 44,000 more votes for Democratic candidates.

If Democrats increase the Latine turnout from 59% in 2020 (134,568 voters) to 62% in November, based on current voter registration totals, that's close to another 9,000 votes.

Finally, if Democrats can increase their support among white voters from 33% in 2020 to 37% (which is less than Biden’s 41% support among white voters in the latest Marist poll) that will be good enough for another 180,000+ votes. Add all those numbers up and you get 233,000 more Democratic votes this fall, which would almost assuredly be more than enough to secure wins for their candidates in the state's biggest races.

Granted, that’s quite a few “ifs,” and it’s not as simple as plugging in a few numbers into a calculator, but these goals are attainable. North Carolina can become a blue state this November if the state and national Democratic parties and organizations do the hard work. That means hitting the pavement to knock on doors throughout the state, framing the stakes of this election in a way that educates voters as to the dangers of these MAGA extremist candidates, major voter registration efforts, and, most importantly, money. Just a little bit of investment can go a long way to reaching these goals and winning this fall.

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GOTV!