Race is tightening

[question everything]

Trafalgar Group (never heard of them) put Biden and Trump at 47 each.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/minnesota/


Tina smith leads Jason Lewis 48 to 45 - within the margin of error and is now considered a tossup.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/minnesota/

I really am afraid that Trump will win Minnesota. I did not realize, until recently, that he lost Minnesota in the smallest margin.

Smith and Biden better start condemning the "unrest" in the strongest terms. Blame it on outside agitators, or something. But speak up. Deflecting the blame to Trump will not do it.

Smith was interviewed this morning

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/video/4684941-sen-tina-smith-joins-esme-murphy-in-studio/

[MFM008]

1. Omg

Lets give it a rest.
There are still 2 months and 3 debates.

[BlueWavePsych]

2. Trafalgar Group is too much of an outlier

... to be credible.

[question everything]

4. Thanks. And welcome to DU

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

3. Trafalgar is GOP leaning pollster

But, if I remember correctly, they got Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016, as well as the Florida Gov and Senate races in 2018.

[question everything]

6. What about Emerson College?

Biden 51, Trump 49 which, I think, is also within the margin of error

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/

What also scares me, is that Fischbach is leading Peterson by 10 points.

[still_one]

5. Trafslgar is a c- rated pollster. Lets see what better rated pollsters come up with

[question everything]

7. Emerson, college? See above?

Emerson was before both Convention, 8/11. Trafalgar after the DNC, Aug 20. Will have to see after the RNC, too.

[still_one]

8. That is from August 18. Meaningless because that was before the conventions, and other things that

occurred since which you also noted

I want to see current polls, not 2 weeks ago

Here is averages

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/

Still too much volatility, however, they are tightening, and the looting and fires that interjected themselves in the protests did not help us, and it didn’t matter that a lot of that was from right wing groups

When the Mayor came out to show support for the protest, and they asked him if he was for defunding the police he said he was for reform, and the lead protester told him to get the fuck out, was not good optics, and I suspect this kind of stuff is what is hurting us

[Thekaspervote]

9. The only poll to correctly call 16 has Biden with a 14pt lead. High ratings..the race is not tight

****DAILY USC DORNSIFE POLL FOR AUG 29****

USC Dornsife is a daily head to head Biden v Trump poll.
https://election.usc.edu/

AUG 28 -- BIDEN -- 52.85
TRUMP -- 40.51

AUG 29 -- BIDEN -- 53.53
TRUMP -- 39.87

Add to this: ABC/IPSOS pOLLING INDICATES THAT THERE WAS NO TRUMP BOUNCE.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/8/30/1973510/-A-new-ABC-Ipsos-poll-shows-NO-Trump-post-convention-bounce

Also this
https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/many-are-afraid-say-it-not-close-race

[BlueWavePsych]

10. Dead tRrump bounce

... is over.

[still_one]

11. It won't be the National polls but the swing states that will determine the election

I am pretty confident we will win the popular vote, not so sure about the electoral college

[BlueWavePsych]

12. I'm getting a good feeling about FL, PA, MI, WI and even AZ.

[still_one]

14. I would have to see what happens in the next couple of weeks with the polling in those

states before I feel more optimistic

If we win the states you just named, then we win the election

[question everything]

15. But not for Minnesota. The polls that I cited are for Minnesota

[OrlandoDem2]

13. Biden needs to take MN!! It has voted Dem for 48 years! But if he locks up FL it's kinda moot.