Minnesota, U.S., and World Report updated late January 4, see #7 below

[progree]

Last edited Wed Jan 5, 2022, 01:57 AM - Edit history (6)

Wear your fucking mask before going around talking to your neighbors - see Rant in #6 below. Not everyone wants to be a fucking experiment as to whether they get the mild version or the hospitalization version of this. Now I have to be on symptom-watch and worry for the next 3-7 days

Edit: I changed the title to point to the January 4 situation - see #7 below. The original title of this Dec 31 OP was:
Minnesota Covid vacation is over, 7 day moving average is on the rise again End Edit

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html

Our daily new cases, 7 day moving average had fallen more than 47% between December 6 and December 27, while most of the country has been increasing.

but has risen, coincidentally 47%, from December 27 thru December 30. (A 47% rise doesn't make up for a 47% decrease, percentage changes are oddball in that way, anyway December 30 is still down 22% from December 6).

Daily new cases, 7 day moving average
Dec 6   4755   Recent peak, highest since last winter
Dec 27   2530   Recent low point
Dec 30   3713   Latest

Edited to add Of all 50 states, only one has declining cases, Maine. So we're not alone, 48 other states have rising cases.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html   End Edit.

Hospitalizations are still going down from a recent peak of 1776 on Dec. 10 (highest since last winter) to 1477 on Dec. 29, a decrease of 17%. But the rate of decline is slowing somewhat.

"Incomplete data" for December 30 hospitalization.

[question everything]

1. One can only hope that after the New Year celebrations we will start seeing a decline

[progree]

2. Hospitals Urge Those Seeking COVID Tests Not To Come To ERs

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2021/12/30/hospitals-urge-those-seeking-covid-tests-not-to-come-to-ers/

Nearly two years into the pandemic, the recent surge in cases caused by the Omicron variant is making for long lines at COVID-19 testing sites.

Lines stretched across the parking lot this afternoon in Brooklyn Park, for instance.

One woman WCCO spoke with said it took her about 40 minutes to get through, but the free sites in Minnesota remain your best option to get tested.

snip

“ERs are overwhelmed. So if you come to an ER to get tested, two things are going to happen that you don’t want. One, you’re going to be around a lot of people who have COVID. So if you don’t have covid, you might get it there. We do the best we can with masks, but if you want to find the place with the most amount of COVID cases, the emergency room is the best spot,” HCMC’s Dr. James Miner said. “Second, it’s going to take a really really long time.”

All statewide testing sites are closed New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

Some sites, like the one at Roy Wilkins Auditorium in St. Paul, are not reopening again until Monday, Jan. 3.

Minneapolis Vaccine Hunters (helping all of MN) -- most of their traffic lately is finding test kits and testing sites
https://www.facebook.com/groups/350853309230438/

[progree]

3. At home test kits and Omicron

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/omicron-tests/6346256/

Medical experts say some at-home COVID-19 tests may not be as effective in detecting omicron, 12/31/21

The Food and Drug Administration says early data shows those rapid tests can detect omicron, but that some are less effective than others.

Overall, antigen tests on the market tend to be roughly 85% effective in detecting COVID-19 ((presumably talking about Covid-19 overall, not specifically about Omicron --Progree)).

(snip)

But Binnicker says omicron’s genetic makeup may be making it hard to detect.

He advises if you test negative, and are still having symptoms, to go get a nasal swab PCR test.

It’s considered much more accurate and reliable.

[progree]

4. No Covid update today, Friday, December 31 (holiday)

Last edited Sat Jan 1, 2022, 02:24 AM - Edit history (1)

Next update will be Monday Jan 3 at 11 AM.

I usually look for the story on WCCO shortly after 11 AM:
https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/category/news/local/

But it's also posted on the Situation Update page of the Minnesota Department of Health
https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html

EDITED TO ADD: - normally, there are reports 5 days a week, Monday through Friday, and none on weekends. Monday's report is just the Friday data. Tuesday's report is the big one: 3 days all together, Saturday through Monday. Again this is during normal weeks, i.e. no holidays. Holidays screw it up further with additional non-report day(s).
End Edit

[progree]

5. The Minnesota Egghead's Covid Report by David H. Montgomery MPR

Last edited Sun Jan 2, 2022, 11:02 AM - Edit history (2)

actual title:

Minnesota’s second year of COVID, by the numbers
David H. Montgomery December 30, 2021 7:45 p.m.

Lots of graphs covering several aspects. Taking just one of them:

What struck me is that for the UNVAXXED:
2021 was 3 times more deadly than 2020.

That’s where the other big change from 2021 came in: the new, more dangerous variants.

... In late November 2020, during the deadly fall wave, Minnesota was averaging about one death per day per 100,000 unvaccinated people.

In late November 2021, with the delta variant, Minnesota was averaging about three deaths per day per 100,000 unvaccinated people.

There's a graph with 2020 and 2021 by month for comparison with each other.

Omicron was not a factor in Minnesota in November.

Death data is not complete for 2021 (although it should be pretty much complete for November deaths) ...

Comparing death rates is tricky because it often takes weeks for deaths to be formally reported. So we won’t have a final death count for 2021 until a month or more into 2022.

Then for the VAXXED, I know this is old news that the death rate is much lower for the vaxxed than the unvaxxed, but anyway

The death rate among vaccinated Minnesotans was about 0.22 deaths per day per 100,000 people.

Compared to 3 per day per 100,000 for the unvaxxed in 2021.

[progree]

6. Minn daily new cases, 7dma, up 62% in 7 days. UPDATE: Tuesday's report is BAD. And RANT

Last edited Tue Jan 4, 2022, 07:19 PM - Edit history (5)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html

7dma = 7 day moving average
Vacation is over.

==============================
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

U.S. daily new cases 7dma up 238% in 14 days (that's 3.38 fold), and nearly double the all-time high of last winter

Hospitalizations up 2.1 fold since a November 10 low point

==============================
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-cases.html

World daily new cases 7dma is 1.84 times the previous all time high of April 25 (excluding recent days in the current ramp-up that were also above the April 25 level)

EDIT: UPDATE 1130a Tuesday January 4, per the 1100 AM Minn Dept of Health, Tuesday (usually the big day when Friday through Monday, 3 days, are reported), we had 16,204 cases, up from 9,873 the previous Tuesday, so the 7 day will make another big upward move.

A word to the Mr. and Ms. Cools out there, you know, its mild blah blah blah. That's fine, but don't assume every one is where they should be - some of us are immunocompromised, or other health issues, old, and not everyone is boosted that should be. Like the half dose Moderna booster on top of the original one-shot Johnson & Johnson vax, argghhhh, that's supposed to work?. Nor do we want to be subject to a fucking experiment to see if we will get the mild version or the hospitalization version of Omicron. And we don't know yet if there will be a long-Covid with this or not.

Anyway, I have a neighbor, by the way, a Democrat who should know better. I'm standing inside my doorway behind my closed storm door looking out the big storm door window, and he walks up, maskless and opens my fucking storm door while I'm still standing right there, so we have nothing but air between us, and wishes me a happy new year and tells me about some plumbing issue that affected the whole village for a couple of hours. We get in a short conversation, including about Covid, I hope he saw the extreme tension on my face and noticed I was standing back somewhat, but some of the Mr. and Ms. Cools, including some of the Democratic versions of those, can be oblivious.

The maskless neighbor by the way was probably talking to other people along the row about the plumbing issue (he's on the home owner association board). Yeah, you don't have to wear a mask every time you go outside. But if you're going deliberately to talk to your neighbors, wear your goddam mask

[progree]

7. January 4 report - 14 day changes: Minnesota: +70%, Hennepin: +197%, Ramsey: +144%

NYTimes has been updated with Tuesday January 4 data -- Minnesota daily new cases have surpassed their recent (Dec 7) peak and are now the higher than any time since last winter.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html

7dma = 7 day moving average

(This Tuesday's numbers is the result of 4 days, not the usual 3 days that are reported from Tuesday)

Note that the 7dma new cases had recently fallen by 1/3 from Dec 7 to December 27 before moving up again.

14 day changes: Minnesota:+70%, Hennepin: +197%, Ramsey +144%. There new cases per 100,000 are 144 and 121 respectively, that's sky high.

Hospitalized and deaths still trending slightly down. (See U.S. overall below - hospitalizations have recently jumped).

================================================

U.S. overall: daily new cases, 7dma, now double (2.2 X) their all-time peak set last January 11

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

Hospitalizations 7dma as of January 3 are 97,847, more than double their recent low of November 10. The upward trend began accelerating around December 26, and is currently (Jan 3) 35% above that point (8 days ago)

Deaths are trending up ever so slightly recently after having been essentially flat since early December.

The New York Times map has changed a hell of a lot in the last 24 hours

================================================

WORLD: daily new cases, 7dma, now double their previous April peak. Deaths still declining.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html