Drought-busting El Niño getting less likely

[petronius]

The idea of an El Niño rescuing California from its devastating drought appears to be nothing more than wishful fancy.

Not only have climate scientists recently downgraded the strength of a potential El Niño, but a report released Thursday by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center indicates that the odds of an El Niño happening this year at all are down.

An El Niño is the much-watched warming of the Pacific Ocean that tends to influence worldwide weather and has had many in California hoping it will trigger a wet winter for the rain-starved state.

While Thursday's climate report suggests that an El Niño is still likely, the chances of seeing one this fall or winter dropped from 80 percent - projected in early reports - to 65 percent.

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http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Drought-busting-El-Ni-o-getting-less-likely-5674795.php

[4139]

1. PDO has turn positive(warm), in theory that should help

"Positive PDO values are usually associated with wetter conditions in the Southwestern United States, while negative PDO values..."

http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography-book/oceananddrought.html