California's in an exceptional earthquake drought. When will it end?

[Zorro]

California is in an earthquake drought.

It has been almost five years since the state experienced its last earthquake of magnitude 6 or stronger — in Napa. Southern California felt its last big quake on Easter Sunday 2010, and that shaker was actually centered across the border, causing the most damage in Mexicali.

Experts know this calm period will eventually end, with destructive results. They just don’t know when this well-documented geological pattern will shift.

“Earthquake rates are quite variable: We have a decade or two where we don’t have many earthquakes, and people expect that’s what California is always like,” said Elizabeth Cochran, seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. Eventually, “we’re going to dramatically see a change in earthquake rates.”

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-drought-storm-20190402-story.html

[Tiggeroshii]

1. Anything to be said about if there is correlation with fracking?

if that could affect ewrthquake prevalence?

[JayhawkSD]

2. No significant fracking is done in California.

We don't have that type of oil fields.

[Brother Buzz]

5. But there's the curious case of Geyserville earthquakes caused by injecting water

According to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Earth Sciences division, seismicity was very low prior to the use of the Geyser steam field for geothermal energy, although this may have been the result of low seismic coverage of the area. Before 1969, there were no earthquakes above magnitude 2 recorded by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in an approximately 70 square miles (180 km2) area around the Geysers. Studies have shown that injecting water into the Geysers field produces earthquakes from magnitude 0.5 to 3.0, although a 4.6 occurred in 1973 and magnitude four events increased thereafter. Even with increasing injection rates over time, the rate of magnitude 3 earthquakes has remained relatively unchanged since the 1980s, although the amount of earthquakes has increased significantly. A magnitude 4.5 earthquake struck near the Geysers on January 12, 2014. Despite the increases in the number of earthquakes and the fears of local residents, it is unlikely that a large earthquake will occur at the Geysers since there is no large earthquake fault or fracture nearby.

5 earthquakes in the past 24 hours
28 earthquakes in the past 7 days
117 earthquakes in the past 30 days
1,069 earthquakes in the past 365 days

[BigmanPigman]

3. I felt that 2010 one.

My dog didn't notice but I sure as Hell did. I usually do. I just checked out a list and before 2014 there was a "drought" between 2010-2014 too.

Date Name Area Mag. MMI Deaths Injuries Total damage / notes
2014-08-24 South Napa North Bay 6.0 Mw VIII 1 ~200 $362 m–$1 b
2014-03-28 La Habra LA Area 5.1 Mw VI Few $10.8 m [7]
2010-04-04 Baja California Baja California 7.2 Mw VII 2–4 100–233 $1.15 b
2010-01-09 Eureka North Coast 6.5 Mw VI 35 $21.8–43 m
2008-07-29 Chino Hills LA Area 5.5 Mw VI 8 Limited
2007-10-30 Alum Rock South Bay 5.6 Mw VI Limited
2003-12-22 San Simeon Central Coast 6.6 Mw VIII 2 40 $250–300 m
2000-09-03 Yountville North Bay 5.0 Mw VII 41 $10–50 m
1999-10-16 Hector Mine Eastern 7.1 Mw VII 4–5 Limited
1994-01-17 Northridge

[Auggie]

4. If it must end I hope Orange Covfefe is out of office.