California
Related: About this forumLatest polling: props 30 and 37 barely hanging on with ~48% Yes
I went to ballotpedia and looked up latest polling data for proposition 30 (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_30,_Sales_and_Income_Tax_Increase_%282012%29) and proposition 37 (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_37,_Mandatory_Labeling_of_Genetically_Engineered_Food_%282012%29). The latest polls find both with around 48% support as of now. For p37, ~40% no and 12% undecided. P30: ~44% no, ~8% undecided.
Looking at previous polling, the failed prop. 19 had 49% No in the final pre election poll (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_19,_the_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_%282010%29). More recently, the tobacco tax Proposition 29 (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_29,_Tobacco_Tax_for_Cancer_Research_Act_%28June_2012%29) had 50% support in the last poll; by a very narrow margin it failed at the ballot box. I think the best way to predict whether a proposition will definitely pass is if its last pre election poll has over 50% yes support, see the open primary proposition 14 from 2010 as example, it had 52% yes in its latest poll and ultimately passed (http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_14,_Top_Two_Primaries_Act_%28June_2010%29).
My personal thoughts on prop 30: I don't want education to be cut, but where's the evidence that the funding will be absolutely earmarked for education rather than dumped in the general fund? In fact the nonpartisan legislative analyst office reports: "The 2012-13 budget plan (1) assumes that voters approve this measure and (2) spends the resulting revenues on various state programs. A large share of the revenues generated by this measure is spent on schools and community colleges." The "various state programs" part is probably what turns off many California voters, not just the right wing tea party types but also independents, moderates, and even some Democrats as well! California politics is so frustrating sometimes.
roody
(10,849 posts)We need something to regain our food sovereignty.
Tumbulu
(6,291 posts)and of the people that I have spoken with, most are voting yes. I did spend over 10 minutes talking with a voter about each and every argument the big businesses have put up against it. She claims that I convinced her to vote yes....but who knows.... I'll continue trying, it is so important and should have been done 25 years ago.
roody
(10,849 posts)in front of grocery stores doing the same.
Tumbulu
(6,291 posts)What is your impression from talking to people?
Just got home from a PTA meeting with a presentation about Prop 38 which California PTA supports. The presenter, a local teacher, stated those funds go directly to the schools and only 1% can be used for administrative costs at the district level. Parents and the school community decide how the funds will be spent. Also, part of the money will be used for the first few years to pay off the school bonds so actual school allocation increases as the years go on. My children are almost out of school but if neither of these measures pass we will be funding education at the lowest per pupil rate in the nation. So much has already been cut...the trigger cuts would be catastrophic.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)to respond to problems in our society other than education with the money it raises. It does not, for example, provide relief on college tuition in our state schools -- and that is undeniably a very serious problem.
Also, Prop. 38 as opposed to Prop. 30 imposes taxes on people earning as little as $7,500 per year.
The California Democratic Party has endorsed Prop. 30.
In my opinion, Prop. 38 is the rogue effort of a few very wealthy people to protect the very rich from having to bear an appropriate share of the burden for funding the state.
I support our Democratic governor and Prop. 30.
According to the California Democratic Party website,
Proposition 38
Increases tax rates for Californians earning as little as $7,316 per year
Raises taxes on middle class families at almost the same rate as millionaires
Forces a $6 billion cut to education this year
Cuts the school year short for K-12 Students
http://www.stopthemiddleclasstaxhike.com/
Tumbulu
(6,291 posts)I am voting yes on 30, no question!
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)SunSeeker
(51,574 posts)The ads were horribly misleading. Suggesting the money from 30 would not reach schools and that 37 was full of holes and will cost jobs. Of course, just the opposite is true. But I've only heard a few pro-37 ads, and Brown's pro-30 ads are drowned out by the anti-30 ads. This is CA politics at its worst, and Citizens United has put it on steroids.
alp227
(32,034 posts)Anti-30 ads I've seen on TV and in mailers quote the CSBA: "...the governor's initiative does not provide new funding for schools."
The reality: the CSBA did endorse BOTH P30 and P38. The full context:
SunSeeker
(51,574 posts)roody
(10,849 posts)election day.
Raine
(30,540 posts)cally
(21,594 posts)If it passes, then we are more likely to see increased taxes on the wealthy nationally. If it fails, then I suspect most elected officials will be scared to raise taxes and instead agree to cut programs.
It's one of the first states who would have tried to reverse all the Reagan era tax cuts on wealth citizens.
Raine
(30,540 posts)on 30.
alp227
(32,034 posts)GiaGiovanni
(1,247 posts)He has already been told this. His boss will also be cut back.