Re: the lottery and odds

[Duer 157099]

All this talk about how unlikely it is to win, using statistics etc.

I think that there is an astronomical (large) difference between buying one ticket and buying zero tickets.

But I think there's also an astronomical (small) difference between bying one ticket and multiple tickets. That is, there is no need to buy more than one.

This is my own math, of course. But it strikes me that it might be like calculus somehow.

[Tony_FLADEM]

1. There is a way to reduce your odds

It's called the Wheeling System. For example, in a 6 of 53 number lottery, you can pick 7 numbers and play 7 different combinations or 28 combinations with 8 numbers.
You divide the odds by the number of tickets played.

If you played 8 numbers the odds would be 1 in 819910.

[davsand]

2. You for sure won't win if you don't buy a ticket.

I bought a ticket figuring that somebody's gotta win that sucker sooner or later--might as well be me! (As Jayne said in Firefly, "It could happen!&quot



All joking aside, I look at stuff like this as being kinda like going to the movies. I go to the theater and I pay money to be entertained for the 2 hours that it takes to see that movie. I buy a lottery ticket and I get to fantasize about winning until the winner is chosen. That lottery ticket costs quite a bit less than the movie ticket, and if I buy it right after the last drawing, I get to fantasize longer...



Laura

[lastlib]

13. You have to buy a TICKET???? DA&%!! No Wonder......!

[lunatica]

3. I only bought one for the very reason you state

Because one ticket improves my odds by 100% over none, but more doesn't improve my odds any more than one does.

[Duer 157099]

4. Then why do I have this strong urge to go by a few more?

I know it's illogical but I keep thinking... hmmm, maybe I should get another...

[cynatnite]

9. Me, too. Husband said $25 was more than enough...

I told him that a guy spent $500. He said he'd rather us be out $25 than $500.

So, I'm sticking with what I got.

Oh, and $10 of that is Powerball. Not many people are buying that so maybe I've got a shot.

[lastlib]

14. Actually, one ticket versus none improves your chances by infinity....

(there's a division by zero thing in there...I won't bore you with it.)

[Myrina]

5. My Stats Prof used to have a sign on her office door:

"Lottery Tickets: A Tax on People Who Can't Do Math"

[siligut]

6. Math astute Mr gut and I had this very discussion last night

He wanted to buy $20 worth of tickets, knowing the numbers and didn't care, it is luck he said. Luck isn't logical, but who knows.

I told him it doesn't matter how many, but buy at least one. I don't know how many he bought, but I am going to buy one today. It is exciting just to play.

[SwissTony]

7. Years ago, I was teaching school.

The group of teachers I was working in decided to enter the lottery. I don't believe in it (I'm a statistician by training) but just to be social...

Every week, a different person chose the combinations. When it came to me, I chose combinations like (1,2,3,4,5,6) and combinations in the form of a rectangle or a cross. One of my coworkers was a bit peed off stating that such combinations could never win. I was never invited to choose the numbers again.

Some years later, I read in a Dutch statistical journal that some combinations (such as (1,2,3,4,5,6)) shouldn't be picked - not because they were less likely than a more varied combination, but because such combinations were chosen by quite a few people. Other combinations to avoid were those based on the birthdays of the Dutch royal family.

[Duer 157099]

11. The notion of avoiding certain numbers because many people pick them

sounds silly to be. I'd rather share 640 million with others than zerio all to myself.

I don't get the logic.

[SwissTony]

12. Any combination of numbers has the same chance of being chosen as any other.

So, (1,2,3,4,5,6) is just as good as, say, (7,12,19,24,35,40) - but not any better in terms of being chosen. If the you pick the first combination and it wins, you'll have to share the prize with "many" others, whereas if you chose the second and it wins, you'd have to share with just a few people, perhaps none.

[backwoodsbob]

8. 100 people in my shop(about) who pooled

10 bucks each....1000 tickets

[DebJ]

10. Yup, and as I always say to myself, It only takes one ticket to lose.

[cherokeeprogressive]

15. your odds are 50 / 50

you either win or you dont.