Dr Berg Corona Virus clip

[Quixote1818]

Last edited Sun Feb 23, 2020, 11:19 PM - Edit history (1)

A bit outdated but he is right about the hype.

[lapfog_1]

1. not just slightly out of date, wildly out of date

According to John Hopkins CSSE (which is likely very conservative).

78,971 confirmed infections, 2,468 dead so far (now a little over 1 month into the pandemic).

The death rate is around 9.5%... now that we have large numbers of people who have been infected and had an "outcome" (recovered or died).

This is the correct way to calculate the death rate now that we have 10s of thousand of outcome to measure.

The current spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran show that the containment has failed (at least partially).

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Quixote1818]

3. 9.5% death rate? Forbes is saying the death rate has dropped to 1% for those who became ill after

February 1st.

Snip:


You’re better off getting it this month than last month. Those who became ill before January 10, 2020 had an up to 15% mortality, whereas those who became ill after February 1, 2020 have had less than 1% mortality. This is likely due to extremely heightened awareness of potential for infection, with resultant earlier recognition and earlier interventions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2020/02/22/sex-does-matter-when-it-comes-to-coronavirus/#4cad95d4a436

[apcalc]

2. His death figures for COVid19 are wrong...25? No.

[Warpy]

4. It's WAY outdated

but the BBC has some handy dandy charts that break it down better, so as of a day or two ago,

Corvid-19: Cases: 78,810 Deaths 2462, or a fatality rate of roughly 3.1%. That is likely to climb a bit as people succumb to it, possibly getting to as high as 5% in developed countries, higher in the third world.

SARS: Cases: 8096; deaths 774, or a fatality rate of 9.6%

MERS: Cases: 2494; fatalities 898, or a fatality rate of 36.1%, which might reflect differences in care. I wouldn't get too intimate with any camels, though.

Old folks with underlying illness need to be worried about this one, but younger people tend to shake it off.

There are worse killers out there, ebola, Marburg and hantavirus come to mind.

And if it's at all comforting, it's likely flu will kill more people this year simply because it is more contagious.

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105