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[samnsara]

1. i dont think sooooooooo.....

[LiberalLovinLug]

19. hmmmm. Where did I hear that before?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

32. Me neither... not if Bernie's got anything to say about it.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Iliyah]

2. Putin told me sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[democratisphere]

3. The Russians are ready, willing and able to help.

But there won't be any collusion. Promise.

[yaesu]

12. Barr just gave the russians the all clear to do it again. nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

33. With Mueller's help, that slimeball. Wonder how much the Russians paid him.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Cicada]

4. The betting markets have him an underdog

Betting markets aren’t perfect but they have a proven track record of being pretty good.

[Snake Plissken]

16. You must have missed the last presidential election

Here is a graph of the betting market in 2016




You could have won some serious money on Kavanaugh too, if you bet on him being confirmed.

[Cicada]

20. They had Trump with a 25% chance to win. That sounds correct to me.

If I remember correctly the great Nate Silver had it like that too. Unlikely things happen sometimes. That doesn’t mean they were likely. So to gauge accuracy of a betting site we need to compare their expected results over many trials. If the have given 25% odds in a thousand elections and the underdog won 250 times, that’s excellent. That the betting sites gave Trump better odds than all the experts we saw on TV suggests they are worth paying attention to.

But so far we have limited data on election predictions by betting sites. Maybe you’re right.

[samnsara]

24. trump only won because of russian interference..

...and as much as i love HRC we will have different opponents for him this year..some he wont be able to bully so easily. MANY many variables will be different next time around.

[marylandblue]

28. The interesting thing about betting sites is they can account for Russian interference.

There was evidence that Russia was helping Trump based on news reports. So if you thought that help could really make a difference, or you knew more about it than the average person, you can make a bet.

[Zoonart]

5. Can we please stop hanging the crepe here?

[tomhagen]

6. Abolish the Electoral College now

[in2herbs]

7. By passing a law preventing presidential candidates from getting on the ballot unless they provide

10 years of tax returns will stop Trump. Why aren't the democratically controlled states with dem governors passing such a law?

[UniteTheLeft]

22. Taxes should only be part of that resume

I mean let's have some other actual qualifications for the highest office in the land. Tax returns are only a small part of the puzzle.

Let's see... How about having a minimum of actual political experience. Like at least 5 years as a, Mayor, Governor, or state/US congressperson or senator.
I could go on, but I'm sure everyone who's ever applied for a position they really wanted can agree that to become president of the USA then you shouldn't be bothered by the people wanting you to have the education, experience, and an upstanding moral reputation to be considered for the job.

[cstanleytech]

23. Are there enough Democratic controlled states for such a thing to matter currently?

If there are not then focusing to much on such a thing is pointless for now.

[leftieNanner]

31. Actually, I don't think they can

States run their own elections, but I don't think they can set their own rules for federal elections. Several states have passed just such laws, but I don't know if they will hold up in court.

Correct me if I'm wrong here.

[Vogon_Glory]

8. Is He Indeed Barrelling Towards Re-Election?

I don’t think so.

Donnie got into the White House in large part due to an apathetic electorate and poorly mobilized Democratic voting block.

Donnie crested over the Blue Wall in part due to both the bigots coming out of the woodwork and the hopeful marks believing that he’d bring jobs and good times back to the Rust Belt. Donnie’s still got the bigots and the Holy Joes but a lot of the people who believed his economic BS have been wised up—the same way the folks at Lordstown and Carrier have been.

Granted, his victories in places like Michigan and Wisconsin were by slivers, but he’s been losing backers by slivers since Inauguration Day 2017. There may be suckers who can be scammed multiple times, but there are other suckers who can only get conned once because they learn from experience. The death by a thousand cuts might not be as spectacular as a curb-stomp or a decapitation, but it is nevertheless fatal.

This nay-sayer might have half a point: beating Orange Julius won’t be a cake walk. But long hard slogs can bring victory too.

[Gothmog]

9. Economic models point to a Trump blowout in 2020. But a faltering economy or giant scandal could cha

I have seen similar studies. It is not a given that trump is beatable in 2020. If the economy is in good shape, then there are models and studies that show that trump can win. Obama left trump with a great economy and trump may not screw up the Obama economy before 2020 and get re-elected.

Link to tweet

I am not counting on the Obama economy faltering and so I am worried. We have to defeat trump

Trump could prove these models wrong by being the biggest asshole in history. Again, historically presidents tend to be re-elected if the economy is in good shape at the time of the re-election and even trump may not e able to screw up the Obama recovery

We need to work even harder to defeat trump

[Vogon_Glory]

14. Is Outrage a measurable economic variable?

Donnie’s renewed attack on the ACA isn’t going to help his re-election chances outside exurban Trumpista trailer parks.

[Gothmog]

25. I hope that the 2020 election is about the ACA and health care and not the economy

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Thekaspervote]

18. Politico they go from fence riding to right leaning... sad!!

[Gothmog]

26. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it

I want to defeat trump in 2020. If the economy is in good shape (i.e., if trump has not managed to destroy the Obama recovery), then this will be difficult. The historical studies cited above are real and we need to work hard to defeat trump

This may mean going with the most electable candidate and not with a candidate who is too liberal.

[marylandblue]

29. Economic models showed Clinton winning in 2016.

And properly speaking, they aren't really economic models, since they are predicting political behavior not economic behavior.

[Gothmog]

34. There were models that predicted trump winning

Professor Lichtman is well respected and he predicted that trump would win
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016” are:

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, sat down with The Fix this week to reveal who he thinks will win in November and why 2016 was the most difficult election to predict yet. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

[marylandblue]

35. At least that's a political model but he fudges it.

In 2000, he predicted Gore would win. When Gore lost, he said the model predicts the popular vote. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote, and took credit for accurately predicting Trump.

I still think the model is useful, but not enough to decide a close race. Also it's subjective. I disagreed with him on one of the keys and predicted a Clinton win. So maybe the takeaway is if one key is ambiguous and can change the outcome, it will be a close race.

[Gothmog]

36. I disagreed with Lichman's model in 2016

I still think that trump won due to a combination of (a) Russia help, (b) Comey's stupidity and (c) voter suppression. I also believe that we need to nominate the strongest possible candidate to beat trump. I do not believe that a far left nominee will have a chance against trump if the economy is good.

[kurtcagle]

38. 2020 economy will NOT help Trump

I think the yield curve clearly inverting (it's been heading that way for a while now) and the lousy February job numbers are both yet more indicators that the economy is softening (as ironically, is the very low unemployment percentage - historically, that's actually a fairly reliable sign that a recession is imminent). There were a lot of investors that piled into the market after the disastrous December, pushing the stock market up to about its mid-range, but that's actually another potential indicator - the completion of what's often called a head and shoulders pattern.

Any president inherits the momentum (positive or negative) of their predecessor for about a year before their own policies begin to affect the markets, and the second year represents a transitional ramp up as their own policies began to actually get implemented in the economy. Larger corporate leaders were pretty happy with Trump, but even that's beginning to sour as the tariffs begin to disrupt supply chain availability and costs in that sector have risen.

So, I think that by the time the 2020 elections roll around, Trumps going to be facing some serious headwinds from the economy.

[Chakaconcarne]

10. WTF is this bullshit?

Strike 3 for this dude.....for me anyway.

[Pepsidog]

13. Take nothing for granted but this MF'er will lose 2020. Everything he touches turns to shit so no

doubt the economy will stumble and he will be tossed out on his big fat ass. Also I am reserving judgement until we see the Mueller Report. I don't want him impeached but i want to set the record straight for historical purposes. Mueller exonerated him with regards to collusion/conspiracy and would have done so with obstruction if he could. Mueller could not indict thus could not conclude Trump obstructed which would have delegitimized the United States President. Mueller had 2 choices; Exonerate or leave it to congress. The evidence could not exonerate so he left it for Congress, not Barr to follow up.

[RussBLib]

15. bullshit - n/t

[SWBTATTReg]

17. I think w/ the games rump and Barr just played on us in covering up the Mueller report AND...

due to rump's poor management skills (none in fact), will all together wipe these scumbags from office in 2020 w/ an overwhelming democratic victory.

Nothing like waking up the angry bear (democrats, independents, former repugs) like rump and barr did in their blatant cover up of the Mueller report.

Like a lot of us, I am angry and disgusted at the manner of this blatant cover up, but not surprised. I kind of suspected that something of this nature would happen. What gets me wondering, is that since Mueller seems to be pretty intelligent, and pretty honest and respectful, and went dutifully after those who did wrong doing (and got multiple convictions/indictments), is did he make additional copies of everything that the Mueller report is, as well as supporting documents. I would have.

What are they so concerned with in NOT providing the Mueller report to the American public in full?

Screams cover up any way you look at it.

History will judge those harshly who are guilty of wrongdoing and cover ups AND those who were supposed to watch and provide a constitutionally mandated checks and balances upon this so called president.

[gilligan]

21. Not

If i can help it.
VOTE!

[happybird]

27. Bullshit. n/t

[stonecutter357]

30. How do you get a way with spamming DU ?

[secondwind]

37. No he is not..and we don't need these negative posts!

[smirkymonkey]

39. No fucking way!

Over my dead body! Landslide? You must be joking. Two-thirds of the people in this country despise him. I don't see any landslide unless there is massive cheating.

[paleotn]

40. If so....

we and the rest of New England are leaving. We'll take NH and "the county" kicking and screaming.

[czarjak]

41. Like last time?