AI To Displace 40% Of Jobs Worldwide In 15 Years: Venture Capitalist

[appalachiablue]

Last edited Sun Jan 20, 2019, 06:54 PM - Edit history (2)

Kai-Fu Lee, an artificial intelligence/AI pioneer, venture capitalist, billionaire and author of the new book, "AI Superpowers" discusses various aspects of AI with Scott Pelley on CBS '60 Minutes' show, Jan. 2019. Lee claims that in 15 years, 40% of the world's jobs will be replaced by AI, for both blue collar and white collar occupations.

Goodreads Review. "AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order" by Kai-Fu Lee (Goodreads Author). THE NEW YORK TIMES, USA TODAY, AND WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee—one of the world’s most respected experts on AI and China—reveals that China has suddenly caught up to the US at an astonishingly rapid and unexpected pace. In AI Superpowers, Kai-fu Lee argues powerfully that because of these unprecedented developments in AI, dramatic changes will be happening much sooner than many of us expected. Indeed, as the US-Sino AI competition begins to heat up, Lee urges the US and China to both accept and to embrace the great responsibilities that come with significant technological power.

Most experts already say that AI will have a devastating impact on blue-collar jobs. But Lee predicts that Chinese and American AI will have a strong impact on white-collar jobs as well. Is universal basic income the solution? In Lee’s opinion, probably not...https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38242135-ai-superpowers

[Sherman A1]

1. This is why I am looking at Andrew Yang

as a candidate. He has this already covered in his book and his platform.

[AlexSFCA]

2. low profile candidate but his ideas will become mainstream

he needs more coverage to ensure that public at large starts to think about what’s coming

[Sherman A1]

4. He isn't getting a lot of mainstream coverage but he is

running a campaign in Iowa and other spots.

[appalachiablue]

6. Just learned about Yang, from online info, a video. Very interesting, bright.

[appalachiablue]

5. Good info., Yang 2020, robots, UBI-Univ. Basic Income. Very promising.

*"Meet Andrew Yang, A 2020 US Presidential Hopeful Running Against The Robots," Quartz, Dec. 7, 2018. Andrew Yang doesn’t mince his words: He doesn’t think the robots are coming; he knows they are already here. And he wants to take his concerns about this all the way to the White House. “I’m Andrew Yang, and I’m running for President as a Democrat in 2020 because I fear for the future of our country,” reads the 1st sentence of the website for his long-shot campaign.

Yang is worried about a future where the automation of jobs leads to “the disintegration of our society.” His solution to stop that from happening is giving every adult US citizen $1,000 a month. He isn’t the 1st presidential hopeful to endorse the idea of a universal basic income (UBI)—even Hillary Clinton is a fan—but he is certainly one of the most outspoken for why we need it.

As a former corporate lawyer and founder of Venture for America, a fellowship program to help entrepreneurs start businesses in cities like Detroit and Cleveland, he brings a jobs-first approach to tackling many of the country’s social and economic problems. UBI isn’t the only tenet of his campaign. There are more than 70 policy recommendations on his website,..https://qz.com/1485345/meet-andrew-yang-a-2020-us-presidential-hopeful-running-against-the-robots/

*YANG 2020, Campaign Website, https://www.yang2020.com/
*VIDEO Short. Andrew Yang Talks About Universal Basic Income And Running On It For President.
https://nowthisnews.com/videos/money/venture-for-americas-andrew-yang-talks-about-universal-basic-income

[Eliot Rosewater]

26. UBI is the only logical thing to do and do it now.

Just like it makes NO SENSE for the Koch Bros to own Waikiki Beach or Yellowstone, but if this shit keeps going the way it is, they will.

Cant allow people or corps to own dirt. That is TOTAL madness.

[appalachiablue]

30. Yes, now since we know it will take tons of effort & time

and then some esp. with the powerful opposition.

[appalachiablue]

7. Looks very promising, I just learned about him and hope his

coverage picks up.

[RussBLib]

3. whew, I guess we retired in time

It would be a little scary to be a 20-something in the work force these days. So much uncertainty.

Of course, every generation thinks that things are the worst ever.

[pansypoo53219]

8. they always said LEISURE, not unemployment.

[appalachiablue]

12. They erred, bigtime.

[bitterross]

9. Wonder how they caught up

From the article:

China has suddenly caught up to the US at an astonishingly rapid and unexpected pace.

Sure seems like they've been stealing a lot of intellectual property to me.

[RainCaster]

10. Then there will be a 40% retraction

But by then, those who know the true skills in in demand won't have any interest. Example: IMO, there will always be a need for those who can negotiate between companies, governments or parties in a suit. Lawyers, diplomats, and salesman.

By the time big business realizes they fucked up by outsourcing this to AWS it will be too late. All of us who give a shit will be happily retired.

[OnDoutside]

17. Which is why I am happily guiding my kid, who expressed an interest in becoming a lawyer, along that

path. If not, something nice and safe within government or university. I'm a self employed computer programmer, and it's become an awful lot tougher out there, than 20 years ago. Some people are probably disregarding what that guy said about AI, like many disregarded those warning about automation in manufacturing. There will be those who say, well, retrain but retrain to what ? I think in general, globalization is a good thing, as it has taken so many people out of poverty, but if you look at the way so many Western governments have left the displaced workers to rot, where do you go ? The problem with what is coming is that the new displaced will be well educated, but what can they retrain to ?

[RainCaster]

29. I agree about become a lawyer

Yes, I do tech. However, I see great value in liberal arts because STEM does not teach students how to act as a community. I have chosen my specialty based on that. (geek with social skills)

However, I would not recommend my kids get into any sort of government or education organization. Far too unstable and low paying.

[0rganism]

11. UBI is the path of the future, and the AIs will fucking require it of us

i can already see the jobs getting displaced -- and not just blue collar assembly line stuff, engineering jobs are filtering into the realm of automation, hell i'm automating some of them myself. it won't be sudden, and it won't all be one-way, but there will come a day in the not-too-distant future when the main job humans perform will be robot and AI maintenance.

[appalachiablue]

13. Impt. to know about engineers. I've heard of humans

doing work related to robots, AI and maintenance, plenty of it.

[rwsanders]

14. Can't see the image in your signature line, is it a book?

My wife and I watched a movie on the White Rose Society.
It is hard to find a "safe" way to daily protest the rise of the radical right at the workplace, so I've taken to wearing a white rose pin on my collar.
If it is a book, could you please send me the title?
Thanks.

[appalachiablue]

15. The book I haven't read but used it as a graphic.

Title, 'At the Heart of the White Rose, Letters and Diaries of Hans and Sophie Scholl,' edited. The Amazon readers comments (below) are positive with *one desiring more biographical and historical info. There are several books about The White Rose on Amazon, with reviews you can check out.~ Great that you wear the symbolic flower of the brave youths. Good luck selecting a book. Best!

(The other 4 images posted in my comment box are of Dutch WWII Resistance Underground members: Jan Bonekamp, Truus and Freddie Oversteegen (sisters) and Hannie Schatz. Last year Freddie died at age 92.
More, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/23/freddie-oversteegen-dutch-teenager-who-resisted-nazis).

Book: 'At the Heart of the White Rose, Letters and Diaries of Hans and Sophie Scholl,' by Hans Scholl, Edited. Date: ?

Check availability at Amazon.com online, ThriftBooks, or contact Barnes & Noble, etc.

*AMAZON WEBSITE BOOK INFO:
https://www.amazon.com/At-Heart-White-Rose-Letters/dp/0874860296/ref=pd_lpo_sbs_14_t_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=C2EE2NSK6PNNSTRN8YZJ

[paleotn]

21. I do some of the same in finance...

But I'm just building tools, not replacing accountants and finance people. Human thought, problem solving and creativity is not simply a computational exercise and we are light years away from replicating that.

[appalachiablue]

25. That's reassuring, TY.

[Eliot Rosewater]

27. Cons of the world will fight it to the point of violence.

But it is not only the right thing to do, it needs to be done NOW.

[cstanleytech]

16. Of course he would say that he has a vested interest in it actually happening.

[OnDoutside]

18. I can recommend this video from 1994

Sir James Goldsmith, who may well have turned out to be a Trumpian populist (but with a brain), as his son appeared to do during the last London Mayoral race. However, he set out much of what happened subsequently. The new wave coming that the author is describing in his book, may seem far fetched now, but shouldn't be so easily dismissed.

[appalachiablue]

23. From the start Sir James explains the reality of trade agreements

Last edited Mon Jan 21, 2019, 03:07 PM - Edit history (1)

like GATT and NAFTA in the 90s, the hollowing out of American jobs to cheaper labor countries and loss and damage to society overall, 'destroying ourselves.' 'You create poverty, unemployment and destabilize society.' An eye opener in 1994, and so much for the global marketplace gravy train. Poor Charlie's interjection, 'it's the same arguments of protectionism' fall short. Job reductions from AI in the next 15 years will resemble the first wave of outsourced job losses in the Midwest from which we've never recovered, as Andrew Yang said. Extremely serious times ahead, thanks for posting.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

19. yet MAGAts keep voting for oligarchy

Many of those who are most susceptible to being made obsolete by automation are voting for the regressive policies of Republicans.

[appalachiablue]

32. Self inflicted reality of chickens supporting Col. Sanders

[paleotn]

20. Snort!

Didn't we hear that 15 years ago? Oh, and we'd be flying around like the Jetsons, powered by nuclear fusion.

The deeper we delve into the human mind and try to replicate it, the more we realize how unimaginably complex it truly is. Our greatest creations in this field, be they Siri and Alexa in the public sphere or anything residing in computer labs, are crude imitations of the human mind, like prehistoric cave paintings of ancient animals. They are mere computational machines. Autonomous calculators. That is not human thought and will not replace human thought any time soon no more than computers eliminated paper from offices in the 80's. Like faster than light travel, we may never reach true AI and certainly not in the lifetime of anyone alive today. Will technology revolutionize life 40 years from now? No doubt about it, but I dare say Alexa will only be marginally less stupid than she already is.

[Locrian]

22. people mistake what AI will displace / disrupt

The biggest one will be high frequency trading etc. If AI gets a hold there - it's game over for the economy in any sense of the word.

Same with a lot of "markets".

AI in marketing etc and as a tool to prey on people.

Then there's the security / surveillance aspect of AI and who is in power and how they decide to use it.

[appalachiablue]

24. Very impt., please continue to mention this, TY.

[Locrian]

31. thanks

Right now there are a bunch of starry eyed tech wiz's extolling AI as the "next big inevitable thing".
Yes - but don't underestimate the ability of the powerful to use it to their advantage to gather even more control and $$.

[Hoyt]

28. Not sure how it will shake out long-term, but there will always be need for people to make and

maintain AI/robots. Plus, if use of AI/robots increase economic production, that might boost jobs.

Obviously, if 40% of jobs -- as we currently know them, and in the future -- are displaced, something will have to be done like guaranteed income, or something similar. Question is, will we be ready to handle it.