Employment Upswing Not Here To Stay...Richard Wolff

[snappyturtle]

Maybe Rachel Maddow should give this a listen.

[progree]

1. The payroll jobs numbers are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, Professor

Last edited Mon Dec 8, 2014, 02:11 PM - Edit history (2)

[font color = blue](By the way, for anyone reading this, if you get the "Watch this video on YouTube. Playback on other websites has been disabled by the video owner" message, the URL for the YouTube video is https://www.xoutube.com/watch?v=coEs9uuwK1k (but replace the "x" in "xoutube" with a "y"[/font]

Beginning at 2:49 they talk about seasonal hiring being a big factor in the big job numbers we saw on Friday for November (321,000 net new payroll jobs). But he never mentioned that the payroll job numbers are SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ( http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth ), as just about all of the other numbers in news reports of the jobs reports. I'm sure as an economics professor he's well aware of that, but, apparently he's more into polemics than the truth.

The seasonally UNadjusted numbers are here by the way (interesting graph, worth the click)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
The Unadjusted net new job numbers for the last 3 months, are:
September: 692,000; October: 1,051,000; and November: 497,000.

Here's more of the jobs situation over the last year and since the jobs recovery began in March 2010. Note in particular that the INFLATION-ADJUSTED earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers is actually positive, meaning that its keeping ahead of inflation.

Some key numbers from the Household Survey. See below, and see Table A-1 for the main Household Survey numbers - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Over the last year:
+1,113,000 Labor Force
+2,844,000 Employed
-1,731,000 Unemployed
+0.6% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-0.2% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-1.2% Unemployment rate
-1.7% U-6 unemployment rate
-873,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+309,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+2,531,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)


Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Jobs, as % of All Employed
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]Nov'13 Aug'14 Oct'14 Nov'14
[div style="display:inline; font-size:1.37em; font-family:monospace; white-space:pre;"]5.3% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7%


Since the Payroll Job Recovery Began -- Last 57 months thru Nov 30, 2014: 11'14 - 2'10:
(This is the period from when continuous growth of payroll employment began, thru November 30, 2014)
+2,677,000 Labor Force
+8,688,000 Employed
-6,011,000 Unemployed
+0.7% Employment-To-Population Ratio aka Employment Rate
-2.1% LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate)
-4.0% Unemployment rate
-5.6% U-6 unemployment rate
-2,054,000 Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons)
+142,000 Part-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+8,695,000 Full-Time Workers (Table A-9)
+1.65% INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers ( CES0500000031 )
......... the weekly earnings percentage is thru October 2014 because no data for Nov yet

[font color = red]On Edit:[/font]So the economy is clearly improving. That said, it still sucks in my opinion, and is still a long way from "recovered". We are coming out of a very deep hole, but still in the hole.

[DemandsRedPill]

2. new paradigm needed

Richard Wolf is that rare individual who can still see the 'forest for the trees' while being put smack in the middle of blinding smoke generated by those who would have us think there really is no forest fire.

And he has no apologies for his ideas that are not all that common but are in fact common sense.

He reminds me of an author, James Howard Kunstler, who writes truly interesting and even entertaining books on the many delusions both the left and right live under.

Both Kunstler and Wolf, unlike most who have a complaint about most everything, yet have not a clue as to any solutions that have even a slim chance of success, are not in this group

It would do anyone some good to read and listen to both of these gentleman with an open mind and then put some of their ideas to practice.

Perhaps we would not see so many problems continuing in spite of all the sound and fury of our complaints that just go unheard.

[SmittynMo]

3. This guy is spot on

I fit in the category of the unemployed, now for over a year. The problem is age. I just turned 60. What a bummer it has been. At this point and from what I've experienced to date, (including age discrimination), I don't expect to find a job. I look daily, and may have to wait it out until 62 to retire. Until then, its going to be very tough. Thank God for the ACA and my small nest egg. The problem was that nest egg was suppose to be used for retirement, not survival.

I never thought I would see this kind of thing in my lifetime. And I'm not alone. There are millions of people just like me, if not worse. If I were 50 right now, the outcome would have been disastrous for me personally. Age discrimination starts between 45-50 these days. How many people out there between 45-65, think finding a job would be easy to obtain, with minimal down time, if they lost their job today?

My advice. Be cautious. Spend wisely. The economy may look fairly good, but it's still in the tank.

[DemandsRedPill]

4. mentioned a new paradigm

You are the guys who I started my workers CO-OP for

Nice paying jobs of average $25/hr but no one but the members own the company

All share equally in profits

BTW we do a wide variety of engineering and design work for clients
Lots of renewable energy projects and alternative agriculture such as permaculture and aquaponics
We also build tiny homes for single retired folks and others and we are working on developing an intentional community made up of many tiny homes in one locale with lots of common area and facilities

Also we use no fossil fuels at all as all homes are completely off the grid using solar and bio diesel

No propane
No sewers

All self contained with all the amenities expected

And we can up and move them at will with a 1/2ton pickup as they are designed like an aircraft using monocuque- technics for light weight,high strength and quick low cost build

Our ultimate objective is to supply close to %100 of the food also

No ageism here as we accept all ages

That scenario is fast becoming the only realistic option of lifestyle for many

Especially folks such as yourself who don't want to just burn through what savings they have to support the Oligarc's and then just die.

[jtuck004]

5. It's not good and it is getting worse. n/t