5 Ways to Tell If Conspiracy Theories Are True

[WhoIsNumberNone]

Conspiracy theories are abundant, especially on the Internet. Here are six tests for figuring out if conspiracy theories are actually true, like Occam's Razor, Falsifiability, and more. Find out if some of the most popular conspiracy theories can stand up to the test!

Which conspiracy theory do you hear the most? Does it pass these tests, or is it false? Let us know in the comments!

Find out more here: http://www.realclearscience.com/lists/6_tests_for_conspiracy_theories/falsifiability.html

[WhoIsNumberNone]

1. #6

Is the conspiracy theory being expounded by Republicans?

[frazzled]

2. Conspiracy theories are by definition not true

They wouldn't be conspiracy theories if they were true: they'd be called facts.

[starroute]

3. That's like saying that scientific theories are by definition not true

Theories are not facts. Theories are attempts to provide an explanatory context for facts.

Some conspiracy theories may represent an attempt to pull together too many things that aren't part of a common pattern. Some may represent an over-ambitious to impose order on random events. But there are others that may provide a complete accurate account of things that someone would rather keep secret.

As with scientific theories, the test of conspiracy theories is whether they are supported or contradicted by new information that was not available when the theory was formulated. A weaker but still useful test is whether somebody is refusing to release, say, fifty year old documents that might easily disprove any suspicions of a conspiracy if they were released and supported the conventional account.

This isn't rocket science. It's mostly simple logic. It's only right-wing nutjobs who have given conspiracy theories a bad name.

[frazzled]

10. Yes, theories are NOT facts

Which is why they are never "true" or "false." They can explain facts (hopefully in the most elegant way possible), but they are not factual or nonfactual.

Furthermore, conspiracy theories are not theories in the way scientific theories are theories. Conspiracy theories are called "conspiracies" because they can almost never be falsified in the eyes of their makers. And that makes them "false" in the vernacular sense of that term.

This whole thread is stupid, because the article in the OP is trying to deal with truth values for that are not subject to truth values.

[starroute]

11. You're playing semantic games with the term "conspiracy theory"

Watergate was a real conspiracy. The only question was whether Nixon and his immediate aides were behind it. (They did get involved in the cover-up, which made the first point moot, but I don't believe it was ever resolved.)

Iran-Contra was a real conspiracy. The question was whether Reagan was as out of the loop as he claimed.

Bridgegate was a real conspiracy. The only question is whether Christie authorized it in advance.

"Conspiracy" is not a word that means "unfalsifiable." It literally means "breathing together" -- which is to say, a bunch of people in a back room somewhere plotting in secret.

The semantic games involve pointing to the most ludicrous conspiracy theories -- such as Birtherism -- to prove that all conspiracy theories are loony. And then using that label to tar far more reasonable suggestions of dirty dealings behind the scenes as conspiracy theories and thus unworthy of consideration.

[frazzled]

14. it's the "theory" part

A conspiracy is a conspiracy. A conspiracy theory is not a conspiracy: it's a theory about a possible conspiracy. I'm not playing semantics at all.

[DeSwiss]

15. Theories ARE THEORIES, not FACTS.

- Once you start calling a theory a fact then it becomes a belief just like religion.

[JDPriestly]

17. What does the word "theory" mean?

A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.

The branch of a science or art consisting of its explanatory statements, accepted principles, and methods of analysis, as opposed to practice.

a fine musician who had never studied theory.

A set of theorems that constitute a systematic view of a branch of mathematics.

Abstract reasoning; speculation.

a decision based on experience rather than theory.

A belief or principle that guides action or assists comprehension or judgment.

staked out the house on the theory that criminals usually return to the scene of the crime.

An assumption based on limited information or knowledge; a conjecture.

https://dictionary.search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=AwrSbnssc4NUfogAeBBXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTBsOXB2YTRjBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2dxMQR2dGlkAw--?p=theory&.sep=

The factual basis of a theory determines whether it is fact or mere speculation.

Einstein's theory is a theory, but that theory led to the development of the atomic bomb and nuclear energy among other things. The extent to which a theory should or can be believed and not just treated as speculation depends upon a) whether putting it into practice or testing it suggests with each practice or test that it is indeed based on solid facts and b) whether it really fully explains the facts it is intended to explain.

The theory that the world is flat has been proven wrong. We know that the world is round. The theory of the existence of an all powerful, all knowing God is widely recognized by many people as true, but it has not been proven in the way that the theory that the world is a sphere has been proven.

People tend to believe in God because they can't explain the universe and what they sense is the meaning of the world without the theory that God exists.

Many people criticize the "theory" of evolution on the ground that it is "just a theory." The evidence supporting the theory of evolution is mounting steadily. So that is a "theory" in the process of becoming an established fact.

I think there is a spectrum of fact and theory. Some theories are proved to be false and discarded. We tend to forget them.

Just an interesting topic and I felt like writing about it. Theory and fact fascinate me.

I love the study of evidence. What is evidence? What is not evidence? It is a basic question in my life. Sorry if I am boring you.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

6. All right. Who sent you?

[GreatGazoo]

12. wrong - a theory can be either supported or disproven by facts

but theories, such as a theory of relativity, are a tool for predicting and analyzing events and outcomes.

If a theory cannot accommodate facts then the theory must be reworked or abandoned.

[zeemike]

4. There is only one thing that will prove something true.

And that is facts....Occam's Razor is not a fact...and in fact if applied to something like 911 shows that the most assumptions are made by those who say that fires brought down 3 buildings in the same day...masive assumptions must be made to believe that.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

5. These guys missed the memo that oil companies are rolling in cash.

[OnyxCollie]

18. And Halliburton was revived from the ashes

after their asbestos lawsuit (Bell v Dresser Industries, Inc.), with no-bid contracts which they should not have been allowed to receive.

To find a conspiracy it is not only necessary to ask who benefits, but how things had to operate in an irrational matter to allow the benefits to be received.

These people are prime examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

19. They're also the types to stand there in slack jawed amazement when something is proven to be true.

[JDPriestly]

7. A couple of books recount real conspiracies carried out by large groups of people.

One is Ike's Spies which tells the story of Eisenhower's and Kermit Roosevelt's conspiracy that organized a successful coup against Mossadegh in Iran as well as the coup in Guatemala that benefited United Fruit.

A second is Endless Enemies by Jonathan Kwitny former reporter for the Wall Street Journal. That book reports on a number of successful conspiracies in various countries. Those of us who remember the Viet Nam War remember the story of Diem.

Coups to occur. Then there is the Pinochet takeover in Chile. I don't know whether we know to this day the names of all the people involved in that conspiracy.

That a lot of people would have to be involved simply does not exclude the possibility of a conspiracy. Not when the stakes are high, a well disciplined organization or even small team of leaders are involved and the money to fund the conspiracy is there.

I really don't understand the theories about 9/11 although I can see some very powerful people, some strange coincidences, etc. -- that is some of the typical elements of successful conspiracies by high-level individuals or organizations.

There is another post on DU tonight about the coup in Egypt -- another top-level conspiracy.

I don't have a theory about who was responsible for the assassination of Kennedy, but I have never been satisfied with the explanations and the lone assassin theory officially endorsed by our government. Most of the assassins of our presidents have shot their victims close up and personally. That a lone gunman would think up a scheme to try to shoot Kennedy from as far away as the Texas Book Depository is rather unique in the history of lone gunmen who shoot presidents. There may be another similar case, but I can't think of it. The killing of Kennedy took a certain kind of thoughtful, cunning organization and targeting that crazed killers don't often demonstrate. Most crazed killers of presidents wanted the kind of recognition that being seen killing brought them. Even Lincoln's assassin placed himself intentionally in the public eye and faced Lincoln in a fairly close-range fashion -- in a crowded theater. Maybe these assassins want to get caught and be "famous" for what they have done.

There have been so many conspiracies for regime change at various times in history that it isn't even funny. The attempt on Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo that set off WWI was done by one of some conspirators.

Hitler had some conspiracies that helped him gain power -- the Beerhall Putsch is talked about a lot. And some of his generals conspired unsuccessfully to try to kill him.

Who would gain from the conspiracy is a good thing to ask. The whole thing about hiding information about visitors from outer space looks very doubtful when you ask that question.

Interesting discussion. I wish it was so simple.

[baldguy]

8. Remember #1, #3 & #5 whenever anyone says both parties are the same

Or that major Democratic Party figures aren't "real" Democrats.

[RufusTFirefly]

9. Conspiracies happen in other countries, but never in the U.S.

That's because we're special.

[Ernest Partridge]

13. Excellent! An informed analysis.

Occam's Razor, Cui Bono (who benefits?), Falsifiablility. Right on the mark.

Now here's another marker for a conspiracy theory: ad hoc hypotheses.

An ad hoc hypothesis is an instantly concocted fact claim, with no supporting evidence, that serves only to prop up a conspiracy theory.

Ad hoc-ery abounds with 9/11. E.g., Why did the planes fly into the very place where the charges were set?
Ad hoc "explanation:" There were no planes, they were holograms devised to deceive the public?
What about the airliner debris on the Pentagon Lawn. Ad hoc: They were put there after the missile hit to (again) deceive the public.

What about Barack Obama's birth certificate? Ad hoc: Obviously a forgery. (Supporting evidence? None.)

And now an indicator of solid scholarship and science: peer review. Not much of that with conspiracy theories.

Good comments below about "theory v. facts." Bottom line: scientists use the word "theory" very differently that ordinary folks. Ordinary use of theory is what scientists call "hypothesis."

Re: Theory, See: "Creationism" and the Devolution of the Intellect"
About the reliability of science, see: "Is Science Just Another Dogma?"

Ernest Partridge
The Online Gadfly
(Retired Philosophy Prof.)

[DeSwiss]

16. Navel gazing.

''Everybody who has ever worked for a corporation knows that corporations conspire all the time. Politicians conspire all the time, pot-dealers conspire not to get caught by the narcs, the world is full of conspiracies. Conspiracy is natural primate behavior.''

~Robert Anton Wilson