No Matter What Happens In The East, Ukraine Is Going To Default
Much attention is understandably being paid to Russias provocative actions in Eastern Ukraine, where Moscow-linked separatists have occupied government buildings and announced the creation of independent peoples republics. While there wasnt much enthusiasm for the Euromaidan in Kharkov, Lugansk, and Donetsk it seems fairly obvious that the violent unrest of the past several weeks is the deliberate creation of Moscow, which is doing its very best to stir up trouble both to weaken the new government in Kiev and to give itself a pretext for military intervention should it be deemed necessary.
Despite some bold proclamations by American intelligence officials, who appear to have already forgotten how badly they misread Russias intentions in Crimea, no one really knows whats going to happen in Eastern Ukraine. At this point it unfortunately would not shock me if the Russians sent in troops (if youre still shocked by anything the Russians do you havent been paying attention) but theres still a real possibility that things dont devolve into an all-out war.
But even if the situation in Eastern Ukraine doesnt entirely spin out of control, the countrys economy has already unraveled to the point that a substantial default is now essentially unavoidable. Moody's recently downgraded Ukraines sovereign debt from extremely speculative to default imminent with little prospect for recovery. Moodys based its decision not just on the escalating political crisis, but on Ukraines rapidly dwindling foreign currency reserves, its exploding level of debt (from 40% of GDP at the end of 2013 to a projected level of 60% at the end of 2014), and full-year 2014 economic growth that is optimistically forecast to be somewhere between -3 and -4%. Although the new government in Kiev isnt to blame for the economic carnage now transpiring, the fact that Yanukovych and his cronies were responsible doesnt do anything to change the reality of the situation: whether we like it or not, Ukraine is in economic free fall.
Given everything thats going wrong with Ukraines economy, theres very little chance that the IMF bailout will prove large enough to allow the country to pay all of its bills. And while its fair to say that Ukraine didnt have any other options on the table, the new government obviously wasnt going to accept Russias aid package, as Alec Luhn notes at The Nation the IMF conditions for Ukraine wont include any debt relief and wont impose any haircuts on the countrys creditors. Even with substantial international assistance, Ukraine is going to owe a lot of money to a lot of different people and it isnt going to have the means necessary to pay this money back.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/04/09/no-matter-what-happens-in-the-east-ukraine-is-going-to-default/
CFLDem
(2,083 posts)By being sold to the highest bidder?
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)President Vladimir Putin told his government to draw up a plan to replace Ukrainian imports and said Russia cant subsidize its neighbor forever, ramping up pressure as the government in Kiev battles separatists.
Putin today urged talks before possibly switching Ukraine to advance payments for natural gas, while Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said it owes Russia $16.6 billion in energy debts. Ukraines government, which is trying to accelerate approval for an international bailout, said today it may use force to remove pro-Russian activists from official buildings in the east.
Russia continues to provide economic support and subsidize Ukraines economy with hundreds of millions and billions of dollars, Putin told a cabinet meeting outside Moscow. This situation, of course, cant go on forever.
>
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told todays cabinet meeting that Ukraine is seeking a second $3 billion loan tranche under a halted bailout program agreed on in December before the new administration in Kiev came to power.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-09/putin-threatens-ukrainian-imports-as-economic-pressure-mounts.html