The Inevitable Republican Collapse That Will End the Shutdown

[Tx4obama]

The Inevitable Republican Collapse That Will End the Shutdown
The grim, angry, loopy, and predetermined conclusion to Washington's crisis

Setting aside the hourly thrust and parry between Democrats and Republicans, here’s how the shutdown is likely to end: Senate Majority Harry Reid is going to strike a deal with his Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell at some point in the next few days. The deal will reopen the government for a medium length of time—possibly till January 15, when the next round of sequester cuts kick in—giving the two sides time to replace the sequester with something more appealing. The deal will also raise the debt ceiling—maybe for as little as a few months, maybe until after the 2014 election. Reid will give up almost no concessions in return for any of this, with the exception of one or two symbolic items, and he’ll probably get some higher-than-sequester level of government funding (a top Democratic priority) for a month or two starting later this year. Pretty much every Democrat in the Senate will vote for the deal, along with at least five and maybe as many as 20 Republicans.

As the minutes tick away toward default this Thursday, the Reid-McConnell arrangement will be the only deal in town. With no alternative to avoiding a default, House Speaker John Boehner will add some small face-saving alteration and bring it to the floor, where it will pass with several dozen Republican votes and a large majority of Democrats. In doing so, Boehner will reprise the same formula he deployed in resolving last year’s fiscal cliff fight. I know this because it’s how the GOP has gotten out of pretty much every self-inflicted PR disaster of the Obama era, and it’s where the best reporting available suggests we’re headed today.

Of course, I could be wrong on the details. If Reid plays his hand especially well, he may do a bit better—erasing more of the sequester now rather than deferring that task till later. If McConnell plays his hand especially well, he may get some slightly bigger concessions, like a delay or repeal of the tax on medical devices that was enacted under Obamacare. But those are the basic contours of what a deal will look like, and they’re notable for what they almost certainly won’t include: anything that has more than a trivial effect on Obamacare, any cuts to entitlements as the price of reopening the government or raising the debt ceiling (though Democrats may give a bit on entitlements in exchange for ending the sequester and some new revenue). Which is to say, the deal will include none the key demands the Republicans were hoping to achieve by shutting down the government.

-snip-

Full article here: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115171/shutdown-2013-deal-will-end-it

A Good Read

[Laelth]

1. Key point from the essay:

On policy, the Republicans will end up either about where they were when they started this fight, or worse off. Politically, they’ll be in a far weaker place, having seen their public support collapse. Along both dimensions, they are faring worse than they did even in 1995-6, when Bill Clinton accepted some of their key demands, and when their approval ratings didn’t sink as low as the latest polls suggest they’re sinking now.

I had a smug, right-wing friend tell me that Obama and the Democrats would not fare well through this shut-down. He said, "This ain't 1995, and Obama is no Billy Jeff." Indeed. Obama is better, and the results for Republicans, this time, will be even worse.

Republicans have never been good at predicting the future. If they were, they wouldn't be Republicans.

-Laelth

[Merlot]

13. "Republicans have never been good at predicting the future."

See last presidential election eve for proof.

In 1995 most people were still getting their news from network TV, which explains why repubs are fairing worse this time. Now we have access to more information.

[MBS]

2. good article, thanks

gives me a little hope to face the day.

[Myrina]

3. Sadly, I think we're still going to end up with more domestic cuts and Chained CPI

.... a little step to the left, and then a jump to the r-iiii-ight ...

[caseymoz]

4. Sadly, that presumes the GOPers are going to get rational.

Look at the mob at the war memorial this weekend. Yeah, they're rational.

You might say that those aren't a representative sample of the entire GOP. I'd say they're not a fair representation only in that they're shameless. They're the ones who don't even hide their racism, sexism, hatred and idiocy.

I really think the GOP would let the world burn rather than admit the bankruptcy of their ideology. Right now, they have power. If they back down, all they have to look forward to is defeat in 2014. An intelligent human being with a heart would take the right path. So far the two reliable threads of modern Republicanism have been stupidity and heartlessness.

The GOP might be terminal and rotten, but there's also a glaring flaw in the design of our government when something like this can happen. A minority should not be able to "go on strike" by shutting down basic functions of government. In most countries, this would be the government resigning, and the basic functions would be carried out while a new election is called. In the US, we have to wait a whole other year with these clowns office, while we languish falling into third-world status.

The GOP might die along the way, but that flaw is still there. And whoever replaces the Repubs is going to be taking notes on how to exploit it better. I still think Repubs would be winning on this if they had an ad campaign ready when the government shut down to make sure the Dems got blamed. It seems they trusted that to break their way and trusted that the ACA would be unpopular. That was stupidity.

[starroute]

5. I worry more about the Tea Party going all stabbed-in-the-back

They're loony now -- but if they feel sold out by the GOP leadership, they could get actively dangerous. Violence, "second amendment remedies," a willingness of the growing number of hate groups to take overt action, attacks on political candidates during next year's elections, even outright terrorism.

There's a whole bunch of nasty that could be in the pipeline if the loony right decides it has to take matters into its own hands. I just hope our federal and state governments are prepared for it.

[truebluegreen]

7. If they resort to violence, they lose.

The only people happy will be their own base, and not all of them.

[caseymoz]

9. Actually, I don't fear that much from them.

Just try to picture Sarah Palin leading an insurgency and you get some idea why that will be more comical than tragic.

They've spurned intelligence so much they're dumb. It's not like they can learn much from actual revolutionaries like Che Guevara, because they're too ideologically opposed to respect anything from him. They're ignorant of history, except maybe (as the stereotype goes) the Civil War. Anything else they know is from Hollywood or Fox News.

True, they can do some harm, but they'll get caught. Many will get caught before they spring anything.

I know I'm stereotyping a little, but the fact that Conservatism is falling apart tells you it's close to the truth now. Just look at the last Republican presidential field, and you'll know that modern Conservatism can't produce good leaders. An ideology that lauds selfishness, ignorance and heartlessness can't produce respectable leadership.

[gopiscrap]

16. I've been concerned about that also

[steelhead77]

6. I think this author is living in dreamland

The way I see this ending is Obama is going to do something unilateral, although well within the law and his duties as president, then the right will spend the next three years trying to impeach the "tyrant" for trying to do his job.

[truebluegreen]

8. I don't think they will "try" and I think it will take 3 weeks, not three years.

Of course, they will lose because there is no possible way they can muster a 2/3 vote in the Senate to convict.

And as POed as the country is right now about the shutdown and the debt ceiling, how do you think they will react to impeachment?

I'm kinda hoping they try it: it will keep them busy and unable to cause more grief before they get booted out in 2014. An outbreak of violence against the government will quicken their demise. You know our side doesn't vote as much in off-year elections; these displays of radicalism can provide the motivation.

[tclambert]

10. Obama should have his staff working on a wish list the Republicans must give him

at this point. He should insist that Boehner make concessions. If it doesn't make him cry, don't accept the deal.

[nikto]

11. We'd better not hurt the GOP's feelings...

or they will be mad.

[calimary]

12. Fuck 'em.

I'd say "Fuck 'em in the heart" - if they had one. But that assumes quite a lot and giving them way too much benefit of the doubt.

On second thought - how many republi-CONS are we talking about? There actually MAY be one heart in there among them, somewhere.

[blkmusclmachine]

14. Cruz Could Force Default All By Himself:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-14/ted-cruz-could-force-a-debt-default-all-by-himself

[gopiscrap]

15. I hope the inevitable collapse ends not just the shut down but

the repuke party itself!

[warrenswil]

17. It could be even worse!

This is an excellent read and just what we predicted a couple of days before it ran, on Oct. 11.
But there is one serious omission. The consequences for the GOP could be even worse.
We analyzed this in
Obamacare success may split the Republican Party.
It would not be the first time. Remember Ross Perot? He handed Poppy Bush his walking papers in 1992 and gave the election to Bill Clinton.
Now, who could wish for a better outcome?
In the (K)now