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Nuclear Power’s Renaissance in Reverse - by Mycle Schneider and Antony Froggatt
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-global-decline-of-nuclear-energy-by-mycle-schneider-and-antony-froggatt
Nuclear Power’s Renaissance in Reverse
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt
05 September 2013
PARIS – Last June, Yukiya Amano, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), declared that “nuclear power will make a significant and growing contribution to sustainable development in the coming decades.” But, as this year’s World Nuclear Industry Status Report highlights, recent trends paint a very different picture.
<snip>
The nuclear-energy industry’s decline began decades ago. But, since the March 2011 triple-meltdown at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi plant, the pace of the decline has accelerated significantly. Indeed, in 2012, annual nuclear generation worldwide dropped by an unprecedented 7%, exceeding the previous year’s record-breaking drop of 4% and bringing total annual nuclear-power generation to 12% below its historic maximum, achieved in 2006.
Although Japan accounts for three-quarters of this decline, with only two of the 50 units that are officially in operation in Japan actually producing power, 16 other countries, including the world’s top five nuclear generators, also decreased their output. As a result, nuclear power’s share of global electricity generation dropped to around 10% in 2012, compared to its 1993 peak of 17%. Only the Czech Republic reached its historic maximum nuclear share last year.
<snip>
By contrast, new renewable technologies are gaining traction, illustrating a fundamental shift in international energy policy and investment strategies. Last year, China, Germany, Japan, and India generated more power from renewables than from nuclear for the first time. In China and India, wind alone outpaced nuclear.
Since 2000, global onshore wind-power generation has averaged 27% annual growth, while the growth rate for solar photovoltaics has been a staggering 42%. Last year, an additional 45 GW of wind and 32 GW of solar were installed worldwide, compared to a net addition of 1.2 GW of nuclear.
<snip>
The IAEA’s optimistic rhetoric cannot obscure fundamental arithmetic: skyrocketing maintenance expenses and, in many cases, post-Fukushima upgrade costs, together with the impossibility of building competitive new capacity without massive government subsidies, are devastating the nuclear industry. As the economist Mark Cooper has put it, nuclear power is actually undergoing a “renaissance in reverse.”
Nuclear Power’s Renaissance in Reverse
Mycle Schneider, Antony Froggatt
05 September 2013
PARIS – Last June, Yukiya Amano, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), declared that “nuclear power will make a significant and growing contribution to sustainable development in the coming decades.” But, as this year’s World Nuclear Industry Status Report highlights, recent trends paint a very different picture.
<snip>
The nuclear-energy industry’s decline began decades ago. But, since the March 2011 triple-meltdown at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi plant, the pace of the decline has accelerated significantly. Indeed, in 2012, annual nuclear generation worldwide dropped by an unprecedented 7%, exceeding the previous year’s record-breaking drop of 4% and bringing total annual nuclear-power generation to 12% below its historic maximum, achieved in 2006.
Although Japan accounts for three-quarters of this decline, with only two of the 50 units that are officially in operation in Japan actually producing power, 16 other countries, including the world’s top five nuclear generators, also decreased their output. As a result, nuclear power’s share of global electricity generation dropped to around 10% in 2012, compared to its 1993 peak of 17%. Only the Czech Republic reached its historic maximum nuclear share last year.
<snip>
By contrast, new renewable technologies are gaining traction, illustrating a fundamental shift in international energy policy and investment strategies. Last year, China, Germany, Japan, and India generated more power from renewables than from nuclear for the first time. In China and India, wind alone outpaced nuclear.
Since 2000, global onshore wind-power generation has averaged 27% annual growth, while the growth rate for solar photovoltaics has been a staggering 42%. Last year, an additional 45 GW of wind and 32 GW of solar were installed worldwide, compared to a net addition of 1.2 GW of nuclear.
<snip>
The IAEA’s optimistic rhetoric cannot obscure fundamental arithmetic: skyrocketing maintenance expenses and, in many cases, post-Fukushima upgrade costs, together with the impossibility of building competitive new capacity without massive government subsidies, are devastating the nuclear industry. As the economist Mark Cooper has put it, nuclear power is actually undergoing a “renaissance in reverse.”
