Hope
This article does a great job of covering some structural problems Republicans face, even in spite of their gerrymandering. Key points:
Today an estimated 84 percent of Americans live in cities, up from an estimated 79 percent only a decade ago. Our nations metropolises produce 85 percent of U.S. exports and virtually all new patents, contain the nations cultural, educational and healthcare institutions, and are home to 89 percent of working-age people with post-secondary degrees. For the young, born in the city or beyond, for immigrants, for minorities, for the educated, urban areas are where opportunity is and will be found.
Rural America is emptying out. Those who live there, for better or for worse, are the old, the less educated, and the long-term under- and unemployed. Whereas metropolitan areas experienced growth of more than 12 percent over the last decade, the rural population barely grew. This trend will continue, with the rural population suffering even greater attrition as older residents die and younger residents leave to find the education and jobs they need to sustain themselves in a global economy. And that means an ever growing urban, progressive vote that will become unbeatable in statewide and national elections that are decided by popular vote or todays Electoral College.
http://inthesetimes.com/article/14901/all_ye_progressives_take_heart/
As painful as it is to watch the stagnation in Washington, it still looks like a bunch of bigoted old folks hanging on the rope at the edge of the dark abyss of history. The only question is, how much damage can they do before their gone?
SharonAnn
(13,772 posts)I. E. Wyoming has the same number of senators as California does. That won't change. Wyoming will have an even more outsized role in the Senate than it does now. Same for other rural states.
GitRDun
(1,846 posts)It may take a few cycles, but I think their can be hope in the Senate as well.
This link has Census data from 2000 and 2010:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
The top ten fastest growing states in terms of population from 2000 to 2010 are:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population
Nevada (1D, 1R) 4 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 47% of states total.
Arizona (2 Republicans) 10 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 59% of states total.
Utah (2 Republicans) 4 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 19% of states total.
Idaho (2 Republicans) 1 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 13% of states total.
Texas (2 Republicans) 31 cities in top 285 cities by population
North Carolina (1D, 1R) 9 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 26% of states total.
Georgia (2 Republicans) 5 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 11% of states total.
Florida (1D, 1R) 19 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 21% of states total.
Colorado (2 Democrats) 8 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 40% of states total.
South Carolina (2 Republicans) 2 cities in top 285 cities by population making up 5% of states total.
I think Idaho and Utah are off the table. They are decidedly rural. Further, the department of commerce study projects them as <25% minority by 2025.
Texas is projected to be majority minority by 2025 and urban...that's 2 possibles.
25% to 50% minority states by 2025 are SC, GA, FL, NC, CO, AZ, & NV. Of these, IMO
South Carolina & Georgia are too rural. The other five states have five Republican Senators.
So by my count there are 7 Senate seat opportunities in the 10 fastest growing states. It won't be a cakewalk to get there, but I do think over time we will.
Link to Dept of Commerce Study below:
http://faculty.washington.edu/mbarreto/courses/minoritypopulation2050.pdf