5 Theories Why Romney Won’t Release His Tax Records (Invictus, the Big Picture)

[swag]

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/romney-tax-records/#more-83775

1) 0% Tax Rates: The released tax documents show a very low tax rate, and Romney has said he never paid less than a 13% rate over the past 10 years. However, its not inconceivable that through a combination of aggressive tax planning, use of Trusts, earned income carry forwards and use of tax havens like Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Cayman Islands and Bermuda, Romney may have paid no taxes whatsoever in 2009 and years prior. His advisors may have correctly surmised this would be fatal to his Presidential aspirations.
. . .

2) Voter Fraud: The Guardian and others came up with an even simpler theory: That Romney has voted in a state in which he was not technically a resident (i.e. voting in Massachusetts when he was actually a resident of California).

. . .

3) Broken Tax Laws: Personally, I assign this a very low to moderate probability. However, without releasing his returns, Romney leaves himself open to speculation that he may perhaps have crossed a line and submitted returns that are somehow numerically fraudulent and/or otherwise illegal (separate and apart from the aforementioned address issue).

. . .

4) Much Wealthier Than Previously Reported: Romney’s wealth has been guesstimated at around $250 million. Returns from which we might infer that his wealth is significantly greater – not that $250 million isn’t a huge number – might be somewhat off-putting to the electorate, particularly in light of Romney’s recent well-publicized 47% gaffe (which actually was not a gaffe at all, but a core belief among some conservatives).

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5) Did Romney Make a “Bet Against America”?: Some facts in support of this theory:

[unblock]

1. add to that participation in the tax amnesty program.

arguably falls under 3), but wasn't explicitly mentioned.



bottom line is that, whatever the truth is, rmoney KNOWS it's even worse than all the crap he's getting from hiding the truth.

[KansDem]

2. Time to get the 1040s!

[gcomeau]

3. It's. The. Amnesty.

-Won't release before 2010 when amnesty was 2009.
-Gave McCain's people up to 2008 with no apparent concerns.
-Only missing document from 2010 returns? FBAR disclosures on his foreign accounts.
-Had an account in UBS (the bank the IRS went after) that he closed in 2010 because his accountant said it "served no apparent purpose" (well yeah, NOW it didn't. Pretty sure he didn't open it just for giggles in the first place though))


Etc...

[BlueStreak]

4. It seems that I can't agree with a single word in that article

Let's review:

1) 0% Tax Rates:

He has subsequently said that he has tax obligations of at least 14%. This is out.

2) Voter Fraud:

No. I seriously doubt that. He did that a decade earlier in his race for Governor and got away with it. Besides, tax records do not establish residency.

3) Broken Tax Laws: The gentleman says "Personally, I assign this a very low to moderate probability."

On what basis would anybody conclude this guy has any problem whatsoever with tax fraud? We know for certain that Romney oversaw Marriott's illegal use of "Son of Boss" transactions while the freaking chair of the audit committee. Bain's entire existence is about shady tax structures. Bain is the Enron of the vulture capital world.

4) Much Wealthier Than Previously Reported:

And Romney would resist bragging about that why? The only plausible explanation I have heard is that this might show he under-tithed to the Mormon church. but given how much money he gave them, I just don't see that being a huge deal.

5) Did Romney Make a “Bet Against America”?:

We already know he made lots of bets against America. We know he has kept much of his money offshore and we know he has invested in companies that specialize in destroying American jobs. It is hard to imagine there is something substantially worse in his 2009 return in this regard.

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Basically this article in wrong on all counts, IMHO. What (I think) we agree on is that the 2009 return is toxic to the degree that it would be completely devastating to Romney's campaign and/or a real liability to any future business transactions he wants to do.

I don't believe the returns would reveal any tax evasion secrets he doesn't want other vulture companies to learn about. I think they all know the whole play book. That leaves me with only 3 theories that make any sense:

a) The 2009 return reveals partnerships with undesirables, such as the mob.

b) The 2009 return reveals criminal activity, such as the UBS amnesty program or major IRS audit failures.

c) The 2009 return reveals he seriously screwed his partners. Bain was all about using other people's money. It could be that if "certain people" saw just how much money Romney made on some of the deals, they would be very unhappy.

[benddem]

5. Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?

I'm sure he is much better off than he was 4 years ago...since he's made 40 million + in the last two years. He'd lose that argument hands down.