Robert Reich: Four Reasons Why Romney Might Still Win

[swag]

http://robertreich.org/#.UFqnEcWk3x0.twitter

1. Between now and Election Day come two jobs reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – October 5 and November 2. If they’re as bad as the last report, showing only 96,000 jobs added in August (125,000 are needed just to keep up with population growth) and the lowest percentage of employed adults since 1981, Romney’s claim the economy is off track becomes more credible, and Obama’s that it’s on the mend harder to defend.

. . .

2. Also between now and Election Day are three presidential debates, starting October 3. It’s commonly thought Obama will win them handily but that expectation may be very wrong – and could work against him. Yes, Romney is an automaton — but when the dials are set properly he can give a good imitation of a human engaged in sharp debate. He did well in the Republican primary debates.

Obama, by contrast, can come off slow and ponderous. Recall how he stuttered and stumbled during the 2008 Democratic primary debates. And he hasn’t been in a real-live debate for four years; Romney recently emerged from almost a year of them.

. . .

3. During the next 7 final weeks of the campaign, the anti-Obama forces will be spending a gigantic amount of money. Not just the Romney campaign and Romney’s super PACs, but other super PACS aligned with Romney, billionaires spending their own fortunes, and non-profit “social welfare” organizations like the Chamber of Commerce, Karl Rove’s “Crossroads,” and various Koch-br0thers political fronts – all will dump hundreds of millions on TV and radio spots, get-out-the-vote drives, and phone banks, particularly in swing states. It’s an easy bet they’ll far outspend Obama and his allies. I’ve heard two-to-one.

4. As they’ve displayed before, the Republican Party will do whatever it can to win — even if it means disenfranchising certain voters. To date, 11 states have enacted voter identification laws, all designed by Republican legislatures and governors to dampen Democratic turnout. The GOP is also encouraging what can only be termed “voter vigilante” groups to “monitor polling stations to prevent fraud” – which means intimidating minorities who have every right to vote. We can’t know at this point how successful these efforts may be but it’s a dangerous wildcard.

. . . more

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I stopped reading after his first point...

Robert Reich is a smart guy, but he's pushing a narrative that is just absolutely not panning out. If bad jobs reports were going to sink Obama, they would have sunk him long ago. We've had far worse jobs reports this year than what we saw last month. So, that point doesn't fly. In fact, Obama's approval and margin over Romney has reached some of its highest points of the election on the backs of two bad jobs reports (May's and August's). So, sorry, Robert, but don't push a narrative that doesn't fly. Start out with something that isn't half-assed.

You see, I don't like these articles. I get 'em. You've got to come up with something to get the eyeballs, but let's be honest - it's lazy reporting. Yeah, we know Romney could still win ... but give us more than just typical BS we've been hearing since last year. Robert is smart, as I said, but this article is absolutely lazy and beneath him. It breaks no new ground and doesn't tell us anything we don't already know.

[Cha]

2. You didn't miss anything..

all it did was piss me off at Reich instead of being a cautionary tale.

I know there's a chance romney can still win but RR went all disgusting negative..especially the part about the debates.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Figured it would be a 'let's dispirit the base in the form of a cautionary tale!' article...

Yes, Romney could win. No, he's not winning and yes, the odds are stacked against him. We don't need to be told how bad the economy is and how it could sink Obama or that Romney is going to do this or how they're going to steal it from beneath us - all that does is dispirit the base. Sure, don't get overconfident, but also don't go so negative that your own base sees it as useless to vote for Obama.

Liberals can be so damn depressing that it actually hurts rather than helps. We need to stay motivated, but harsh, negative rhetoric motivates no one.

"Obama could lose because the September jobs report might suck!" is not a rallying cry to get us to the polls.

[Cha]

6. YEP! And,

Obama hasn't debated lately and romney was good in the primaries. Oh really. Against a bunch of other maggots.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Romney was good in an 8-man debate...

Or however men there were in those debates.

It's an entirely different ballgame when you're debating one-on-one.

[silvershadow]

8. That's okay, if it motivates everyone to vote...the stakes could not be higher. This

is pretty much for all the marbles. Let's leave the R's licking their wounds and counting their casualties.

[AverageJoe90]

4. I have to agree for the most part.

Bob Reich is a darn smart guy, and pretty honest, too, but I don't think he's hitting the ball with this one either.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Thanks.

Instead of telling us why Romney might win, how about telling us to get out and gain more supporters for Obama? Map out a way to keep us motivated, remind us the election isn't done, but don't depress us. Keep our spirits high. Tell us that we need to work like we're 10 points down, but then remind us that there is a light at the end of the tunnel and if we work harder and stronger for Obama, we'll reach it.

Robert Reich would not make a good head coach or campaign manager. This is not the message you want to send to people who read your stuff, namely those who probably will vote for Obama in the end.

I'll tell you, if I feel confident MY guy is going to win, that just makes me want to work THAT much harder for him.

[kitt6]

9. When they start going negative

I have no more to do with them.

[99th_Monkey]

10. I'm glad Mr. Reich is reminding Dems of some sobering realities.

I'm taking NOTHING for granted until election day and I hope
most Dems aren't either.

#5 anyone? ... Something Robert failed to mention, is that the GOP-
owned/controlled voting machines are still out there in huge numbers
and that issue was never adequately excavated, exposed and fully resolved,

The general public -- thanks to media silence -- is not sufficiently informed
on this issue or even remember what "Black Box Voting" means. My sense
is that where these machines still exist, they can fudge numbers up into the
high single digits (1%-8%) without being overly obvious.

I believe Obama only won because is was such a torrential landslide -- actually
1-8% bigger than was reported, or we'd be running against President McCain
this season..

[CrispyQ]

15. Agreed.

Your #5 coupled with Reich's #3 & it's never in the bag!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Take Note, folks. nt

[cbrer]

12. IF (big if) this article gives one idea to the Obama campaign

That would probably be that there's time to strategize.

And practice debates...

It gives ME the idea of performing "voter vigilante" guard duty. I can counter the hell out of Jim Crow and his toady tools.

[MannyGoldstein]

13. Reich is WRONG

This election is in the bag for Obama. We can all relax and stop campaigning.

Reich is clearly a Republican shill concern troll.

[goclark]

14. bag? ...no

Suppression...yes.....still possible

[magical thyme]

16. nothing wrong with lowering expectations ahead of the debates

Raising the bar for Romney, and lowering it for Obama is not a bad thing to do ahead of the debates.

Nothing is ever in the bag. We've just had such a wildly wonderful week, it's hard to come back down to earth.

We need to push harder than ever, and to push downticket as well.