Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip 04/01/24; WI, MT, PA, AZ, OH..........
I dread seeing WI on this list.
Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip
by Al Weaver - 04/01/24 6:00 AM ET
The Senate battlefield is increasingly locked in as Republicans turn their attention from the primaries to the November contests in a bid to turn the chamber red.
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Wisconsin
The entrance of Eric Hovde, a wealthy businessman, into the Wisconsin Senate race is giving the GOP something it hasn’t had since Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) first won her seat 12 years ago: a real chance at defeating her.
According to the latest Emerson/The Hill survey, Baldwin holds a 3-point advantage over Hovde, who is expected to spend in the neighborhood of $20 million of his own money on the contest. Hovde went on the air almost immediately after he announced his campaign and has been running television ads since.
Republicans are also heartened by some key numbers early on, including that Baldwin is short of 50 percent support in polls and that only 42 percent approve of her work, according to the latest Marquette Law School poll, taken in January.
Democrats, though, remain confident that Baldwin’s winning ways will continue and that she is doing everything she needs to.
They also constantly point to their ongoing attempt to define Hovde as an out-of-touch carpetbagger who is trying to nab the seat and isn’t “one of us.”
“The contrast there is great,” said a Democratic strategist with experience working on Senate races, pointing to Baldwin’s recent Dairyland tour and emphasis on rural areas. “Tammy talking about rural priorities and going to places Dems don’t always go in Wisconsin compared to a guy who flew in from California to try to buy a Senate seat.”
= new reply since forum marked as read
And even then, with one of the lowest percentages of adults registered to vote, I think the overturning of Roe could potentially keep the seat in WV blue.
I see very few media stories on the fact that senate races in Missouri, Florida and Texas are seeing Democrats get polling numbers that are shocking, and in all three cases, the Democratic candidate is either even, or in Florida, with a lead. Rueben Gallego has consistently outpolled Kari Lake, in Arizona, a lead that is growing, and a campaign fund that is, I think, one of the largest among Senate candidates. His support picked up when Kyrsten Sinema decided not to run again.
Beto O'Rourke's two runs in Texas, for Senate and Governor, were unsuccessful in getting him elected, but very successful in increasing the voter registration among Democratic constituencies. The fallout from Roe, and from the investigation into the Uvalde shooting has rallied Latinos to register. They're 51% of the population, but last time I saw a figure, they're about 32% of registered voters.
And Democrats don't seem to be having money problems this time around except, perhaps, finding enough places to spend it without saturating the market. I wonder if GOP senate candidates will have election funds now that a Trump is head of the committee. All that money will go to legal fees. 
