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Why the Islamists Are Not Winning in Libya
Why the Islamists Are Not Winning in Libya
Libya seems relentlessly committed to proving the pessimists wrong. When last year’s revolution quickly evolved into a brutal civil war, the international community — and indeed many Libyans — warned of a quagmire down the road. “God is great” served as the rebel battle cry in the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, and the jihadists the dictator had once repressed rose to prominence as militia leaders and politicians in the vacuum left by his fall. Libya has always been a conservative and largely homogenous country; its population of 6 million is almost entirely Sunni Muslim. And that’s why, when Libyans went to vote last weekend in the first national elections since 1965, many observers assumed — with good reason — that if neighboring Tunisia and Egypt had elected Islamist governments in the aftermath of their revolutions, surely Libya — of all places — would follow suit. But in the past 18 months since the start of the Arab Spring, Libya has also served as the Arab world’s anomaly: waging war when others waged protests, overthrowing an entire regime rather than simply its strongman, and most recently, demonstrating remarkable stability despite the odds. As election results trickle in this week, Libya appears poised to buck yet another Arab Spring trend: the Islamist rise.
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But many also point out that Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood, as well as Islamist militia leaders like Abdel Hakim Belhaj — once a terror suspect tortured and extradited by the CIA, and now the head of one of the better-organized political parties — never had the popularity that their counterparts had in neighboring Egypt. After all, Egypt’s ousted authoritarian leader, Hosni Mubarak, had allowed the Brotherhood to cultivate charity networks and even run for parliament. It may have all been part of a decades-long scheme to convince Egyptians and Egypt’s allies that the country’s options for governance were limited to two extremes, but the end result was that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood was more prepared. Gaddafi on the other hand never tolerated the Islamists — or even weak political parties. Men with beards or political sympathies were so regularly monitored and rounded up that many Libyans said it was a crime to be religious or have opinions. Few bothered to try.
That rise from exile and repression may have given Libya’s Islamists an early boost when it came to political organizing during the uprising, but it also meant that they were starting at square one — just like everybody else. When TIME met with one of the Muslim Brotherhood’s senior leaders in Tripoli late last year, he admitted that he had no idea how many members the group even had inside the country. “Yesterday was the first time we met in Tripoli not underground,” Alamin Belhaj said shortly after the rebels took control of the capital. “The Brotherhood has been around for a long time, since 1951. But after Gaddafi came, it vanished.”
Libya seems relentlessly committed to proving the pessimists wrong. When last year’s revolution quickly evolved into a brutal civil war, the international community — and indeed many Libyans — warned of a quagmire down the road. “God is great” served as the rebel battle cry in the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, and the jihadists the dictator had once repressed rose to prominence as militia leaders and politicians in the vacuum left by his fall. Libya has always been a conservative and largely homogenous country; its population of 6 million is almost entirely Sunni Muslim. And that’s why, when Libyans went to vote last weekend in the first national elections since 1965, many observers assumed — with good reason — that if neighboring Tunisia and Egypt had elected Islamist governments in the aftermath of their revolutions, surely Libya — of all places — would follow suit. But in the past 18 months since the start of the Arab Spring, Libya has also served as the Arab world’s anomaly: waging war when others waged protests, overthrowing an entire regime rather than simply its strongman, and most recently, demonstrating remarkable stability despite the odds. As election results trickle in this week, Libya appears poised to buck yet another Arab Spring trend: the Islamist rise.
...
But many also point out that Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood, as well as Islamist militia leaders like Abdel Hakim Belhaj — once a terror suspect tortured and extradited by the CIA, and now the head of one of the better-organized political parties — never had the popularity that their counterparts had in neighboring Egypt. After all, Egypt’s ousted authoritarian leader, Hosni Mubarak, had allowed the Brotherhood to cultivate charity networks and even run for parliament. It may have all been part of a decades-long scheme to convince Egyptians and Egypt’s allies that the country’s options for governance were limited to two extremes, but the end result was that the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood was more prepared. Gaddafi on the other hand never tolerated the Islamists — or even weak political parties. Men with beards or political sympathies were so regularly monitored and rounded up that many Libyans said it was a crime to be religious or have opinions. Few bothered to try.
That rise from exile and repression may have given Libya’s Islamists an early boost when it came to political organizing during the uprising, but it also meant that they were starting at square one — just like everybody else. When TIME met with one of the Muslim Brotherhood’s senior leaders in Tripoli late last year, he admitted that he had no idea how many members the group even had inside the country. “Yesterday was the first time we met in Tripoli not underground,” Alamin Belhaj said shortly after the rebels took control of the capital. “The Brotherhood has been around for a long time, since 1951. But after Gaddafi came, it vanished.”
Gaddafi's suppression, for better or for worse, of Islamist elements was certainly "better" than western efforts to try (I don't advocate such "suppression," I'm just observing how it appears to be). Of course, we see with other countries where the west supported dictators or totalitarians (Mubarak, Ben Ali; or a more historical example, the Taliban), the backlash is so extreme that the resulting society has to sort of fling itself back to normalization, as opposed to simply ousting the dictators and being done with it. Tunisia and Egypt's embrace of Islamists is unsurprising because the western backed dictators in those countries suppressed them for so long they wanted their voice to be heard.
Again for better or for worse (I imagine worse, simply because had there been no suppression perhaps things would look differently). Imagine if Christians were banned here in the United States. Take Teabagger style aggression and amplify it a thousand fold. Pow, you have highly fundamentalist crazies that are potentially far worse than Islamists. In that vein I consider them similar ideologically aligned groups. Hell, we've seen the graphics posted before comparing teabaggers to Islamists. Go ahead, advocate banning teabaggers, see what happens then.
In Libya I expect an Islamist element to grow to some small extent as Tunisia and Egypt have a cultural influence (they're nestled between two now-Islamist states; and many Egyptians work in Libya or will be working in Libya), but I think that Libya can have the opposite effect on Tunisia and Egypt, too, so I'm not totally pessimistic on that count. In the end it's better not to suppress a peoples because you do get that backlash. What differentiates Libya is that they had a real civil war, a real revolution, one in which many lives were lost and one in which revolutionary mechanisms could rise up.
As I expected early on, and as I was slandered as a liar, imperialist lackey, right winger, neocon, etc, the Islamist element would be marginalized by the more moderate Libyans. I spent so much trying to explain this to people but they just wouldn't listen to me. It's good to be vindicated. Welcome to Libya, the only state in the Arab world that shall be, at least in the short term, a non-Islamist democracy, without having to have a junta (see: Turkey) in place to suppress the religious elements. It remains to be seen how much influence the rest of the Arab world has on Libya with regards to that, though.
I'm optimistic. Naively, perhaps. But then, I can't judge a peoples solely on religious grounds.
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