How did Scott Walker win Wisconsin? By E.J. Dionne Jr.

[sinkingfeeling]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/how-did-scott-walker-win-wisconsin/2012/06/06/gJQAdCbVHV_blog.html

First, the gender gap can work both ways. Women voted for Democrat Tom Barrett while men voted for Walker. Indeed, Walker’s share of the vote among women was 12 points lower than his share among men. But he carried males by a landslide: 59 percent to 40 percent. Walker lost women much more narrowly, 52 percent to 47 percent. The lesson is that Republicans can survive a rather big gender gap as long as they win men overwhelmingly.

Second, Walker’s heavy early spending clearly helped him. The pre-election polls suggested that Barrett was closing in on Walker in the final days, and he clearly was. The exit poll found that eight percent of the voters said they decided how to vote in the last few days, and they went overwhelmingly for Barrett, 69 percent to 27 percent. The rest of the electorate that decided earlier went for Walker, 55 percent to 44 percent. It’s intriguing to imagine what Barrett might have done with more money that he could have spent earlier. Money matters.

That’s how President Obama managed to win a seven point lead over Mitt Romney in an electorate that was voting for Scott Walker. Roughly one Walker voter in six preferred Obama to Romney. Who were the Walker-Obama voters? An analysis by Jon Cohen, the Post’s polling director, found that this swing group was made up of more moderates than the electorate as a whole, and also more independents — not surprising for a swing group, but an important finding nonetheless. Turning out your own supporters is essential. But so is fighting for the pure swing voters.

[Jackpine Radical]

1. Gotta move to the right, gotta stifle those liberals…

Bullshit.

You gotta give people something to vote for, some hope. If EJ had been around to advise FDR, there would have been no New Deal.

"The middle will never go for it. The Republicans will kill you at the polls."

[sinkingfeeling]

4. Huh? He doesn't say that.

[aquart]

2. Scott Walker won Wisconsin because a majority of men are idiots?

[lumberjack_jeff]

5. That's one way of looking at it. One doomed to abject failure, but an option nonetheless.

Men and married women tend to vote as a bloc.

Single and married women have vastly dissimilar voting habits. Married women vote more like men than single women.

[Shagman]

3. the three things that win elections

money, money, money.

Walker had a lot more money, most of it from out of state.

It has always been possible to buy an election, but now it's easier.