'White Working Class Voters Are Finally Turning On Trump'
'White working class voters are finally turning on Trump.' By Martin Longman, Washington Monthly, Aug. 3, 2020, Alternet. - Excerpts, Edited:
When I wrote How to Win Rural Voters Without Losing Liberal Values for the Washington Monthly I was seeking a way for the Democrats to win back control.. It was part of my thesis that a party dependent primarily on affluent, well-educated suburbanites would do a poor job of being an advocate for working class men and women, irrespective of their race..I wanted the Democrats to pursue a broad front strategy, and I absolutely believed that Trumps complete dominance of white working class voters was reversible. I might have argued that Trump was certain to be such a colossal screw up that hed lose a significant chunk of his support, but that would have hardly created a blueprint for action.
I wasnt content to act on faith, which is why I emphasized the importance of Democrats taking antitrust enforcement seriously, in an effort to revitalize small business ownership and opportunity throughout small town America. As it turns out, the Democrats didnt have to do much of anything but sit back and let Trump alienate first the suburbs and now the remainder of the country...Actually, because while suburban seats formed the basis for the new Democratic House majority after the 2018 midterms, the Republicans actually lost a higher percentage of their support in safely red districts. The deplorable defection was significant two years ago, it just didnt have much of an effect. Its a process that has sped up and now threatens to have a huge effect.
- Harry Enten explains for CNN that white working class voters have turned on Trump to a significant degree:
Biden has clear leads in an average of the last three CNN approved polls in the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. On average, Biden is up by 9 points in Michigan, 11 points in Pennsylvania and 10 points in Wisconsin.
Bidens upward trajectory is because of vast improvements among White voters in a comparison of Bidens standing in each poll to how Clinton did with them
Still, the size of Bidens rise over Clinton in these states is clear enough that its well outside the range of any statistical anomaly.
- Michigan: Trump leads by an average of 3 points among White voters. Four years ago, Trump won amongst these voters by 15 points.
- Pennsylvania: Biden is ahead by 3 points with White voters. In 2016, Trump won them by 15 points.
- Wisconsin: Bidens up by 6 points with White voters. Last election, Trump took them by 7 points.
These are three important states, but the collapse of Trumps advantage with white voters is having an impact on races in every state, including GOP strongholds like TX, GA, AZ, and KS. It was never true that white working class voters were inseparably wed to Donald Trump. They still form his strongest group of support, but they were a bedrock part of the New Deal Democratic coalition for a reason. They knew the Republicans were the party for their factory bosses and distant plutocrats. They belonged to a working mans party until the economy stopped delivering them a decent lifestyle, and then they became susceptible to highly targeted media-driven efforts to appeal to their basest instincts and cultural alienation.
Theyre still susceptible to those messages, but theyre turning on Trump because hes manifestly terrible at his job.
It wont take too much of a defection for safe red districts and states to begin to fall in the Democrats column.
And that will have one big consequence. For the first time in a long time, the country will get less polarized. It will be less polarized geographically, and also less polarized by race and culture. As a result, the country will become more governable. There will be Democrats who dont want these voters in their coalition, just as there are Democrats who dont welcome the #NeverTrumpers..They wont be reliable allies or stalwart members of the base. But, on many economic issues, they can be crucial supporters...
More, https://www.alternet.org/2020/08/white-working-class-voters-are-finally-turning-on-trump/
OAITW r.2.0
(24,504 posts)I'm betting the results would be the same. She was right in 2016. And I hope Biden taps her for a very important role in his administration.
elleng
(130,949 posts)They still form his strongest group of support, but they were a bedrock part of the New Deal Democratic coalition for a reason. They knew the Republicans were the party for their factory bosses and distant plutocrats. They belonged to a working mans party until the economy stopped delivering them a decent lifestyle, and then they became susceptible to highly targeted media-driven efforts to appeal to their basest instincts and cultural alienation.'