'How Trump Could Take Away Obamacare With A 2nd Term,' Court Packing & Executive Authority
'How Trump Could Take Away Obamacare With a Second Term.' After packing the courts, the president’s use of executive authority will be more effective. By Julie Rovner, Magazine, Washington Monthly, April, May, June 2020. Ed.:
If I were Trump, I’m not sure I’d really want health care to be my headline legislative battle,” said Harold Pollack, a professor at the University of Chicago and an expert on health policy. Health care is the one issue where Democrats have a huge polling advantage, he continued. “Why foreground that if you can do other things?” Which is not to say that nothing will happen, he was quick to add. Health policy experts from across the political spectrum agree that if Trump wins a second term in the White House, health care may not be a legislative priority. Particularly if Democrats retain a majority in the House of Representatives.
There’s always the possibility that an external factor will spur action. A new disease threat—either the new coronavirus or some other highly contagious disease—could force the White House and Congress to work together to improve the nation’s public health infrastructure. Also looming is the insolvency of the Medicare trust fund, currently estimated to take place in 2026. The last two times Medicare was close to not being able to pay all its bills—in 1983 and 1997—Congress and the president (Reagan & Clinton, respectively) stepped in to shore up the program’s finances.
Then there are a handful of issues so important to the public that addressing them has gained bipartisan support in Congress. Finding a way to bring down drug prices has been a priority for both Congress and Trump, as has fixing the problem of “surprise” medical bills that show up when an insured patient receives health care outside of his or her insurance network. If these issues aren’t dealt with before the 2020 election, they will likely get rolled over onto the next Congress’s to-do list. If he’s unable to make much progress through legislation, Trump is likely to turn to a strategy Obama embraced in his second term: Use executive authority. “I’ve got a pen, I’ve got a phone,” Obama famously said. Since congressional Republicans and the Trump administration have failed to repeal and replace Obama’s signature health law, they’ve already adopted this approach.
-- Judges have blocked many of the administration’s rule changes, like its efforts to add work requirements to Medicaid. If Trump wins a second term, this trend might reverse. --
“Obamacare won’t be repealed, it will just rust away,” Pollack said. For example, the Trump administration has hobbled the state marketplaces where individuals can buy insurance, with a variety of small-scale policy changes. They cut nearly all the funding for staff to help people sign up for coverage through the marketplaces, and made it easier for consumers to buy cheaper plans elsewhere that may not cover preexisting conditions, one of the core ACA requirements. “The president and GOP see it as politically advantageous to have the marketplaces. Trump has already put forward a number of far-reaching initiatives only to have them halted by the courts. Proposals that would let states require Medicaid recipients to prove that they work or perform community service in order to keep their health insurance have been struck down in 3 states...
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https://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/april-may-june-2020/trumps-plan-take-away-obamacare-with-a-second-term/
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