Morgan Stanley is betting against Europe's weakest

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http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/19/morgan-stanley-bets-against-europe/?iid=SF_F_River

FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley is no "long"-er being PIIGy.

As of the end of the first quarter, Morgan (MS) was positioned to profit if the government debt of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain fell in value, essentially betting that financial condition in Europe's weakest nations is set to get worse. Morgan's biggest "bet" is against Portugal. But it would also benefit if prices of the government debt of Italy or Spain fell as well.

Overall, the "bet" isn't particularly large compared to the size of the firm and its other positions. And it appears Morgan could lose money if the debt of France and other European nations drops in value. Analysts and investors say they aren't focused on bet against Portugal and the other weaker European nations as a major risk, or source of profits, for the firm.

But the bet against the so-called PIIG nations is significant because it appears to be a shift for Morgan in its thinking on Europe. Back in September, shares of Morgan plunged on fears that it would lose tens of billions of dollars if the financial condition of Europe worsened. What's more, it's a relatively rapid shift. As recently as the end of 2011, Morgan Stanley had billions of dollars riding on the fact that he financial condition of the governments of Portugal and others would improve. The disclosure came today as part of the announcement of Morgan's first quarter earnings, which were better than expected.

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