Why Trump will lose in 2020

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

With unemployment at a 50-year low and the stock market near record highs, President Trump should be a shoo-in for reelection. He’s not.

In fact, Trump could very plausibly lose in November. Perhaps by a wide margin. Here are 4 reasons why:

The economy isn’t strong enough. There probably won’t be a recession by Election Day in November, but there will still be plenty of discontent. Income inequality has worsened under Trump, with the wealthy benefiting much more from a booming stock market than working- and middle-class Americans. Evidence continues to mount that Trump’s signature achievement, the 2017 tax-cut law, benefited businesses and the wealthy more than ordinary workers. Trump and other backers of the law insisted a boom in business spending would follow the tax cuts, but Moody’s Analytics found recently that just 20% of the corporate tax savings went to investment. The other 80% went to stock buybacks and dividend hikes that mainly benefit the shareholder class.

Economic growth under Trump peaked at 2.9% in 2018. It has slowed since then and will probably end 2019 around 2%, with even slower growth likely next year. That should be good enough to keep the unemployment rate low, but not necessarily enough for Trump to win. Trump’s net approval rating is -10.3, according to a Fivethirtyeight composite, which means his disapproval rating is about 10 points higher than his approval rating. Research by Alan Abramowitz of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shows that an incumbent with a -10 net approval rating needs economic growth of between 2% and 3% to win reelection. Trump probably won’t get that in 2020. There’s one other factor blocking the normal tailwind a president gets from a decent economy: Trump is the first president in 150 years running for reelection after being impeached.

https://news.yahoo.com/why-trump-will-lose-in-2020-133414780.html

[no_hypocrisy]

1. What about the Evangelical voting block?

They're hyped up and ready to vote tomorrow for Trump. They don't care what happens to them in THIS world. They care about life after death and Trump's been selling them the ultimate sell in death insurance.

My point: They may be a minority, but it's a significant minority and they'll vote to keep Trump.

[kurtcagle]

3. I'm not so sure

I actually suspect that the hard-core bible thumpers, for the most part, only make up about 15% of the population, and there's a fair amount of discontent even there between those who use their religious beliefs as an excuse to hate and those who passionately believe in the message of the Bible. Quite a few ministers have come out against Trump - they may believe that abortion is evil, but they do not want it to be this very flawed man to be the one to enact that.

[lees1975]

5. He's slowly lost some support among Evangelicals, enough to make a difference

https://nuntiatum.home.blog/2020/01/03/hoodwinked-by-a-con-man-2/

There have been some "prophetic voices" among the Evangelical Christian community who have been anti-trump from the beginning. Support is still strong, but it is slipping and he can't afford to lose the percentage of Evangelicals that he has lost up to this point. And while the "Christianity Today" editorial is not going to create a big rebellion against trump among Evangelicals, it is one of several signs of a wake up call that some are answering. The effects of wrapping themselves up in a person of such immorality and debauchery are being felt among Evangelicals, or at least, white Evangelicals.

[Crowman2009]

8. They're old & dying.

This so-called voting bloc is not getting any younger.

[FiveGoodMen]

11. And College Republicans will replace them

Every generation has its bad apples.

[jmowreader]

9. Trump's evangelical base is all prosperity gospel people

If you believe in Je$u$ then Trump is the guy for you.

If you believe a guy who tried to abort his own daughter is the guy to end abortion, Trump is the guy for you.

And if you believe shouting “Lord, Lord” instantly wipes away a lifetime of swindling, Trump is the guy for you.

But if you think a person should be held accountable for his actions, Trump is not for you.

[tulipsandroses]

2. I don't think the unemployment numbers are going to help him.The jobs that are out there

are low income jobs. People are having to to get 2nd and 3rd jobs to make ends meet. So yeah the working class are getting screwed. I went to pick up dinner this evening and ran into a co-worker. She wasn't having dinner, she was waitressing. After a long day at the community mental health clinic, she's waitressing till 11 pm then back to work at the clinic at 8 am tomorrow. So yeah. The rich got their tax cuts and working class folks got screwed.

[kurtcagle]

4. Yup

Recent BLS numbers indicate that while wages are up, hiring, in general, has flattened in the West and Northeast, is slowing in the Southeast, and the Midwest is already slipping back into recession. A lot of SMB companies are reporting rising wages, but my suspicion is that this is due to a shrinking workforce due to demographics coupled with a significant rise in inflation making it harder for companies to retain workers at their old salaries.

Another factor - if Trump does put us on a collision course to war with Iraq like he seems so hellbent to do, that's going to send oil prices skyrocketing again. That, in turn, will both accelerate and worsen the recession, as there's very little elasticity in the markets right now. Final thought - We will hear how well the Christmas season turned out around Feb 1, but my money is on it being a bust. Black Friday and online sales likely only served to move purchases forward.

[CaptYossarian]

6. Trump's loss will be based on two things:

1) If FOX news tells the truth about the economy.

Remember, if the Trump voters--perennial losers who don't expect to see financial gains during his first four years--give him a second chance to fix what immigrants and Obama "did to them", he'll have the same SECOND-PLACE VICTORY as in 2016.

They won't hear how the economy isn't strong enough, because of their addiction to RW propaganda on FOX.

2) The effect of tariffs (and the reality of the tax cuts for the rich) on farmers in those fly-over states could flip the ever-powerful Electoral College. Even without the FOX lies, pay stubs and receipts don't lie. And John Q. Public's Black Friday is when the tax refund check arrives in Spring. If the refund is miniscule, or the family suddenly had to pay in, that reality should also be a factor in voting him out.

A possible third factor is the hacking of voting machines--the TrumPutin Effect--that would guarantee a victory for the slimeball. If we all used paper ballots, it would keep things somewhat honest.

[jmowreader]

10. One receipt that definitely doesn't lie...

...is the one for the diesel you used to plow your crop under after Trump’s trade war made it unsalable.

[marble falls]

7. He'll lose because we will vote him out.