On world stage, Great Distruptor thrown off kilter
By David Ignatius
The Washington Post
President Trump has styled himself in foreign policy as the Great Disrupter. And for a time, this unpredictable approach served him reasonably well. Leaders from China, North Korea and Iran found themselves off balance, and they sometimes made what looked like concessions.
Trump’s problem is that, after two years, foreign nations seem to have figured him out. Rather than crafting quick deals that Trump could tout as wins, these adversaries have played a waiting game. They appear to sense in Trump an impatience and hunger for the spotlight that undermine his ability to negotiate.
Trump in recent weeks has moved toward confrontations with China, North Korea and Iran. In each case, the White House has maximum goals without a clearly discernible strategy for achieving them. Trump’s statements oscillate between hardline rhetoric and invitations to personal diplomacy. Sometimes he appears to contradict positions that his advisers have taken. Once, this back-and-forth might have produced leverage for Trump; now, it often just yields confusion.
Looking at the various global showdowns, you can see a common theme: of adversaries that appear more willing to take risks in resisting Trump’s demands. Trump’s response is often to double down. This dynamic carries a danger of miscalculation.
In the trade war with China, Trump embraced the perennial U.S. desire for a “level playing field.” But he pursued it with a blunderbuss, through escalating tariffs. Trump seemed convinced that China would eventually make concessions that he could claim as a victory. Such a deal seemed imminent this month, and Trump said on Monday that it was 95 percent done when Chinese leaders balked.
U.S. experts offer two theories about why China resisted a settlement. One is that Trump’s negotiators wouldn’t promise to remove promptly all tariffs imposed on $250 billion in Chinese products, and the Chinese didn’t trust an erratic American president to eliminate them eventually. Another theory is that Trump’s bravado had convinced the Chinese that he was actually in a weak position and could be pushed.
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