US government shutdown: Six ways it could end

[nitpicker]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46815227

US government shutdown: Six ways it could end

16 January 2019

President Donald Trump's standoff with Democrats over a border wall has dragged the US into the longest-ever government shutdown. Both sides appear to be dug in, so how might it end?

Mr Trump continues to call the border a national security crisis while Democrats say he is holding America hostage over an exaggerated threat.

As the nation waits for Washington to move forward, here are a few ways the situation could evolve. The BBC's Anthony Zurcher also chips in with his thoughts and his probability rating.

1. Things get so bad that Trump caves

Airport security staff, who have been working without pay since December, have begun leaving their jobs, according to officials. Terminals in some major airports have begun experiencing delays or are closing as a result. Food safety has also come into question as agencies struggle to operate. And on Tuesday the White House said it had doubled its estimate of the economic strain caused by the shutdown.

Mr Trump's public opinion is also suffering, according to new polling.

Anthony: There's always the possibility that the president could just throw in the towel. He did it when the heat became intolerable on his family-separation policy last year. He could do it again, if it becomes increasingly unlikely that Democrats are going to make concessions and the extended shutdown starts eating into the robust US economic growth that he frequently touts.

The big question would be whether his base would go along with this. Would they view a three-week shutdown as enough of an effort to fulfil this campaign promise? Mr Trump would certainly take heat from conservative commentators such as Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, but at some point the price of the shutdown might exceed the pain of backing down.

Chances: 20%

2. Trump strikes a deal with Congress

Mr Trump has been meeting congressional leaders but last week's attempts to resolve the shutdown ended with him walking out when Democrats refused to budge. But as it drags on, pressure is mounting on Capitol Hill.

Anthony: It's a testament to the determination of both sides in the shutdown confrontation that, for the most part, partisan ranks appear to be holding firm. A handful of Republicans in the House of Representatives have voted to reopen the government without wall funding, while the Republican leadership of the Senate has successfully squelched calls for a vote of any kind. Meanwhile, Democrats have been steadfast - at least publicly - in their resistance to any kind of wall funding.

That deadlock may not hold for much longer, however. As the pain from the shutdown spills out beyond just the 800,000 federal employees affected into the public at large, the pressure to reach any kind of a deal is growing.

In the end the most probable deal would involve some new, vaguely worded border security funding that doesn't explicitly give the president money for his much-promised wall. Both sides could declare victory, and both sides would be right (and wrong).

Chances: 40% and creeping up
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